It's the third round of the 2023 Texas high school football playoffs, with 52 win-or-go home games scattered across the Lone Star State. Who's going to win?
In conjunction with our partner Jerry Forrest at PigskinPrep.com, we're proud to bring you computer projections and win probabilities of every Texas high school football game! You can also find these projections on the dedicated team pages.
Note: Games are categorized alphabetically by bracket and region.
| Bracket | Region | Matchup | Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Probability |
| 6A DI | Region I | North Crowley (13-0) vs. Allen (9-4) | North Crowley | 15 | 75.0% |
| 6A DI | Region II | Duncanville (11-1) vs. Spring Westfield (11-2) | Duncanville | 14 | 80.2% |
| 6A DI | Region III | Galena Park North Shore (13-0) vs. Humble Atascocita (11-2) | Galena Park North Shore | 8 | 68.1% |
| 6A DI | Region IV | Austin Westlake (13-0) vs. Lake Travis (11-2) | Austin Westlake | 7 | 69.6% |
| 6A DII | Region I | Southlake Carroll (12-1) vs. Byron Nelson (13-0) | Southlake Carroll | 8 | 68.1% |
| 6A DII | Region II | DeSoto (12-0) vs. Cedar Hill (8-5) | DeSoto | 24 | 92.6% |
| 6A DII | Region III | Humble Summer Creek (12-1) vs. Fort Bend Hightower (12-1) | Humble Summer Creek | 11 | 73.2% |
| 6A DII | Region IV | Schertz Cibolo Steele (12-1) vs. Dripping Springs (11-2) | Schertz Cibolo Steele | 3 | 61.9% |
| 5A DI | Region I | Aledo (13-0) vs. Abilene (11-2) | Aledo | 12 | 78.8% |
| 5A DI | Region II | Forney (12-1) vs. Lancaster (8-5) | Forney | 4 | 51.7% |
| 5A DI | Region III | Smithson Valley (12-1) vs. A&M Consolidated (10-3) | Smithson Valley | 2 | 53.0% |
| 5A DI | Region IV | Brownsville Veterans Memorial (11-2) vs. Corpus Christi Miller (13-0) | Brownsville Veterans Memorial | 1 | 56.2% |
| 5A DII | Region I | Frisco Emerson (11-2) vs. Colleyville Heritage (12-1) | Frisco Emerson | 1 | 56.2% |
| 5A DII | Region II | Lucas Lovejoy (12-1) vs. Dallas South Oak Cliff (11-2) | Lucas Lovejoy | 8 | 68.1% |
| 5A DII | Region III | Port Neches-Groves (12-1) vs. Huntsville (8-5) | Port Neches-Groves | 7 | 69.6% |
| 5A DII | Region IV | San Antonio Pieper (12-1) vs. Liberty Hill (9-4) | San Antonio Pieper | 4 | 51.7% |
| 4A DI | Region I | Decatur (9-4) vs. Brownwood (12-1) | Decatur | 3 | 61.9% |
| 4A DI | Region II | Stephenville (11-2) vs. Anna (12-1) | Stephenville | 4 | 51.7% |
| 4A DI | Region III | Kilgore (12-1) vs. Tyler Chapel Hill (11-2) | Kilgore | 5 | 63.5% |
| 4A DI | Region IV | San Antonio Davenport (10-3) vs. Port Lavaca Calhoun (9-4) | San Antonio Davenport | 2 | 53.0% |
| 4A DII | Region I | Canyon West Plains (12-1) vs. Glen Rose (9-4) | Canyon West Plains | 8 | 68.1% |
| 4A DII | Region II | Carthage (13-0) vs. Gilmer (10-3) | Carthage | 14 | 80.2% |
| 4A DII | Region III | Bellville (13-0) vs. Jasper (9-4) | Bellville | 20 | 86.8% |
| 4A DII | Region IV | Wimberley (13-0) vs. Sinton (10-2) | Wimberley | 16 | 83.4% |
| 3A DI | Region I | Brock (10-3) vs. Paradise (12-1) | Brock | 11 | 73.2% |
| 3A DI | Region II | Malakoff (13-0) vs. Winnsboro (12-0) | Malakoff | 5 | 63.5% |
| 3A DI | Region III | Lorena (11-2) vs. Franklin (12-1) | Lorena | 2 | 53.0% |
| 3A DI | Region IV | Blanco (11-2) vs. Edna (10-2) | Blanco | Too close to call | 50.1% |
| 3A DII | Region I | Canadian (13-0) vs. Wall (11-2) | Canadian | 19 | 87.3% |
| 3A DII | Region II | Gunter (13-0) vs. Jacksboro (13-0) | Gunter | 30 | 98.8% |
| 3A DII | Region III | Newton (11-0) vs. Daingerfield (10-3) | Newton | 7 | 69.6% |
| 3A DII | Region IV | Tidehaven (12-0) vs. Poth (12-1) | Tidehaven | 11 | 73.2% |
| 2A DI | Region I | Hawley (11-2) vs. Stratford (13-0) | Hawley | 1 | 56.2% |
| 2A DI | Region II | Tolar (12-1) vs. Marlin (11-2) | Tolar | 22 | 86.2% |
| 2A DI | Region III | Timpson (13-0) vs. Garrison (12-1) | Timpson | 11 | 73.2% |
| 2A DI | Region IV | Refugio (12-1) vs. Ganado (11-2) | Refugio | 13 | 74.4% |
| 2A DII | Region I | Sunray (11-2) vs. Clarendon (10-3) | Sunray | 16 | 83.4% |
| 2A DII | Region II | Albany (13-0) vs. Collinsville (12-1) | Albany | 6 | 66.1% |
| 2A DII | Region III | Mart (13-0) vs. Lovelady (13-0) | Mart | 11 | 73.2% |
| 2A DII | Region IV | Chilton (12-1) vs. Falls City (10-3) | Chilton | 10 | 72.0% |
| 1A DI | Semifinal | Gordon (13-0) vs. Jonesboro (12-1) | Gordon | 7 | 69.6% |
| 1A DI | Semifinal | Westbrook (12-1) vs. Happy (12-1) | Westbrook | 18 | 79.7% |
| 1A DII | Semifinal | Benjamin (13-0) vs. Lamesa Klondike (11-1) | Benjamin | 3 | 61.9% |
| 1A DII | Semifinal | Oglesby (12-0) vs. Richland Springs (13-0) | Oglesby | 5 | 63.5% |
| TAPPS DI | Final | Dallas Parish Episcopal (9-3) vs. Houston St. Thomas (12-0) | Dallas Parish Episcopal | 5 | 63.5% |
| TAPPS DII | Final | Argyle Liberty Christian (13-0) vs. Austin Regents School (12-1) | Argyle Liberty Christian | 21 | 93.0% |
| TAPPS DIII | Final | Dallas Christian School (12-1) vs. San Antonio Holy Cross (10-2) | Dallas Christian School | 21 | 93.0% |
| TAPPS DIV | Final | Dallas First Baptist Academy (12-0) vs. Lubbock Christian (11-2) | Dallas First Baptist Academy | 5 | 63.5% |
| TAPPS 6M DI | Final | Houston Emery-Weiner School (10-1) vs. Austin Veritas Academy (6-4) | Houston Emery-Weiner School | 22 | 86.2% |
| TAPPS 6M DII | Final | Conroe Covenant (12-1) vs. Abilene Christian (11-2) | Conroe Covenant | 10 | 72.0% |
| TAPPS 6M DIII | Final | Prestonwood North (10-1) vs. Baytown Christian (8-4) | Prestonwood North | 15 | 75.0% |
| TCSAAL | Final | Houston KIPP Sunnyside (8-3) vs. Founders Classical Academy (8-4) | Houston KIPP Sunnyside | 23 | 95.0% |
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