Upset Watch: Which teams could spring the surprise in the area round?

Photo by Tom Sooter

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Midland Greenwood (6-3) at Aubrey (10-1)

Aubrey is an 11-point favorite

Man, the computer sure is disrespecting a reigning state semifinalist with this projection, huh?

No disrespect to Aubrey, but I tend to like Midland Greenwood’s strength of schedule here. The Chaparrals have beaten nearly everyone on their schedule, which is all you can ask for, but aside from Caddo Mills, have they really been tested yet this season? Most of their wins come against teams with losing records.

Meanwhile, the Rangers have a quality win over Andrews (8-2) and an overtime loss to district opponent Sweetwater (8-1). Don’t discount the value of tough regular season scheduling when it come to the playoffs.

This isn’t even to mention the fact that Greenwood’s Trey Cross, a DCTF Preseason All-State 4A running back, might be the best player on the field after rushing for 1,644 yards and 19 touchdowns in nine games. The small-statured back has been finding holes behind the Rangers’ stellar offensive line all season and I don’t see a reason to expect him to be shut down.

Malakoff vs Pottsboro

Malakoff is a 17-point favorite

Speaking of disrespectful, Pottsboro a three-score underdog?! This one’s an easy potential upset pick.

The Cardinals lost one district shootout against Mineola and their second loss this season was to a 4A DII Melissa team that’s proven to be pretty dang good, only losing to top-ranked Argyle this year. O, and their best win? A double-digit win over Gunter! That’s significant. Pottsboro’s no three-score underdog.

The projection might say more about Malakoff and how impressive the Tigers have looked shutting out every one of their district opponents and hammering Maypearl last week, 83-7.

But Pottsboro will easily be one of the best teams Malakoff’s faced this year. Seniors Braden Plyler and Titus Lyons have been the go-to connection all year on offense with Colton Creswell providing the same stability on defense with over 100 tackles.

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