With National Signing Day in the rearview mirror, we are evaluating the state of each Texas FBS program. Up today is the Baylor Bears, which just completed a rocky first year of the Dave Aranda era. 

Previous Editions: Texas State

Baylor Bears

• 2020 Record: 2-7, 2-7 Big 12
• Head Coach: Dave Aranda (2-7 in one season)
• Returning Production Ranking (O/D): 90 / 14
• Key Returners: STAR Jalen Pitre, WR RJ Sneed, LB Terrel Bernard
• Key Losses: QB Charlie Brewer, RB John Lovett, DL William Bradley-King
• Key Additions: DL Siaki Ika (LSU), OL Grant Miller (Vanderbilt), QB Kyron Drones (Alvin Shadow Creek)
• Final 2020 Ranking: 11
• Way-Too-Early 2021 Ranking: 6

What went wrong: The offense collapsed

Matt Rhule’s Baylor earned a trip to the Big 12 championship despite an offense that was slightly inconsistent. But after longtime offensive coach Larry Fedora and LSU analyst Jorge Munoz took over the offense in 2020, the offense was driven straight into the ground. 

It was popular to blame the quarterback play or offensive line issues for Baylor’s trouble, but honestly, the issues were all-consuming. The scheme wasn’t cohesive and was too complex, especially for a team that didn’t have the benefit of training camp. The offensive line struggled to communicate with different blocking schemes. Quarterback Charlie Brewer never got comfortable and the offensive coaching staff never schemed to his abilities, or benched him. 

When the dust settled, the offense ranked No. 118 in yardage and No. 100 in scoring offense. By every metric, Baylor and Kansas were in a class of their own as inept Big 12 offenses. The 2019 offenses weren’t amazing by any stretch, but the offense dropped nearly two yards per play and 10 points per game. 

Baylor has recruited strong playmakers for more than a decade at this point. With talents like RB John Lovett, WR RJ Sneed and Tyquan Thornton, competing with Kansas for the worst offense in the Big 12 was a monumental embarrassment. 

What went right: Dave Aranda knows defense

When the season started, the conventional logic was that Baylor would struggle on defense after losing nine starters. While the nation’s No. 48 defense wasn’t quite as good as the 2019 squad, it played surprisingly well despite dealing with some setbacks. 

Linebacker Terrel Bernard was as good as advertised and was arguably on track for an All-America bid before suffering a season-ending injury. In his absence, STAR Jalen Pitre elevated his game to an All-America level. Fellow linebackers Dillon Doyle and Abram Smith played well. Senior Raleigh Texada – who will be back in 2021 – also quietly established himself as one of the nation’s best cover corners. 

By the end of the season, Oklahoma was as hot an offense as any in college football. Baylor held the Sooners to just 27 points, the lowest mark of the Lincoln Riley era. Statistically, it was a comparable performance against Oklahoma to the one Aranda coached the national champion LSU Tigers to in 2019. 

Baylor hired Aranda to try and maintain a tough-nosed defensive culture built under Rhule’s watch. That culture is still in place. And with only one full-time starter off to the NFL, the defense should be even better in 2021. 

Aranda wasn’t passive

Some first-year head coaches who struggle are more than willing to wait out the process. Heck, it’s how Matt Rhule turned the program around the first time. But even in a bizarre COVID season where Aranda would have had every excuse to double down, he was aggressive. 

Aranda parted ways with three respected offensive staffers – OC Larry Fedora, OL coach Joe Wickline and WR coach Jorge Munoz. He turned his eye to two of the most successful offenses in football to find their replacements. 

Outside of Alabama, you’d be hard pressed to find a better offense in America than the one Jeff Grimes coordinated at BYU last season. He brought along his elite offensive line coach Eric Mateos, who helped transform Brady Christensen into one of the nation’s best linemen. Aranda is also taking a chance at receiver coach, handing the reins to Clemson development coach and former NFL receiver Chansi Stuckey. 

His aggressiveness spread to the roster too. After losing multiple four-year starters to the transfer market, Aranda added transfers on both sides of the trenches and convinced now-sixth year CB Texada to return. Baylor didn't have a big recruiting class, but it was full of high-upside prospects who we think could outperform their rankings. 

There’s no way of knowing how it will work until we see it on the field. Regardless, Aranda ensured that complacency wouldn’t tank the program.  

The schedule gets favorable

With the way the Big 12 is set up, Baylor’s schedule flips from brutal to manageable every other year. It’s no coincidence the Bears shocked the world and reached the conference title game in 2019. Odd number years help. 

Even if Matt Rhule and his staff had remained in 2020, things would have been tougher with road trips to Morgantown, Austin, Norman, Ames and Lubbock in one offseason. In 2021, those trips flip and are replaced with games in Stillwater, Manhattan, Fort Worth and Lawrence. Nothing’s easy in the Big 12, but that slate is much easier. 

The nonconference slate features a trip to Texas State and home game against Texas Southern. Playing a rebuilding BYU squad in Waco – with former Cougars assistants Grimes and Mateos on the other sideline – will be an interesting test. 

The flipside is that the Big 12 could be exceptionally difficult in 2021. Oklahoma is poised to be a national championship contender. Iowa State brings back nearly its entire roster. TCU has been building towards a culmination for years now. Really, Texas and Oklahoma State are the only teams that expect to be worse in 2021. 

Being average in the Big 12 conference is a difficult job because there’s only one team on the schedule expected to be below average. Baylor will have to take full advantage of its chances. 

Now what? 

Just 14 months ago, Baylor was playing in the Big 12 championship game. Realistically, Baylor isn’t a program that expects to be on that stage every single year – but making a bowl game and competing for a spot until the end is expectations. 

That said, transitioning into being a head coach for the first time is not easy. With the COVID situation, Aranda wasn’t exactly dealt an easy hand. There’s plenty of reason to believe that this team could improve quickly. 

Most importantly? The defense should be insane in year two under Aranda. Bernard, Pitre and Texada make up perhaps the best defensive threesome in the Big 12. Dillon Doyle and a group of young safeties showed real promise. There's no reason the Bears can't compete with the Big 12's top defenses in 2021. 

The biggest place for growth is on the defensive line. William Bradley-King is off to the NFL, but the Bears added a commitment from LSU transfer Siaki Ika. The vast majority of production is back with a year of experience. 

On offense, Baylor returns several offensive linemen with experience and adds Vanderbilt transfer Grant Miller on the interior. However, the most interesting question comes at quarterback. Brewer is off to Utah, so Jacob Zeno, Blake Shapen, Kyron Drones and Gerry Bohanon will compete for the starting job. With a new offensive coordinator calling the shots, each has a fully clean slate, which should be good news for each contender in his own way. 

If Baylor’s offense was just average last season, the defense would have easily carried the Bears to a bowl game. In a tougher Big 12, the offense has to be better than that. The pieces are there for this offense to be not just decent, but good. Then again, we’ve been waiting for the offense to reach 2018 Texas Bowl level for more than two years. 

Aranda deserved a mulligan in 2020. The 2021 season has to be better. And with the additions he made, we believe it will be.