Baylor football has been inconsistent on defense for years. Even after hiring defensive-minded coach Matt Rhule in December 2016, the Bears are still struggling.

The Bears rank last in the Big 12 in scoring defense at 32.3 points per game. They’re not much better at total defense, ranking No. 90 nationally with 411.0 yards per game allowed. Keep in mind, the Bears have played UTSA, Kansas and an FCS opponent to this point.

Ultimately, almost all the Bears’ defensive issues come down to one issue: explosive touchdown plays.

Over the last two weeks, that weakness has become even more pronounced. The Bears gave up 10 touchdowns of at least 30 yards over the past two weeks against Oklahoma and Kansas State. But even against Duke and Abilene Christian, the Bears gave up multiple explosive touchdowns.

“We have to play better,” Baylor coach Matt Rhule said. “It’s never just one thing, and that’s coaching talk. One or two of them, we’re slanting the whole line and a couple of guys go the wrong way, it opens up a huge gap and it’s a touchdown. I think we have to play a little bit better on our second and third levels.”

Those big plays were especially concerning against Kansas State. The Wildcats are one of the least explosive teams in the nation. K-State had just eight plays of more than 30 yards in its first three games. The Wildcats had four against Baylor alone, all for touchdowns.

We went through every breakaway touchdown of the 2018 season, and some of the numbers are even worse than expected.

More than a third of the total yards Baylor has given up this season have been on touchdown plays – 833 yards out of 2,466 total. That means that out of 370 total snaps on defense, a third of the defense’s yardage was allowed on just 24 plays.

It gets worse. There is only one team in all of college football that has given up more plays of 40 or more yards than Baylor’s 14, and that’s Georgia State. Baylor opponents are averaging 32.3 yards per passing touchdown. Somehow, the rushing numbers are even worse: 38.1 yards per rushing score, to be precise.

"We just have to play a little bit more determined on defense," Rhule said. "There’sa lot of guys trying to figure things out and wandering here or there. If you’re not locked on every single play in this league, they’ll pick you apart."

Compare that to Baylor’s opponent on Saturday: the University of Texas. Touchdowns are responsible for just 17.5 percent of the Longhorns’ total defense. Nine of their 18 touchdowns allowed came from within the 10-yard line. Just five of Baylor’s 24 touchdowns allowed came within that margin.

Texas opponents have to work hard for every point; Baylor's opponents are getting to the end zone with ease. It shows in the final box score. 

What’s going wrong?

Baylor’s downfield safety tackling is consistently blamed for the lapses. That’s been the case since Phil Bennett was still the defensive coordinator. Things are a little more complicated than that. 

To evaluate, we went in and watched every touchdown of more than 30 yards Baylor has given up this season – all 14 of them. On each play, we awarded an “error” based on who appeared to make the primary mistake. We granted errors to the defensive line, linebackers, cornerbacks, safeties and the defensive back unit as a whole.

Keep in mind, assignments aren’t always obvious. Bad play calls also can’t readily be factored in. Plus, every defensive play call relies on everyone doing their job. This should be treated more like an exercise than hard and fast data. But still, it paints an interesting picture.

Rhule is right that the second and third levels need to play better. But while the safeties get the brunt of the blame, the linebackers are at least just as guilty. Considering that the Bears only have one true consistent starter in the linebacking corps, that's not a huge surprise. 

“We just have to play better; as dumb as that may sound, as simple as that may sound, guys have to get off blocks and make some plays,” Rhule said. “We’re not really doing things at the highest level right now. We blitzed the run, we man-blitzed the run, we did a bunch of different things. But it’s not any one guy, it’s not any one thing. I think it can be corrected, and it needs to be corrected moving forward.”

All of these factors reared their ugly head during one particular play against Kansas State. With 5:54 left in the second quarter, Kansas State running back Alex Barnes broke away for a 48-yard touchdown run, his third of the day. There were huge mistakes at both the second and third level that made it happen.

Baylor set up with three down linemen, a stand up edge rusher and another two linebackers playing in the box. The Wildcats lined up with three receivers, a running back and an H-back. Baylor had two safeties playing zone coverage, but still close enough to help in run support.  

Kansas State rushed away from the edge rusher, but all three linebackers crashed into the box to respond. Only two linemen stepped out to deal with the three linebackers. If the defensive play was executed correctly, middle linebacker Terrell Bernard should fill the inside gap and pick up a tackle.

That's not what happened. Somehow, Bernard failed to slip the block and engaged with the same lineman as strongside linebacker Jalen Pitre.

It resulted in both players getting taken out of the play by one blocker. That's a huge blunder. The mistake left a massive hole for Barnes – all 6-foot-1 and 225 pounds of him – to break through the line untouched. 

Later on, safety Chris Miller leaves his zone to try and recover against the rumbling Barnes. Barnes isn't an especially quick running back, but Miller takes a bad angle in recovery and blows a late chance to end the play. 

This was just one play. Luckily for Baylor, it came in a game that the Bears managed to win. But still, these mistakes will continue to bite them against the better offensive teams in the Big 12. Other than Oklahoma, the Bears have yet to face a truly special offensive team. 

Silver lining

In some ways, struggling to contain explosive plays isn’t the worst flaw a defense can have. Getting consistently gashed for medium gains can be a sign of talent deficits. Giving up big plays are more about positioning, missed tackles and missed assignments.

Rhule has noted that it takes about a year or two to learn defensive coordinator Phil Snow’s defense. Considering how many young players Baylor is playing, a few mistakes here and there isn't particularly surprising.

When Baylor can contain the big play, the defense is surprisingly stingy. Other than the 24 touchdown plays, Baylor is allowing just 4.72 yards per play. Only 19 programs in the sport hold opponents to fewer than that. Additionally, the Bears’ red zone defense is very solid. Baylor holds opponents to touchdowns on just 53.9 percent of possessions in the red zone. That’s better than Georgia, Texas and Alabama, though keep in mind the smaller sample size.

Obviously, that’s not how defense works in practice. Any defense looks passable to excellent if you remove their big plays. The ability to keep big plays under control is what makes TCU, Georgia and Washington elite defenses. TCU, for example, has allowed just eight plays of 30 or more yards.

The good news? This isn’t unusual for a Snow defense.

Temple ranked No. 104 in plays of more than 30 yards allowed in Snow’s first year at Temple. Just a year later, Temple was all the way up to No. 8. That coincided with a jump from No. 110 to No. 24 in total defense. The same thing happened at Eastern Michigan, when the Eagles jumped from No. 104 to No. 39 in plays of more than 30 yards allowed, and from No. 113 to No. 34 in total defense.

Baylor hasn’t made that second-year jump as yet, but the Bears are also playing in a tougher offensive conference with a younger roster. That can change in a hurry.

And granted, Baylor is still winning despite the struggles. The game against Oklahoma was a loss, but the Bears won against Kansas State. Big plays doomed Baylor against Duke, but it didn’t cost them against Kansas, Abilene Christian or UTSA. Baylor is 4-2, and just two wins away from bowl eligibility.

The defense isn’t as far away as it seems. Now, it's on these young players to consistently make the right play.