We’ve reached the halfway point of the regular season for most of the college football teams in the country. The state of Texas is starting to take shape. Contenders such as TCU, Texas, and UTSA are separating from the pack after conference wins. The 12 teams combined for a 5-3 record in Week 6 with four programs – North Texas, Baylor, Rice, and SMU – on a bye. Ten of the 12 programs are .500 or better.  The 411 provides four truths, one prediction, and one question following Week 6. 

FOUR TRUTHS 

Texas can win the Big 12: Maybe this is true most years, but the Longhorns are clearly the most talented team in the Big 12 through six weeks of the season. When healthy, of course. The 49-0 beatdown of Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl might be more of an indictment of the Sooners, but it was also a showcase for the Longhorns. Quinn Ewers is a bona fide star who will enter 2023 as a Heisman frontrunner, and it isn’t absurd to believe that the Longhorns are 6-0 if Ewers doesn’t get hurt in the first half against Alabama. The Southlake Carroll product was 21 of 31 for 289 yards and four touchdowns. 

Ewers isn’t the only generational talent on Texas’ offense. Head coach Steve Sarkisian might be the best play caller and offensive schemer in college football. Watching his offenses is borderline erotic to football dorks. Running back Bijan Robinson is the best football player in the state. He ran for 130 yards and a pair of scores in the win over Oklahoma. And wide receiver Xavier Worthy is a future first round NFL Draft pick. 

Even the defense is playing at a Big 12 championship level. The 37-34 overtime loss to Texas Tech is the only time in 2022 that the Longhorns allowed over 20 points. The unit was historically bad in 2021. The group is now above average and bordering on outright good in 2022 with the help of analyst Gary Patterson and improved defensive line play. The Longhorns are getting pressure on quarterbacks and nose tackle Keondre Coburn might be the most improved player in Texas. 

Behren Morton is the future at Texas Tech: Stars matter, and Morton provided a glimpse at his four-star potential in the Texas Tech road loss to Oklahoma State in Week 6. In his first collegiate start, the Eastland product was 39 of 62 for 379 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He even showed off some dual-threat ability with 46 yards and a touchdown as a runner. Morton looked perfectly suited for Zach Kittley’s offense, and he made a few plays that reminded college football fans of Bailey Zappe. Tyler Shough is injury prone and running out of eligibility. Donovan Smith is a gamer, but he is also prone to a few mistakes in the passing game. Morton isn’t a finished product, and there’s a reason he landed third on the depth chart entering the year, but his potential and youth make him the perfect player to build the Red Raiders offense around for the next few seasons. 

Texas teams dominate C-USA early: The four in-state Conference USA squads – UTSA, North Texas, Rice, and UTEP – are a combined 6-2 after Week 6. The three teams moving on to the American Athletic Conference in 2023 – UTSA, Rice, and North Texas – sit at 5-0 with the Roadrunners and Mean Green tied for the conference lead with a 2-0 record. UTEP is the only one of the schools with conference losses, but one of those came in Week 0 to North Texas. UTSA is the reigning C-USA champion, and the Roadrunners are poised to repeat thanks to Frank Harris and a talented trio of receivers. UTSA knocked off Western Kentucky for the third time in two seasons in Week 6. North Texas and Rice were idle. The Owls could reach bowl eligibility by the end of October with games against FAU, La Tech, and Charlotte on the schedule to finish the month. 

Play Preston Stone: Incumbent starter Tanner Mordecai threw as many interceptions (5) as touchdowns during the current three-game losing streak for SMU and first-year head coach Rhett Lashlee. The Waco Midway product has taken a step backwards in his senior season, and it is possible that the current offense doesn’t suit him as well as Garrett Riley’s. The good news for the Mustangs is that a talented youngster who was recruited by Lashlee waits in the wings. Stone, a four-star prospect who spurned Power Five offers to stay in Dallas and play for SMU, avoided the transfer portal when Sonny Dykes bolted for TCU. The coaching staff swore that a quarterback competition between Mordecai and Stone took place throughout the offseason. If that is true, then it is time to see what Stone can do in meaningful moments. We’re not suggesting that Mordecai be benched as the starter. Just that Stone should receive a few drives in meaningful moments to see if he can jumpstart the offense and get the Mustangs back in the win column. 

ONE QUESTION 

Can Dykes and TCU avoid the late-season collapse? 

Hot starts are nothing new for Sonny Dykes. SMU was a combined 21-2 in September and October in his final three seasons on the Hilltop. The Mustangs started 8-0 in 2019, 6-1, in 2020, and 7-1 in 2021. Now in Fort Worth, Dykes has his Horned Frogs at 5-0 to start 2022. Business picks up for TCU over the back-half of the schedule, however, and that’s been an issue for Dykes’ teams. The Horned Frogs host Oklahoma State and Oklahoma State over the next two weeks. Trips to Texas and Baylor remain on the schedule. SMU was 4-8 after Oct. 31 in the final three years with Dyke and none of those three teams posted a winning record over the final month of the season. 

ONE PREDICTION 

At least nine in-state FBS programs reach a bowl game 

The state of Texas qualified eight of its 12 FBS programs for bowl games in 2021 with Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Houston, SMU, North Texas, UTEP, and UTSA reaching the six-win plateau. A few of those teams didn’t play in bowl games due to cancellations, but we’ll count them for these purposes. That number could grow in 2022. Only two of the state’s 12 FBS programs – SMU and UTEP – hold losing records through Week 6.  I expect SMU to reach the six wins required to reach a bowl game. I have my doubts about UTEP and Texas State. That leaves 10 other programs capable of qualifying for a bowl game. I’ll concede that one of those teams falls apart late, so give me nine in-state teams to reach a bowl game in 2022.