Week 10 provided plenty of narratives in the college football landscape, especially in the Lone Star State. Each of the 12 FBS programs from Texas were in action. The group went 7-5 with three of those losses coming to fellow Texas programs. TCU knocked off Texas Tech. Rice escaped UTEP. And SMU raced past Houston. 

The 411 provides four truths, one question, and one prediction as we begin to turn the page towards Week 11 of the 2022 college football season. 

FOUR TRUTHS 

Texas, Baylor capable of winning the Big 12: Obituaries are often written too early in the college football world where everything unfortunately revolves around the College Football Playoffs. Texas and Baylor were left for dead following two early Big 12 losses. The Longhorns continued to blow second half leads, while the Baylor defense struggled to create turnovers. Those issues appear to be in the rear-view mirror, at least for now. Texas and Baylor sit in a three-way tie for second place in the Big 12 with Kansas State following Week 10. 

The Bears are on a three-game winning streak thanks to rejuvenated rushing attack and a greedy defense. With Richard Reese struggling through the flu, Craig “Sqwirl” Williams emerged as the lead back in a 38-35 road win over Oklahoma. He ran for 192 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries. Baylor averaged 5.9 yards a carry on 48 attempts in the win. Baylor essentially controls its own destiny to reach the Big 12 title game with Kansas State, TCU, and Texas remaining on the regular season schedule. 

The Longhorns exorcised another demon in 2022 by holding on to a lead against Kansas State. It was only the second true road win in eight tries for Texas under Steve Sarkisian. The other win was over a TCU program in 2021 that fired its coach before the end of the year. Sark reigned in his preferred play-calling style to lean on Bijan Robinson, who ran the ball 30 times for over 200 yards. The young offensive line is starting to become a strength of the team. Texas hosts TCU in Week 11 before traveling to Kansas in Week 12 and playing Baylor to close out the regular season. 

Both Baylor and Texas would be favored in a neutral site setting against TCU if either reached the Big 12 title game. 

Development an issue at Texas A&M: The Aggies brought in 32 freshmen in the 2022 recruiting cycle that ranked first in the nation and was considered by many in the recruiting industry to be the best class of the modern era. So far, so good for the true freshman. Texas A&M has played 22 of those 32 players, and 10 have earned starts. Guys such as Evan Stewart, Conner Weigman, Donovan Green, and Bryce Anderson appear to be keystones to the future in College Station. A future that is now the present thanks to another loss in 2022. The Aggies are 3-6 with three games left. And while reaching a bowl game would be nice, making sure the team is poised for a real run in 2023 is the key. 

Every outlet that covers college football, including this one, has spilled ink on the offensive situation in College Station. Something must change in the offseason. And that something is Jimbo Fisher hiring a true offensive coordinator who can call plays and put in a fresher system. However, that is not the only problem. The high-end recruits from the 2020 and 2021 class are simply not performing to expectation. The 2021 class ranked ninth in the nation. The 2020 class was sixth. Even the class back in 2019 ranked fifth. There is no reason Texas A&M should be relying on this many young pieces. 

Run the ball, Red Raiders: Zach Kittley likes to throw the ball around the yard. He set records as an offensive coordinator at Houston Baptist (now Houston Christian) and Western Kentucky with Bailey Zappe at the helm. Zappe threw the ball 686 times in 2021 at Western Kentucky. And it feels at times like Kittley wants to revert to that style of offense even if it doesn’t suit the current Texas Tech personnel. Kittley doesn’t have a Zappe or a Patrick Mahomes, like he did as the quarterbacks coach at Texas Tech back in 2018. His current quarterbacks, and the offensive linemen that protect them, simply aren’t good enough to drop back and pass on obvious downs. 

The Red Raiders seemed aware of this early in the game against TCU. Texas Tech ran 33 plays in the first half against the Horned Frogs. Twenty-two of those were run plays. But when Behren Morton was replaced by Tyler Shough at quarterback after the freshman picked up a leg injury, the game plan seemingly changed. Morton only threw the ball 10 times in the first half. Shough ended the game with 22, and that was with Texas Tech leading or within one possession for most of the second half. 

The weird part was that Texas Tech was experiencing success with the run game. Tahj Brooks and Sa’Rodorick Thompson combined for 18 carries and 105 yards. Both averaged at least 5.8 yards a game. Cameron Valdez added 71 yards on three attempts. Even with four sacks allowed Texas Tech averaged five yards a carry. 

Texas Tech is 4-5 and have lost four of its last five contests. The team is 0-4 on the road, though, each of those losses was to a ranked team at the time. Texas Tech needs two wins in its last three to reach a bowl game. To do so, Kittley must lean on the running game and control his own preferences. 

UTSA, Frank Harris does it again: The accepted knowledge is that one-possession games are essentially coin flips. Eventually, a team will regress to the mean and wind up at around .500 in close contests. Not UTSA. The Roadrunners keep thriving in pressure situations, this time knocking off UAB on the road in double overtime despite allowing the Blazers to erase a 14-point fourth quarter deficit. They are now 17-6 in one-possession games under Jeff Traylor. He’ll credit the 210 Triangle of Toughness, and that’s probably a huge factor, but another important cog in the program’s ability to win close games is its quarterback. 

Harris almost gave up football early in his college career because his body kept breaking down. He stuck with it, even through a coaching change, and he’s emerged as the most reliable and clutch player in the state of Texas. Harris threw for four touchdowns and zero interceptions in the 44-38 win over UAB. He also ran for 35 yards. Two of those touchdown passes came in overtime, including the game-winner to Joshua Cephus in the second overtime period. 

ONE QUESTION 

Is Houston in the worst position to enter the Big 12? 

The Cougars dropped to 5-4 on the season after giving up 70 points on the road in a loss to SMU. Houston entered the season with conference championship expectations following a 12-win 2021. The results haven’t matched. Houston is 3-2 in AAC play and on the outside looking in for the conference crown. That poses the obvious question – was 2021 just the exception to the rule for Dana Holgorsen at Houston. The Cougars are 24-19 in his four seasons in charge. Take away 2021 and that record is 12-17 in the other three years, including this one. 

Houston joins the Big 12 in 2023 alongside Cincinnati, BYU, and UCF. An argument could be made that the Cougars are in the worst position for the step up. Cincinnati is 40-7 since the start of 2019. UCF is 32-13 and BYU is 33-15. Houston is only 24-19. Recruiting also paints a dim picture for Houston. The 2023 class currently ranks 64th in the nation, which is behind Cincinnati (25), BYU (53), and UCF (57). The three-year recruiting average also points to the Cougars coming up fourth in that group with an average national ranking of 66.3 starting with the 2021 cycle. Cincinnati is at 37.3 during that span, while UCF is 55.6 and BYU checks in at 62. 

ONE PREDICTION 

North Texas wins C-USA 

The Mean Green are wins over UAB and Rice away from reaching the C-USA championship game and earning a rematch against a UTSA squad that won the regular season meeting in the final seconds of the game. Austin Aune is playing the best football of his long life. The almost-30-year-old became a hot topic on the internet as the football world seemingly learned his age. The Aune vs. Frank Harris matchup added up to 53 years, which might make it the oldest quarterback pairing in a college football game. If the two teams met again on Saturday, I think I’d pick North Texas to win. It is hard to beat a rivalry twice in the same season.