REGIONAL OUTLOOK

The power nexus in Region II clearly lies in District 11-6A where both defending state champions reside (Duncanville and DeSoto). So the big question heading into 2023 is will anyone have the firepower to push those two programs off the throne? There is a chance (a slight one) that DeSoto could wind up back in Division I if things break a certain way.

Wylie East moved up to 6A last year and immediately found its new district pretty accommodating as the Raiders went 9-1 and rolled to a district title. East has enough on defense to get the job done. The battle for second will be interesting between a veteran Naaman Forest squad, an always scrappy and well-coached Wylie bunch, who is used to over-achieving, and Sachse. Rowlett and Lakeview Centennial will be in the mix as well as the middle of this district has a lot of balance.

District 10-6A is really intriguing heading into the season as Mesquite Horn appears ready to wrestle the district title away from Rockwall in Year 2 under HC Courtney Allen. The Jags have a lot of experience back and some big-time young talent in the pipeline. Can they find a QB thought? Rockwall is a good bet for second; the ‘Jackets are consistent and they always do a great job developing talent. The real intrigue is in spots three through five where Royse City, Rockwall-Heath and a young and talented Mesquite squad all have a legitimate case to be in contention. Rockwall-Heath had a rocky offseason and it may take a year for new head coach Rodney Webb to fully put his stamp on that program.

Duncanville (Division I) and DeSoto (Division II) are defending state champions who are the headliners in 11-6A and Region II overall. These two are absolutely loaded once again and will be the favorites to repeat as regional champions and potentially state champions. The only real question here is whether DeSoto returns to Division II. Waxahachie, who had a breakout season going 10-3 last year, lost a lot due to graduation, while Mansfield improved quite a bit a year ago. If both make the playoffs again, DeSoto goes Division II, but if Cedar Hill, Mansfield Lake Ridge or Mansfield Legacy can improve enough to push a young Waxahachie squad out of the playoffs, DeSoto would slide to Division I. It’s unlikely, but not so far-fetched that we shouldn’t mention it!

Killeen Harker Heights made a big push last year, winning 12-6A and getting all the way to the regional finals in Division II before falling to eventual champion DeSoto. The Knights lost their head coach and a strong senior class, but there’s enough in the pipeline to have them in the mix. But my surprise pick to win the district is fast rising Pflugerville Weiss, who could really be primed for a breakout season. Temple is talented, but very young and they have questions at the QB spot. Hutto, Bryan and Waco Midway will be locked in a tight-race for that fourth and final playoff spot.

The Woodlands enters 2023 as the heavy favorite in 13-6A. The Highlanders have all the makings of a real force on the northern end of Houston with FBS talent at the skill positions. The question for TWHS will be if its young defense can mature and get the job done? Oak Ridge is ultra-talented on the defensive side of the ball and has the district’s most productive running back, which gives them the nod over Willis for the second spot. The battle for the final playoff spot is intriguing; Conroe gets the edge over last year’s district champion New Caney, which lost its coach and a stout senior class. The Woodlands College Park could be a real sleeper under a new coach.

Aside from North Shore in the state title game, Spring Westfield was the only team to really make Duncanville sweat in its title run a year ago. The Mustangs bring back one of the top defensive units in Houston and they’ve got an elite running back. They do have a huge question mark at the QB spot and that could be what holds them back in 2023. Dekaney brings back a solid core from a third-round playoff team a year ago and they are the smart choice for the second spot. It’ll be a four way battle for that final playoff spot with three Aldine schools (Ike, Nimitz and Davis) contending with Spring who should be much improved in 2023.

No power program in the Houston area gets overlooked more than Klein Collins in my opinion, but this year the Tigers won’t be off the radar by any means as they welcome back seven starters on both sides of the ball from a 10-2 squad. That installs the Tigers as the 15-6A favorite in front of Klein Cain, which is also fresh off a 10-win season, and Tomball, which has won six playoff games the past two seasons. Tomball Memorial and Klein will be in a tight battle for the last playoff spot, but give that edge to Tomball Memorial and its 18 returning starters.

As is often the case, expect the unexpected in Cy-Fair ISD as 16-6A will once again be competitive top to bottom. Whoever emerges from this district will be playoff tested. Cy Ranch and Bridgeland have been the two teams to beat in this district and both will contend, but Cy Falls gets the early edge with eight back on offense and a ton of team speed. Note to self: get the tiebreakers ready because this thing could be a three or four-way tie! Cy Woods is a sleeper to make some noise, especially if its young defense can come around. But the Wildcats will need to hold off fast-rising Cy Springs, which is improving by leaps and bounds.

DISTRICT PREDICTIONS

District 9-6A

1. Wylie East
2. Garland Naaman Forest
3. Wylie
4. Sachse
5. Garland Lakeview Centennial
6. Rowlett
7. Garland
8. North Garland
9. South Garland

District 10-6A

1. Mesquite Horn
2. Rockwall
3. Royse City
4. Mesquite
5. Rockwall-Heath
6. North Forney
7. Tyler Legacy

District 11-6A

1. Duncanville
2. DeSoto
3. Mansfield
4. Waxahachie
5. Cedar Hill
6. Mansfield Legacy
7. Mansfield Lake Ridge
8. Dallas Skyline

District 12-6A

1. Pflugerville Weiss
2. Killeen Harker Heights
3. Temple
4. Hutto
5. Waco Midway
6. Bryan
7. Copperas Cove

District 13-6A

1. The Woodlands
2. Conroe Oak Ridge
3. Willis
4. Conroe
5. The Woodlands College Park
6. New Caney
7. Conroe Grand Oaks
8. Cleveland
9. Conroe Caney Creek

District 14-6A

1. Spring Westfield
2. Spring Dekaney
3. Aldine Nimitz
4. Aldine Eisenhower
5. Spring
6. Aldine Davis
7. Aldine MacArthur
8. Aldine

District 15-6A

1. Klein Collins
2. Tomball
3. Klein Cain
4. Tomball Memorial
5. Klein
6. Klein Oak
7. Klein Forest
8. Waller

District 16-6A

1. Cypress Falls
2. Cypress Ranch
3. Cypress Woods
4. Bridgeland
5. Cypress Springs
6. Houston Langham Creek
7. Cypress Park
8. Cypress Lakes

PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS

Division I

W9 Wylie vs R10 Rockwall

W11 Duncanville vs R12 Hutto

W13 The Woodlands vs R14 Aldine Nimitz

W15 Klein Collins vs R16 Bridgeland

W10 Mesquite Horn vs R9 Sachse

W12 Temple vs R11 Waxahachie

W14 Spring Westfield vs R13 Conroe

W16 Cypress Ranch vs R15 Klein Cain

Division II

W9 Wylie East vs R10 Mesquite

W11 DeSoto vs R12 Killeen Harker Heights

W13 Conroe Oak Ridge vs R14 Aldine Eisenhower

W15 Tomball vs R16 Cypress Woods

W10 Royse City vs R9 Garland Naaman Forest

W12 Pflugerville Weiss vs R11 Mansfield

W14 Spring Dekaney vs R13 Willis

W16 Cypress Falls vs R15 Tomball Memorial

REGIONAL CHAMPIONS

Division I

Duncanville over Mesquite Horn

Division II

DeSoto over Pflugerville Weiss