GAME: No. 24 Nicholls (4-4, 3-2) at Incarnate Word (5-2, 4-2)

WHEN: Saturday at 4 p.m. at Gayle & Tom Benson Stadium in San Antonio. The game will be broadcast on ESPN3.

WHY IT MATTERS: The playoffs begin this week for both of these teams as another loss in the regular season would effectively end all hopes of earning an at-large playoff bid. Nicholls hits the road this week reeling after being shut out by Sam Houston State two weeks ago and falling in overtime to Abilene Christian to end a 13-game regular-season home winning streak. UIW is also reeling after unexpectedly losing an overtime home game to Northwestern State who entered the game without a win on the season. UIW has won its last three games against Nicholls and the Cardinals defense will be a huge key this week as they have forced a turnover in 20 consecutive games.

INSIDE THE STATS: Both teams enter being relatively even according to advanced stats as UIW has averaged 0.414 Points Per Play (PPP) and 13.7 yards per point. The Cardinals have allowed 0.449 PPP and 14.2 yards per point. Nicholls enters averaging 0.416 PPP and 14.2 yards per point while allowing 0.449 PPP and 13.8 yards per point on defense.

COMPUTER PREDICTION: Incarnate Word 30, Nicholls 29

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GAME: No. 24 Texas A&M-Commerce (5-2, 4-1) at West Texas A&M (6-2, 3-2)

WHEN: Saturday at 4:05 p.m. at J Ferg Field at Buffalo Stadium in Canyon, Texas. The game will be broadcast on ESPN3.

WHY IT MATTERS: This is another de facto playoff game between conference rivals. Both teams received mention when the initial regional rankings were released this week with the Lions at No. 6 and the Buffs at No. 10 with the top seven teams in the region making the playoffs. With both teams having two losses, any loss in their remaining regular-season games would most likely end any hopes of earning a playoff spot. Both teams enter this game coming off of big wins after disappointing losses two weeks ago. This will also be an emotional game for the Lions as they are dealing with the tragedy that struck their community following their big homecoming win last week.

INSIDE THE STATS: TAMUC looks to have an edge on offense in the advanced stats on both sides of the ball as they have averaged 0.607 Points Per Play (PPP) and 10.8 yards per point on offense. The Lions have allowed 0.348 PPP and 14.2 yards per point. WT enters with an offense averaging .470 PPP and 10.4 yards per point while the Buffs have allowed 0.318 PPP and 16.1 yards per point.

COMPUTER PREDICTION: Texas A&M-Commerce 30, West Texas A&M 28

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GAME: East Texas Baptist (4-3, 4-2) at Southwestern (4-3, 3-3)

WHEN: Saturday at 1 p.m. at Georgetown ISD Birkelbach Field in Georgetown, Texas.

WHY IT MATTERS: Every year this is a great game between two good teams and this year is no exception. The season has not gone as planned for either team, but the stakes remain high for each team in this conference game. Both teams have relied on their running games this season which is not unusual for the triple-option attack of Southwestern, but the Tigers have traditionally been a passing team. Both teams have suffered injuries this year, but the Pirates have had an atypical amount of injuries. Southwestern has lost as many as 11 starters to injuries this season and has had to cancel Junior Varsity games to be able to fill holes on the varsity roster. Both teams need a win this week to gain momentum moving forward.

INSIDE THE STATS: The only advantage according to the advanced stats is for the Southwestern defense as the Pirates have only allowed 0.305 Points Per Play (PPP) this season and 16.5 yards per point. The SU offense has averaged 0.363 PPP and 14.2 yards per point. The ETBU offense has averaged 0.402 PPP and 13.8 yards per point while allowing 0.413 PPP and 13 yards per point this season.

COMPUTER PREDICTION: Southwestern 30, East Texas Baptist 26

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GAME: Navarro College (4-5, 3-4) at No. 8 Trinity Valley Community College (7-2, 5-2) in the SWJCFC semifinals

WHEN: Saturday at 3 p.m. at Bruce Field in Athens, Texas.

WHY IT MATTERS: This is a rematch of last Saturday’s classic between these teams. Despite the 45-44 loss at home, Navarro was still able to grab the No. 3 seed and a trip to play the Cardinals again this Saturday. The Bulldogs need a win to possibly guarantee a bowl game bid while TVCC needs to win the next two weeks and hope for some other teams to lose to have a shot at playing in the NJCAA national title game. The winner will meet either New Mexico Military Institute or No. 3 Kilgore in the SWJCFC finals. TVCC has had one of the top defenses in the country this season but Navarro was able to move the ball behind outstanding quarterback, and recent Troy commit, Parker McNeil.

INSIDE THE STATS: McNeil has led a potent Navarro passing attack that has averaged 375.9 yards per game this season. The Bulldogs defense has struggled against the run as they have allowed 163.4 yards rushing per game this year. The TVCC offense has been outstanding running the ball averaging 186 yards rushing per game while the Cardinals defense has only allowed 275.2 total yards and 17.1 points per game.

MY PICK: Trinity Valley by 3

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OTHER SMALL COLLEGE GAMES:

No. 8 Central Arkansas 28, Lamar 27

Southeastern La. 37, Stephen F. Austin 24

Grambling State 36, Texas Southern 22

No. 4 Tarleton 37, Midwestern State 24

No. 21 Angelo State 37, Adams State 24

Eastern New Mexico 31, UT Permian Basin 29

Texas A&M-Kingsville 33, Western New Mexico 32

No. 1 Mary Hardin-Baylor 42, Louisiana College 15

Texas Lutheran 35, Belhaven 18

No. 16 Hardin-Simmons 44, McMurry 14

Howard Payne 32, Sul Ross State 28

Hendrix 26, Trinity 25

Birmingham Southern 32, Austin College 22

No. 22 Langston by 35 over Southwestern Assemblies of God

Bethel College by 30 over Texas College

Arizona Christian by 14 over Texas Wesleyan

Oklahoma Panhandle State by 7 over Wayland Baptist

No. 3 Kilgore by 21 over New Mexico Military Institute

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