After losing its two biggest members, the Big 12 is in a precarious position. The remaining eight schools are left looking for safer waters. 

Texas Tech has played against primarily Texas schools since moving from the Border Conference to the Southwest Conference in 1960. However, demographic change could put the Red Raiders in a curious spot between the growth of the cities and American Southwest. 

As the Red Raiders enter college free agency, here’s where Texas Tech stands. 

The Good

Out of the three Texas schools left in the Big 12, Texas Tech has the most brand tools. The university holds more than 40,000 students – and continues to grow. The university is an R1 research institution, which should be a strong credit to the academic reputation of whichever conference Texas Tech joins. 

Just as importantly, Texas Tech has established itself as the premier college sports brand in West Texas. After a run to the national title game, the basketball facilities have been upgraded to an elite level. The football facilities have plenty to offer too. It doesn’t hurt that former letterman Patrick Mahomes is on track to field a Hall of Fame career in the NFL. 

Off the football field, Texas Tech boasts one of the top baseball teams in America. The program won four straight Big 12 titles between 2016 and 2019. The men’s track and field team captured a national championship in 2019. The men’s basketball team played for a national championship under Chris Beard, and appears right on track under new head coach Mark Adams. 

Outside of West Texas and the Panhandle – where the school has tremendous influence – Texas Tech has among the most alumni of any college in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and in Houston. The opportunity to build branding in the state of Texas would be a draw for any conference. 

The other side of this is that Texas Tech has maintained consistent funding and support despite struggling mightily on the football field for the past decade. If a new conference can unlock Texas Tech’s potential, this fanbase has much more to offer. 

The Bad

Without question, Texas Tech has the least of the remaining three schools to sell on the football field. The Red Raiders have not posted a winning record since 2015. They haven’t won a bowl game since the Holiday Bowl in 2013. They haven’t posted a winning Big 12 record since 2009.

Maybe it’s a string of bad hires. At the same time, it’s worth asking if TCU’s elevation to Power Five tipped the balance of power in West Texas. In the 16 seasons of Big 12 play before realignment, Texas Tech went 124-75 (62.3%) under Spike Dykes, Mike Leach and Tommy Tuberville. In the nine seasons since TCU joined the league, the Red Raiders are just 51-59 (46.3%). The program's last conference championship was in 1994. Mahomes was born in 1995. 

Fully opening the state to the SEC could make recruiting in Dallas and Houston even harder for the Red Raiders. Sociologically, population leaving West Texas because of urbanization also will have a significant long-term impact on the brand awareness of Texas Tech. And perhaps just as relevant, Texas Tech alone does not necessarily fit into the cultural identity of, say, the Pac-12. 

Financially, Texas Tech ranks fifth among the eight Big 12 public schools in revenue, just within a million dollars of Iowa State. If Texas Tech jumped into the Pac-12, it would be clearly bottom half of the league financially, at least among the public schools. 

Would the Pac-12 be happy to take Texas Tech without the guarantee of any more football success? 

Bottom Line

Those in the Texas Tech community are looking to the west, and for good reason. The Pac-12 is likely the safest option for Texas Tech to maintain its spot as a major college football program. It’s still a good 600 miles from the closest Pac-12 school, but those are issues that could be figured out later. 

However, an invitation from the Pac-12 is no guarantee. Texas Tech is unlikely to move the needle much on the football side. Financially, the league will have to predict if the Red Raiders can become a contributor in a conference with less roots in Texas. Institutional support and non-revenue sports would be a strong draw, but will it be enough? 

If the Pac-12 opts to pass, suddenly Texas Tech might be on the edge looking at The American and the Mountain West. If that were to happen, Texas Tech should consider sticking with the current Big 12 slate and look to expand rapidly. The Big 12 wouldn’t keep its full value television contract, but it would likely get more than the Group of Five leagues. 

The biggest piece missing from the Texas Tech puzzle is revenue sport success. Until football can be a plus commodity for another conference, Texas Tech's future is up in the air. 

At this point, the most important thing for Texas Tech to rebuild its brand is simply competition. The Red Raiders need to put themselves in a position to consistently succeed – even if it means playing conference opponents from outside the state. Kirby Hocutt is often considered an elite athletic director. This is where he needs to make his money.