Best Case, Worst Case for 2024: Sam Houston Bearkats

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With spring football and the portal movement slowing down (fingers crossed) forecasting the 2024 season becomes an easier proposition. The 13 FBS programs in the Lone Star State share a common feeling heading into June: Hope. New faces and new opportunities provide a fresh slate for rosters and coaching staff. 

The 2024 season is a new day for the Great State. Texas reunites with Texas A&M in the SEC and SMU joins the P4 as ACC members. But what are the best- and worst-case scenarios for each team in the upcoming season? We’ll breakdown at each one.

Previous best/worst case scenario pieces for 2024: Texas | Texas A&M | UTSA | Texas State | TCU | Rice | Texas Tech | SMU | North Texas | Baylor | Houston


2023 results: 3-9 
2024 schedule 
Aug. 31                 at Rice
Sept. 7                  at UCF
Sept. 14               vs. Hawaii
Sept. 21               vs. New Mexico State
Sept. 28               vs. Texas State (NRG Stadium)
Oct. 3                     at UTEP
Oct. 16                 vs. Western Kentucky
Oct. 22                 at FIU
Oct. 29                 vs. La Tech 
Nov. 16                 at Kennesaw State
Nov. 23                 at Jax State
Nov. 30                 vs. Liberty 

Best case for 2024: The jump from Conference USA pretender to contender doesn’t require an NBA level vertical leap. Outside of Liberty and maybe Western Kentucky, the conference is a crapshoot. Sam Houston hopes to use that chaos as a ladder in 2024 after a disappointing foray into FBS football with a 3-9 record. But five of those games were lost by one possession and two were in overtime at home. 

The days of competing for national championships are in the rear-view mirror. That was the sacrifice of joining the FBS, but that doesn’t mean the Bearkats can’t compete. A healthier offense combined with an evolved offensive line should help open the playbook for the new quarterbacks on campus. The defense should be stout. 

The best-case scenario for Sam Houston involves a winning season and a first bowl trip as an FBS program. There is no shame in dreaming bigger and hoping for a CUSA championship game berth and a run like New Mexico State or Jax State went on in 2023. 

Worst case for 2024: The Bearkat faithful saw the worst-case scenario in 2023. Sam Houston proved capable of hanging with most of its opponents, especially in conference play, but the Bearkats couldn’t close despite holding second-half leads in a few of the eventual losses. A fan base that grew accustomed to big games and important stakes was left watching a team struggling to reach half the required wins for bowl eligibility. 

The worry for Sam Houston isn’t competing. It is winning. Can the same group of offensive linemen improve enough in one offseason to handle the FBS grind over four quarters? Can the running backs and wide receivers stay healthy enough to keep the entire playbook open? Will the defense replace a few key cogs, including Trevor Williams? If the answers to any of those questions are no, the Bearkats won’t reach six wins.  

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