It's the first week of the 2023 Texas high school football season, with 700+ games scattered across the state. There are favorites...but who could spring the upset?

Using DCTF's computer projections, DCTF managing editor Greg Tepper identifies three teams that could pull the upset in the first round.

A&M Consolidated at Huntsville
A&M Consolidated projected to win by 8 (68.1% win probability)

The Tigers of A&M Consolidated are firmly in the “sleeper” category entering the 2023 season, starting the year 27th in our preseason comprehensive computer rankings in Class 5A Division I. Coming off a 9-3 season, the Tigers are under new management as Brandon Schmidt takes over, fresh off a very successful run at Prosper. But a trip out to the woods to take on Huntsville is far from a welcome present, as the Hornets will boast a resurgent defense led by CB Isaiah Collins and LB Shilo Jones. That could prove troublesome for a Tigers team that is replacing a pair of key offensive linemen and a number of other nuts-and-bolts pieces. Furthermore: Huntsville is 8-1 in their last nine home openers.

El Paso Montwood at Midland
Midland projected to win by 4 (51.7% win probability)

A classic West Texas cross-regional matchup will put El Paso Montwood on a five-hour bus ride to Grande Communications Stadium in Midland, but don’t let the road trip fool you — this is a coin-flip game. Montwood welcomes back 15 starters from last year’s squad, most notably receiver Diego Oaxaca, one of the state’s most dangerous playmakers. They’ll draw a Midland team that still may be a year away, and will be working in a new quarterback in Stroman Bridges, who moves over from receiver. That could give new Montwood coach Ivan Rangel, the former defensive coordinator, an opportunity to flex his schematic muscles to make Bridges uncomfortable.

Richmond Foster at Richmond George Ranch
George Ranch projected to win by 7 (69.6% win probability)

The Shane Hanks era begins for Foster, as the former defensive coordinator takes over for Shaun McDowell, who is off to Conroe Grand Oaks. His first task is a crosstown rivalry game against 6A George Ranch, but the Falcons look like a squad that matches up well against their larger Lamar Consolidated ISD bunkmate. George Ranch’s biggest strength should be on their offensive line, led by massive tackle Braden Cain; but Foster’s biggest strength may be their own defensive front, where end CJ White and tackle Chijokie Nwankwo may be able to neutralize the Longhorns’ push. From there, it’ll be up to new offensive weapons like running back Cannon Kempwerth to spring the 5A over 6A upset.