Predicting 2022 win totals for Texas' G5 football programs

Courtesy of Houston Football

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Why wait for sports books across the country to release win totals for the 2022 season? Dave Campbell’s Texas Football attempts to set the over/under for each of the 12 FBS teams in the Lone Star State, continuing with the seven G5 programs in Texas. We examined the five Power Five programs earlier in the week. 

Houston

DCTF 2022 Win Total Projection: 11

2021 Final Regular Season Win Total: 11

Over or under? Under 

Betting on an undefeated season is a stretch regardless of program. The schedule, and the program’s returning talent, suggests it is possible, however. Trips to UTSA and Texas Tech to start the season are arguably the biggest stumbling block. The Cougars once again avoid Cincinnati in the regular season. To me, it is more likely that Houston starts the season 1-1 and slips up at least once in conference play than a 12-0 run into the AAC championship game. 

SMU

DCTF 2022 Win Total Projection: 8

2021 Final Regular Season Win Total: 8

Over or under? Under 

The first three games of the season – North Texas, Lamar, and Maryland – should allow Rhett Lashlee and his Mustangs to warm into his first season in charge. SMU also gets TCU at home in Week 4. The three toughest conference games – Cincinnati, Houston, and Memphis – are all at home. Still, four losses feel more plausible than nine wins. 

UTSA

DCTF 2022 Win Total Projection: 9

2021 Final Regular Season Win Total: 12

Over or under? Under 

The Roadrunners started a dream 2021 season at 11-0. The road is much tougher in 2022, and that’s without mentioning the loss of their best offensive and defensive player from a year ago. UTSA starts the year with games against Houston, Texas, and Army. Predicting anything better than a 1-2 start is optimistic. The team also travels to UAB during conference play. 

UTEP

DCTF 2022 Win Total Projection: 7

2021 Final Regular Season Win Total: 7

Over or under? Over 

The schedule sets up nicely for UTEP, possibly a reward for remaining in Conference USA. The Miners don’t play UAB or Western Kentucky. North Texas must travel to El Paso in Week 0, and the out-of-conference schedule includes two winnable games. The Miners return their starting quarterback and the core of a stingy defense. 

North Texas

DCTF 2022 Win Total Projection: 6

2021 Final Regular Season Win Total: 6

Over or under? Under 

Questions at quarterback keep me from believing in North Texas. I’d bet a push here or avoid the bet altogether if it is set at six wins because a bowl game is reachable for the Mean Green. A 1-3 start is quite possible with games against SMU, UTEP, and Memphis over the first four contests of the season. CUSA play includes trips to Western Kentucky and UTSA. 

Rice 

DCTF 2022 Win Total Projection: 5

2021 Final Regular Season Win Total: 4

Over or under? Under 

An out-of-conference schedule that includes USC, Louisiana, and Houston make reaching bowl eligibility tough for the Owls. Rice was two overtime losses away from six wins in 2021, and while the roster is the best under Mike Bloomgren, it might not be enough to reach the six-win requirement for the postseason. 

Texas State

DCTF 2022 Win Total Projection: 5

2021 Final Regular Season Win Total: 4

Over or under? Over  

More consistency at the quarterback position and added depth to both sides of the ball might signal a six-win season for Texas State. This is an important season for head coach Jake Spavital and the Bobcats. 

 

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