Best Case, Worst Case for 2024: Texas Tech Red Raiders

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With spring football and the portal movement slowing down (fingers crossed) forecasting the 2024 season becomes an easier proposition. The 13 FBS programs in the Lone Star State share a common feeling heading into June: Hope. New faces and new opportunities provide a fresh slate for rosters and coaching staff. 

The 2024 season is a new day for the Great State. Texas reunites with Texas A&M in the SEC and SMU joins the P4 as ACC members. But what are the best- and worst-case scenarios for each team in the upcoming season? We’ll breakdown at each one.

Previous best/worst case scenario pieces for 2024: Texas | Texas A&M | UTSA | Texas State | TCU | Rice 


2023 record: 7-6, win in Texas Bowl 
2024 schedule 
Aug. 31                 Abilene Christian         
Sept. 7                  at Washington State  
Sept. 14                North Texas     
Sept. 21                Arizona State 
Sept. 28                Cincinnati         
Oct. 5                    at Arizona          
Oct. 19                  Baylor                   
Oct. 26                  at TCU                  
Nov. 2                    at Iowa State  
Nov. 9                    Colorado           
Nov. 23                  at Oklahoma State     
Nov. 30                  West Virginia

Best case for 2024: Texas Tech must buck two trends to reach its ceiling in 2024. First, the Red Raiders must get off to a successful start. They were 2-3 after five games in 2022 – the first for head coach Joey McGuire. And they started last season 1-3. Second, McGuire’s club must get better away from Lubbock. Tech is 3-8 on the road since the start of 2022. The 2024 schedule sets up for them to reverse that narrative with a non-conference schedule that includes home games versus Abilene Christian and North Jones. The lone road trip is to Washington State. 

The other key to Texas Tech’s success is the health of quarterback Behren Morton. The offense has started multiple quarterbacks in each of McGuire’s first two years and Morton was shut down halfway through spring to save his arm for the fall. Running back Tahj Brooks and improved personnel at wide receiver and offensive line should unlock the offense. If the defense finds some playmakers, the Red Raiders are in the group right behind Utah and Kansas State as contenders for the Big 12 crown. 

Worst case for 2024: The good news about the Big 12 is that Texas Tech can win every game. The bad news is that the inverse is true. The Red Raiders are amongst a log-jammed middle of the Big 12 pecking order and predicting the outcome of the world’s largest continual barfight (shoutout Spencer Hall) is for fools. Road games against Arizona, Iowa State, TCU, and Oklahoma State are all coin flips, at best. Home games against Colorado and West Virginia aren’t slam dunks. 

McGuire has posted a winning record in conference play and went to a bowl game during his first two seasons. Something below 6-6 feels hard to envision, but that outcome becomes more possible if Morton can’t play most of the games or Brooks suffers an injury. Most teams in the Big 12 are stuck somewhere between contention and fighting for a .500 record and the Red Raiders are in that group until proven otherwise.  

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