Small College Predictions: Sam Houston State faces biggest home game of season; Top 10 bout at Tarleton

Sam Houston State (Photo by Kelly Guess)

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GAME: No. 9 Nicholls (4-2, 3-0) at Sam Houston State (4-3, 3-1)

WHEN: Saturday at 2 p.m. at Elliot T. Bowers Stadium in Huntsville, Texas. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+.

WHY IT MATTERS: The biggest game of the SHSU season is at home this week. The Kats are coming off a tough triple-overtime loss to conference foe Lamar last week while Nicholls has played better football over the last few weeks. The big question mark in this game is the health of the Kats quarterback Ty Brock, who is the only remaining quarterback on the roster ready and healthy enough to play. Brock has been nursing an ankle injury and SHSU is trying a different protocol with him this week as they try and get him closer to full strength for this game. The Bearkats have possibly the best defense in their program history and will rely on their defense to keep them in the game this week.

INSIDE THE STATS: Nicholls offense has been above average this season as they have averaged 0.470 Points Per Play (PPP) and 13.1 yards per point while the Colonels defense has struggled at times allowing 0.486 PPP and 13.7 yards per point. The SHSU offense has also been above average averaging 0.428 PPP and 12.3 yards per point while the Kats defense has been outstanding allowing only 0.243 PPP and 17 yards per point.

COMPUTER PREDICTION: Sam Houston State 33, Nicholls 25

 

GAME: No. 20 Texas A&M-Commerce (4-1, 3-0) at No. 4 Tarleton (6-0, 4-0)

WHEN: Saturday at 6 p.m. at Lonn Reisman Athletic Center at Memorial Stadium in Stephenville, Texas.

WHY IT MATTERS: I have had this game circled on my calendar since the conference schedule was released. This will be the fourth meeting in the last two years between these programs and the stakes are high once again. The winner of this game will take control of the Lone Star Conference race could ensure a playoff game at home. Tarleton ended a six-game Lions winning streak in the series with a regular-season win at Commerce, Texas and followed by eliminating the Lions from the playoffs with a classic 34-28 win in the second round of the playoffs. This year’s game will feature two of the top three defensive teams in the country and could provide another classic finish.

INSIDE THE STATS: Both teams have been outstanding on offense and defense with TAMUC averaging 0.796 Points Per Play (PPP) and eight yards per point while the Lions defense has only allowed 0.412 PPP and 10.2 yards per point. The Tarleton offense has averaged 0.748 PPP and 9.9 yards per point while the Texans defense has been stingy allowing only 0.243 PPP and 14.7 yards per point.

COMPUTER PREDICTION: Tarleton 33, Texas A&M-Commerce 26

 

GAME: Trinity (3-2, 2-1) at Millsaps 4-2, 2-2)

WHEN: Saturday at 2 p.m. at Harper Davis Field in Jackson, Miss.

WHY IT MATTERS: Trinity finally had a week off after playing one of the most brutal schedules in college football over their first five games. The Tigers entered the bye week on a two-game winning streak and a blowout win over rival Austin College in their last game. Millsaps has lost two of its last three games and took a road loss last week at Austin College. This is one of the tougher games remaining on the Tigers schedule in the regular season and they need to win out and receive some help to win the Southern Athletic Association title and an automatic playoff berth. Trinity must be impressive in its remaining games for a possible at-large playoff bid due to Hardin-Simmons being upset two weeks ago.

INSIDE THE STATS: Millsaps has struggled mightily on offense this season averaging only 0.280 Points Per Play (PPP) and 15.1 yards per point while the Majors defense has carried the team allowing only 0.220 PPP and 18.5 yards per point. Trinity has been good on both sides of the ball as the offense has averaged 0.409 PPP and 12.5 yards per point while the Tigers defense has only allowed 0.258 PPP and 18.6 yards per point this season.

COMPUTER PREDICTION: Millsaps 22, Trinity 21

 

GAME: Blinn College (4-3, 2-3) at No. 5 Kilgore College (6-1, 4-1)

WHEN: Saturday at 3 p.m. at R.E. St. John Memorial Stadium in Kilgore, Texas.

WHY IT MATTERS: On the surface, this looks like a bigger game for Blinn than it is for Kilgore. However, the Rangers have hopes of making the national championship game this season and must win their remaining games to have any chance of an NJCAA national championship this season. Blinn has lost its last two games including a loss last week on a last-second field goal against Cisco. The Buccaneers are in serious danger of missing the SWJCFC playoffs this year as they are one game behind with only two games remaining in the regular season. Worse news for Blinn is that Kilgore enters having won three straight games and had a bye week to rest and prepare for this game.

INSIDE THE STATS: Blinn has been very potent on offense this season averaging 501.4 total yards and 37.4 points per game. The Buccaneers defense has been porous at times this year allowing 421.6 total yards and 24.1 points per game. Kilgore has been solid on both sides of the ball as they have averaged 503 total yards of offense and 36.9 points per game while the Rangers defense has only allowed 340.7 yards and 23.6 points per game this season.

MY PICK: Kilgore by 4

 

OTHER SMALL COLLEGE GAMES:

Abilene Christian 34, Stephen F. Austin 23

McNeese 31, Houston Baptist 30

No. 25 Incarnate Word 31, Lamar 30

Southern 36, Texas Southern 24

Prairie View A&M by 30 over Virginia Lynchburg

No. 25 Angelo State 31, West Texas A&M 26

Midwestern State 33, Texas A&M-Kingsville 24

Chadron State 34, UT Permian Basin 26

No. 17 Hardin-Simmons 39, Belhaven 17

Texas Lutheran 41, Howard Payne 25

No. 1 Mary Hardin-Baylor 34, Southwestern 21

East Texas Baptist 44, McMurry 21

Louisiana College 31, Sul Ross State 27

Austin College 28, Sewanee 24

Wayland Baptist by 7 over Southwestern Assemblies of God

Texas Wesleyan by 21 over Texas College

No. 18 Cisco by 10 over Tyler

No. 11 Trinity Valley by 45 over Air Force Prep Academy

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