How did the DCTX Staff Playoff Predictions Pan Out?

These Regional Championship picks were made at the beginning of the TXHSFB Playoffs

6A DI

Best Bracket: Hartley and Pickle tied at 100%

Wildest Bracket: Tepper for picking North Forney to win first-ever Regional Championship and San Antonio Johnson to win second

Heat Check Pick: Stepp picking Fort Bend Ridge Point to defeat North Shore in Round 2 and then win state. 

It would’ve been the first time North Shore fell in Round 2 since 2011. This year was a reminder North Shore is the Houston team of record. I’m sure some of us will forget and pick against them next year.

Bracket Buster: Allen Eagles

Allen is the only Region Champ that did not receive a majority of picks to win the Region. This would’ve been absurd a decade ago.

The Eagles won the Region Championship every season from 2012 to 18, but were grounded for seven years. North Crowley’s 35-7 win over Allen in the 2024 playoffs and 49-37 win in the 2023 playoffs represented the gap between the state’s largest school and the top teams in the largest classification.

But Allen’s defense is built different in 2025. The Eagles’ secondary was a ‘No-Fly Zone’, limiting North Crowley to just 89 passing yards on 8-of-22 completions. It’s the second week in a row Allen has held the opponent under 100 passing yards.

6A DII

Best Bracket: Tepper at 75%

Other than everyone correctly predicting Southlake Carroll to win Region I, the Dave Campbell’s staff went 3-for-18. Yikes.

Best Pick: Tepper being the only one to pick DeSoto picking Region II 

Coach Claude Mathis said after DeSoto’s 0-2 start, his team heard all the whispers that it was the end of an era. After making four consecutive Regional Championship games, many thought DeSoto was done after losing 70-28 to Creekside (GA) in Week 1 and then falling to North Crowley for a second year in a row.

But DeSoto is playing some of the best football in the entire state during the playoffs. The Eagles are averaging 59.75 points per game, and RB SaRod Baker had one of the best performances in program history with 384 rushing yards and seven touchdowns.

Worst Bracket, In Hindsight: Yates picking Austin Westlake and Longview

Austin Westlake lost in the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2014, while Longview got blasted 60-28 to eventual Region II Champion DeSoto in the second round. 

Heat Check Pick: Powers picking Forney to win Region II

After becoming the hipster pick this season for the toughest DFW District, 10-6A fell flat in the playoffs. Forney (third round) made it the farthest out of all the district teams, while three District 11-6A teams (Duncanville, Waxahachie, DeSoto) made the fourth round.  

Bracket Buster: Austin Vandegrift

It’s funny that last year’s Class 6A DII State Champion became this year’s Class 6A DII bracket buster. But Austin Vandegrift’s first-round matchup against Austin Westlake, combined with sharing a Region with a Dripping Springs team that they lost 41-14 in the regular season to, threw us off the scent.

Austin Vandegrift’s championship experience, combined with a hunger to avenge an embarrassing loss, propelled a 27-20 win over Dripping Springs in the Class 6A Region IV Championship. Coach Drew Sander’s defense forced a fumble inside Dripping Springs’ five-yard line with a 20-13 lead. That unit has surrendered just 12 points per game in the playoffs and will have a box office matchup with Sheldon C.E. King’s high-powered offense.

5A DI

Best Bracket: Tepper and Pickle tied at 100%

Heat-Check Pick: Hartley picking Pflugerville Weiss to win the Region, thereby upsetting clear favorite (and Matt Stepp's state championship) La Porte in Round One

Bracket Buster: N/A 

Honeslty, a chalky bracket. New Braunfels and Barbers Hill were both named Cinderella teams, but each fell in the Regional Championship.

5A DII

Best Bracket: Hartley, Pickle and Stepp tied at 75%

Heath Check Pick: Tepper picking Gregory-Portland to win first Region Championship since 2002

Tepper went out on a limb with both Gregory-Portland and Port Neches-Groves. PN-G made the Region Championship despite losing senior QB Connor Bailey to injury in the playoffs, while Gregory-Portland lost 38-7 in the third round to eventual Region IV Champion Boerne.

Bracket Buster: Melissa

One year after being one of the most unexpected teams to miss the playoffs at 6-4, Melissa became one of the most unexpected teams to win the Region.

Melissa took down Argyle 20-19, whom three of our six panelists picked to win the Region, despite playing the first half without star QB Brett Holloway. Holloway, who was ejected in the second half of Melissa’s third-round game against Anna, had to sit out the first half.

Holloway entered the game down 13-7 and rushed for 134 yards and two touchdowns, putting Melissa up 20-19 with 1:56 left in the fourth quarter. Argyle K Carter Stebbins, who was a perfect 4/4 up to that point, missed a 31-yard game-winning field goal.

4A DI

Best Bracket: Hartley and Pickle tied at 100%

Hartley and Pickle went 100% on Class 6A DI and Class 4A DI, for those keeping track at home.

Heat Check Picks: Carter picking Canyon West Plains to win first State Championship and Frisco Panther Creek to win first Region Championship

Canyon West Plains was my preseason state championship pick, and the Wolves did nothing to dissuade me after losing one game in the regular season to a stacked Argyle Liberty Christian ball club. I believed Frisco Panther Creek would avenge its regular season loss to Celina, but the Panthers fell in Round 2 to Springtown. Leave it to the guy who wrote the Celina gatefold cover feature to be the only one to pick against them. 

Bracket Buster: La Vernia

In two years as head coach, Brian Null has led La Vernia to the first two state semifinal appearances in program history.

But these Bears look different from last year’s squad. Sean Garza, who rushed for 2,120 yards as a junior, is now playing strong safety. QB Cooper Null, who played free safety as a sophomore, had 237 rushing yards and four total touchdowns in a 38-27 victory over San Antonio Davenport.

While not a Cinderella story (three of our panelists picked them to win the Region), La Vernia is a bracket buster in one of the chalkiest brackets.

4A DII

Best Bracket: Stepp and Pickle at 75%

Heat Check Pick: Tepper picking Midland Greenwood to win Region I and Yates picking Bellville to win Region III

Tepper made no secrets about being a Greenwood guy all season, and the Rangers made it all the way to the Region I Final, where it fell 35-14 against Brock. On the other hand, my heat check pick fell in the first round to China Spring, a team who's head coach I placed on the "Most to Prove" list in the off-season. Tyler Beatty made me eat my words.  

Bracket Buster: West Orange-Stark

Last year, Waco La Vega lost to West Orange-Stark in the regular season and got revenge in the playoffs, en route to the Class 4A DII State Championship Game. In 2025, West Orange-Stark lost to Waco La Vega in the regular season and beat them in the Region III Championship.

West Orange-Stark started 2-3 in non-district play but has reeled off nine straight wins, including the District 9-4A DII Championship. Still, all but one of our panelists picked Waco La Vega to repeat as Region Champions, and no one picked West Orange-Stark. The Mustangs’ defense forced three turnovers and RB Khelvy Jefferson rushed for three touchdowns in a 35-20 win. 

The turning point of the game was West Orange-Stark’s Ja’Cuincy Walker’s 70-yard pick-six on 4th and 10. Waco La Vega was up by eight at that point, but West Orange-Stark reeled off 23 unanswered points.

3A DI

Best Bracket: Yates at 50%

I did the Class 3A DI rankings all season, so it's fitting I took the grand prize of being least-wrong in this wild bracket. Our staff went a combined 5-and-24 on Regional Champion picks, and no one correctly predicted Region II or III (more on that later).

Heat Check Pick: Stepp and Yates picking Peaster

This bracket was full of logo three-point attempts by the staff, so I'm picking the one that actually clanged in. Peaster avenged its regular-season loss to Paradise with a 17-14 win in the Region I Championship. Peaster, which began varsity play in 2019, has reached the state semifinals for the first time in program history behind one of the state's best defenses. The Greyhounds have allowed double-digit points in just three of their 14 games.

Bracket Busters: Grandview and Yoakum

None of our panelists picked Grandview or Yoakum to win the region. 

Grandview has been one of the most slept-on teams in Class 3A DI all season, never cracking the top 10 despite a 12-2 record. The Zebras went down 15-0 to Pottsboro before going on a 27-3 run in the second half for the victory. Grandview has now beaten Pottsboro in the playoffs in three of the last four seasons. 

Yoakum, on the other hand, ended a nine-game losing streak to Columbus with a 20-14 win in the Region III Championship. SMU WR commit X’zavier Barnett had two touchdowns, while freshman phenom Germarquis Robinson notched his 20th of the season.Yoakum is now in the state semifinals for the first time since 2018. 

3A DII

Best Bracket: Hartley, Pickle, Powers, Tepper and Yates tied at 75%

Heat Check Pick: Stepp taking Troup in to win first Region Championship since 2004

Troup fell in the third round to eventual Region II Champion Newton, 46-13. The 12-win season was still the program’s highest win total since 2004 when it made the state championship. 

Bracket Buster: East Bernard

A month after losing 59-6 in the District 14-3A DII Championship Game, East Bernard exacted revenge on one of the preseason State Championship favorites, Tidehaven, in a 34-31 win. 

The Brahmas are in the midst of a magical run after starting the season 0-3. East Bernard has beaten three state-ranked teams after entering the playoffs unranked. The Brahmas beat  Poth in the second round on a reverse and lateral kickoff return, then crushed Lexington 45-21. The latest miracle was a win over 13-point favorite Tidehaven after falling behind 31-19, arguably the biggest 11-man football upset in the Regional Finals. 

2A DI

Best Bracket: Powers at 50%

Heat Check Pick: Powers picking Hamilton to repeat at Region II Champions

Hamilton won Region II last year, but we were thrown off the scent by a two-point loss to Crawford (finished 10-2) and San Saba (finished 6-5). Well, all except Powers, who looked back at recent history to power through with Hamilton. Cisco, whom Powers picked in Region I, was also the only champion selection to make the Regional Final. 

Bracket Busters: Joaquin and Stinnett West Texas

Joaquin has been the most improbable team to reach the state semifinals in back-to-back years, making it as a four-seed in 2024 before reaching the fifth-round as a three-seed this year. The Rams beat Honey Grove in round 2, knocking out four of our panelists' Region Champion pick, then ran all over Elysian Fields in a 74-21 win in Round 3. Joaquin most recently avenged a regular season loss to San Augustine in the Region III Championship. If the Slot-T is the devil, then Joaquin has made the Class 2A DI playoffs a nightmare for opponents. 

Stinnett West Texas is the Cinderella story of the entire TXHSFB playoffs. This is the Comanches' first state semifinal appearance since 1995. Down 14-8 to Cisco, Stinnett West Texas QB Cayde Winters powered his team to a 48-20 win. Winters, a senior, has been a star for years, but is turning into a household name across the state.

2A DII

Best Bracket: Yates at 75%

Heat Check Pick: Yates picking Gruver to win Region I

We knew Gruver would have a high-powered offense with the return of star QB Briggs Satterfield and a plethora of skill position players. But the emergence of sophomore LB Bo Cowan to pair with returning star Victor Flores has been the story of the playoffs. Gruver's defense is allowing just 12 points per game in the playoffs. 

Bracket Buster: Mount Enterprise

Not only has Mount Enterprise busted our brackets, but running back Kaegan Ash has busted the TXHSFB record books. The Texas Tech signee just passed TXHSFB Hall of Famer Kenneth Hall's single-season rushing yards mark of 4,045 yards, which was set 72 years ago. Ash is only 90 yards away from Hall's all-time rushing yards mark of 11,232 career yards. Behind Ash, Mount Enterprise upset Bremond 64-58 in the Region III Final.

Final Grades

The Duchess of the Dorks lives up to her name.

Pickle: 26/40 (65%)
Hartley: 24/40 (60%)
Powers: 22/40 (55%)
Yates: 22/40 (55%)
Stepp: 21/40 (52.5%)
Tepper: 19/40 (47.5%)