With National Signing Day in the rearview mirror, we are evaluating the state of each Texas FBS program. TCU is next up as Gary Patterson heads into his 21st season leading the Horned Frogs. 

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TCU Horned Frogs

2020 Record: 6-4, 6-3 Big 12

Head Coach: Gary Patterson (178-74 in 21 seasons)

Returning Production Ranking (O/D): 13 / 66

Key Returners: DB Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (26 tackles, 13 PBUs), QB Max Duggan, DL Ochaun Mathis (46 tackles, 14 TFLs, 9 sacks)

Key Losses: DB Trevon Moehrig, LB Garret Wallow, DB Ar’Darius Washington

Key Additions: OL Obinna Eze (Memphis), QB Chandler Morris (Oklahoma), DE Kenny Turnier (UCF)

Final 2020 Ranking: 5

Way-Too-Early 2021 Ranking: 5

What went wrong: Gary Patterson’s turnaround streak fell short

Gary Patterson has posted just four losing seasons in his storied TCU career. Each of the first three represented a rebuilding moment that paid off in a big way. 

A disappointing 2004 season was followed up by an 11-1 season and No. 11 national finish. A 4-8 finish in 2013 was followed by TCU’s 12-1 Big 12 championship squad. Even the struggling 2016 squad set up an 11-3 trip to the Big 12 Championship Game. 

Before 2020, TCU was an otherworldly 44-6 in seasons following a .500 or worse record, good enough for an 88 percent win mark. For that reason, following 5-7 in 2019 with a meager 6-4 mark in 2020 isn’t especially satisfying. 

In fact, the Horned Frogs are in the midst of the worst three-year stretch since Pat Sullivan led the program in the WAC, before LaDainian Tomlinson was ever a Frog. Granted, an 18-17 three-year mark being disappointing is quite the compliment for how consistent Patterson has produced. Still, it’s a trend worth following. 

What went right: The Frogs found their offensive identity

There was an adjustment period to the 2020 season for a relatively young roster. But once the Horned Frogs found their footing, the change in demeanor was obvious. TCU quietly went on to win five of its final six games 

After the brutal start, TCU underwent a shift on offense. The Frogs ran a season-low 25 times against Oklahoma on Oct. 24. Afterwards, TCU ran at least 34 times in every game and cleared 40 in every Big 12 win. 

Even as Max Duggan struggled, completing just 52.8 percent of his passes and averaging 148.8 yards per game over the streak, the Horned Frog offense put together strong performances. The Frogs averaged 35.5 points per game over the six performances, including 38.8 points per game in Big 12 wins. Four different rushers posted 100-yard games over the streak. 

The shift also came as true freshmen Zach Evans and Kendre Miller entered the lineup and made a major impact. TCU now heads into 2021 with one of the most complete running back rooms in the state and a line that has consistently improved. 

Has Max Duggan earned the QB job? 

Few quarterbacks in the state have been thrown to the wolves quite like Max Duggan over the past several seasons. Duggan was seen as more of a developmental prospect when he came to Fort Worth, but injuries and transfers meant he was thrown in as a true freshman. Injuries and poor line play have made his development difficult. 

Duggan absolutely improved in his second season, upping his completion percentage from 53 to 61 percent and yards per attempt from 6.1 to 7.5. That said, TCU also posted the worst passing offense in Texas at just 196.3 yards per game. 

The sophomore from Council Bluffs, Iowa, doesn’t have elite weapons outside, but Quentin Johnston, Pro Wells and Taye Barber showed flashes of excellence. JD Spielman was supposed to be a surefire stud after becoming the first Nebraska receiver to post three 800-yard receiving seasons. Still, the Frogs failed to produce a 500-yard receiver. 

Now, TCU added blue-chip transfer Chandler Morris from Oklahoma to the competition, along with three true freshman signal-callers. Part of this was simply about depth – former walk-on Matthew Downing was the only other returner. At the same time, there’s no reason TCU won’t at least consider a truly open quarterback competition. 

TCU’s defensive development must pay off

Gary Patterson’s defense was insanely young and inexperienced in 2020 and managed to find its way to one of the Big 12’s best. Now, only three starters are gone. The issue? DB Ar’Darius Washington, DB Trevon Moehrig and LB Garret Wallow were perhaps the best players on the entire team. 

Even with that group gone, the Frogs still have a few stars. Ochaun Mathis and Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson will push for All-America nods. Dee Winters is the next NFL-bound linebacker. The defensive line overall should be a strength for the first time since Ben Banogu and Ross Blacklock led the way. 

Patterson has made a career of finding young guns and coaching them up to an elite level. Now, it’s time to see which lumps of coal he can squeeze into his next group of diamonds. 

Now what? 

In many ways, TCU has had 2021 circled on the calendar. Granted, the year looked slightly brighter before safeties Ar’Darius Washington and Trevon Moehrig turned into early-entree prospects to the NFL Draft, but the team is still finally starting to look like the 2017 Big 12 finalist squad again. 

The Frogs rank No. 13 nationally in returning offensive production with virtually every playmaker back. The offense is also fully in Doug Meacham’s hands. 

The offensive line will look different after losing multiple players with starting experience, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Finally, young players like Andrew Coker and Garrett Hayes will get in the rotation full-time. Memphis transfer Obinna Eze should help stabilize the loss of T.J. Storment. Defensively, plenty of talent is back at key positions. 

The only hangup? The Big 12 is heading into a bit of a culmination season of its own. Oklahoma has its best shot at a national title since Sam Bradford. Iowa State returns a whole lot. Outside of new-look Texas, every program in the Big 12 projects to be better than last season. Still, if TCU is ready to make the kind of leap we expect from them, the Frogs should clear most of the middle class. 

For two decades, we’ve been able to set our watch to Gary Patterson producing nationally-relevant squads. Is time up? The 2021 season will tell.