The Blitz: Analyzing the decline of passing offense in the Lone Star Conference

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The list of outstanding recent Lone Star Conference quarterbacks includes some of the greatest players in conference history. Kyle Washington (Angelo State), Dustin Vaughan (West Texas A&M), Brandon Kelsey (Midwestern State), Luis Perez (Texas A&M-Commerce), Layton Rabb (Midwestern State), and Ben Holmes (Tarleton) are quarterbacks who won Lone Star Conference Player of the Year from 2011-2019. 

Fans watching NCAA Division II football during that time witnessed some of the best offenses in the history of the storied conference. However, fans, coaches, and media members alike are curious why the offenses in the LSC have struggled since the pandemic.

The numbers over the last two years show a decline. Many teams had experienced players returning in 2021, even if they were rusty from not adhering to the routine they had become accustomed to in college. That season, four offenses averaged 30 or more points. That number fell to three teams in 2022 if you round up slightly to include Texas A&M-Kingsville (29.9).

This season, UTPB has one of the best offenses in the country and is averaging 50.3 points per game. Angelo State is second (34.3 ppg), and Eastern New Mexico (31.1) is the only other LSC team to meet the 30-point average. 

The problem lies with a deterioration in the passing game. From 2013-2019, at least two LSC teams averaged more than 250 yards passing per game, with as many as five teams topping the mark in 2016. The passing attack has recently struggled, with only Western New Mexico topping the 250-yard average in the last two seasons. UTPB has joined the Mustangs, averaging 266 passing yards per game this year.

What is the one consistent between WNMU the previous three years and the Falcons this season compared to the rest of the conference? An experienced quarterback. Mustangs quarterback Devin Larsen has led the LSC in passing yards for the last three seasons. Kenny Hrncir at UTPB currently sits atop the leaderboard this year. Last year, Hrncir led East Central to a win over Texas A&M-Kingsville in the RV Fun Town Heritage Bowl.

So, how can experience be an issue in the LSC, especially in the age of the transfer portal? The portal may be one of the reasons for the decline, along with players accepting Priority Walk-On (PWO) offers at Division I schools and quitting football when it doesn’t work out instead of continuing their careers at a lower division.

“The transfer portal is the problem,” one LSC head coach said. “If you have a decent quarterback in DII now, the backup will transfer instead of sticking around to develop and gain a command of the offense.”

In all scenarios, the issue seems to be a lack of development. We might also be seeing another effect of the pandemic along with the super senior syndrome. Players at all levels could not spend as many hours training and practicing during the pandemic, which has helped decrease passing numbers.

The average DII offense this season averages 205 passing yards per game. The LSC only has three teams (WNMU, UTPB, and ASU) above the average. One team won’t be counted in this exercise since Eastern New Mexico has only attempted 76 passes this season. Still, five teams are averaging 165 yards or less passing per game.

The worst of the bunch is Midwestern State. The Mustangs have completed 42.9 percent of their passes for 419 yards in six games this season, which is at the bottom of DII. MSU sits among the bottom three teams in three different NCAA DII passing categories, including average yards per completion (8.22) and team passing efficiency (73.4). It’s not what we’ve come to expect from a Bill Maskill offense.

What is the solution? No coach I spoke with had a perfect answer, but some believe the NCAA placing limits on the transfer rules may help, while others believe the answer may fall on offensive coaches.

“We always talk about the complexity of offensive playbooks and how it takes a while to feel comfortable running a new system with a new language,” one coach said. “It might be time for offensive coaches to simplify the playbook so guys can perform better and think less moving forward.”

Another head coach said the solution might include a mixture of techniques.

“I agree that we might need to make the offensive playbook more simple for our players to learn when they transfer in,” he said. “But we also need to continue to figure out how to get these guys we recruit to stay and develop rather than leave.”

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