It's the third round of the 2023 Texas high school football playoffs, with 105 win-or-go home games scattered across the Lone Star State. Who's going to win?
In conjunction with our partner Jerry Forrest at PigskinPrep.com, we're proud to bring you computer projections and win probabilities of every Texas high school football game! You can also find these projections on the dedicated team pages.
Note: Games are categorized alphabetically by bracket and region.
| Bracket | Region | Matchup | Proj. Winner | Proj. Margin | Win Probability |
| 6A DI | Region I | North Crowley (12-0) vs. Prosper (11-1) | North Crowley | 11 | 73.2% |
| 6A DI | Region I | Allen (8-4) vs. Midland Legacy (10-2) | Allen | 4 | 51.7% |
| 6A DI | Region II | Duncanville (10-1) vs. The Woodlands (9-3) | Duncanville | 15 | 75.0% |
| 6A DI | Region II | Spring Westfield (10-2) vs. Rockwall (11-1) | Spring Westfield | 6 | 66.1% |
| 6A DI | Region III | Humble Atascocita (10-2) vs. Houston Lamar (12-0) | Humble Atascocita | Too close to call | 50.1% |
| 6A DI | Region III | Galena Park North Shore (12-0) vs. Cypress-Fairbanks (11-1) | Galena Park North Shore | 25 | 98.2% |
| 6A DI | Region IV | Lake Travis (10-2) vs. San Antonio Brennan (10-2) | Lake Travis | 10 | 72.0% |
| 6A DI | Region IV | Austin Westlake (12-0) vs. Laredo United (10-2) | Austin Westlake | 30 | 98.8% |
| 6A DII | Region I | Byron Nelson (12-0) vs. Coppell (12-0) | Byron Nelson | 5 | 63.5% |
| 6A DII | Region I | Southlake Carroll (11-1) vs. Highland Park (11-1) | Southlake Carroll | 23 | 95.0% |
| 6A DII | Region II | DeSoto (11-0) vs. Willis (12-0) | DeSoto | 13 | 74.4% |
| 6A DII | Region II | Cedar Hill (7-5) vs. Tomball (8-4) | Cedar Hill | 5 | 63.5% |
| 6A DII | Region III | Fort Bend Hightower (11-1) vs. Sheldon C.E. King (9-3) | Fort Bend Hightower | Too close to call | 50.1% |
| 6A DII | Region III | Humble Summer Creek (11-1) vs. Houston Stratford (9-3) | Humble Summer Creek | 30 | 98.8% |
| 6A DII | Region IV | Schertz Cibolo Steele (11-1) vs. San Antonio Harlan (12-0) | Schertz Cibolo Steele | 12 | 78.8% |
| 6A DII | Region IV | Dripping Springs (10-2) vs. San Antonio John Jay (10-2) | Dripping Springs | 18 | 79.7% |
| 5A DI | Region I | Aledo (12-0) vs. Red Oak (12-0) | Aledo | 21 | 93.0% |
| 5A DI | Region I | Abilene (10-2) vs. Justin Northwest (10-2) | Abilene | 8 | 68.1% |
| 5A DI | Region II | Longview (11-1) vs. Lancaster (7-5) | Longview | 19 | 87.3% |
| 5A DI | Region II | Forney (11-1) vs. Fort Worth Richland (12-0) | Forney | 10 | 72.0% |
| 5A DI | Region III | Smithson Valley (11-1) vs. College Station (11-1) | Smithson Valley | 3 | 61.9% |
| 5A DI | Region III | A&M Consolidated (9-3) vs. Cedar Park (9-3) | A&M Consolidated | 15 | 75.0% |
| 5A DI | Region IV | PSJA North (12-0) vs. Brownsville Veterans Memorial (10-2) | PSJA North | 10 | 72.0% |
| 5A DI | Region IV | Corpus Christi Miller (12-0) vs. Victoria West (6-6) | Corpus Christi Miller | 16 | 83.4% |
| 5A DII | Region I | Argyle (9-2) vs. Colleyville Heritage (11-1) | Argyle | 8 | 68.1% |
| 5A DII | Region I | Frisco Emerson (10-2) vs. Wichita Falls Rider (10-2) | Frisco Emerson | 8 | 68.1% |
| 5A DII | Region II | Dallas South Oak Cliff (10-2) vs. Midlothian Heritage (12-0) | Dallas South Oak Cliff | 10 | 72.0% |
| 5A DII | Region II | Lucas Lovejoy (11-1) vs. Texarkana Texas (11-1) | Lucas Lovejoy | 23 | 95.0% |
| 5A DII | Region III | Montgomery Lake Creek (12-0) vs. Port Neches-Groves (11-1) | Montgomery Lake Creek | 5 | 63.5% |
| 5A DII | Region III | Richmond Randle (11-1) vs. Huntsville (7-5) | Richmond Randle | 4 | 51.7% |
| 5A DII | Region IV | San Antonio Alamo Heights (12-0) vs. San Antonio Pieper (11-1) | San Antonio Alamo Heights | 13 | 74.4% |
| 5A DII | Region IV | CC Flour Bluff (9-2) vs. Liberty Hill (8-4) | CC Flour Bluff | 6 | 66.1% |
| 4A DI | Region I | Springtown (9-3) vs. Brownwood (11-1) | Springtown | 2 | 53.0% |
| 4A DI | Region I | Decatur (8-4) vs. Lubbock Estacado (10-2) | Decatur | 10 | 72.0% |
| 4A DI | Region II | Celina (11-1) vs. Stephenville (10-2) | Celina | 8 | 68.1% |
| 4A DI | Region II | Frisco Panther Creek (11-1) vs. Anna (11-1) | Frisco Panther Creek | 3 | 61.9% |
| 4A DI | Region III | Kilgore (11-1) vs. Needville (10-2) | Kilgore | 10 | 72.0% |
| 4A DI | Region III | Alvin Iowa Colony (12-0) vs. Tyler Chapel Hill (10-2) | Alvin Iowa Colony | 5 | 63.5% |
| 4A DI | Region IV | La Vernia (10-2) vs. San Antonio Davenport (9-3) | La Vernia | 8 | 68.1% |
| 4A DI | Region IV | Alice (10-1) vs. Port Lavaca Calhoun (8-4) | Alice | 5 | 63.5% |
| 4A DII | Region I | Canyon West Plains (11-1) vs. Monahans (12-0) | Canyon West Plains | 2 | 53.0% |
| 4A DII | Region I | Glen Rose (8-4) vs. Seminole (11-1) | Glen Rose | 7 | 69.6% |
| 4A DII | Region II | Carthage (12-0) vs. Texarkana Pleasant Grove (12-0) | Carthage | 1 | 56.2% |
| 4A DII | Region II | Gilmer (9-3) vs. Aubrey (8-3) | Gilmer | 4 | 51.7% |
| 4A DII | Region III | Bellville (12-0) vs. Silsbee (12-0) | Bellville | 21 | 93.0% |
| 4A DII | Region III | Cuero (12-0) vs. Jasper (8-4) | Cuero | 3 | 61.9% |
| 4A DII | Region IV | Wimberley (12-0) vs. Ingleside (11-1) | Wimberley | 26 | 96.1% |
| 4A DII | Region IV | Sinton (9-2) vs. Geronimo Navarro (9-3) | Sinton | 1 | 56.2% |
| 3A DI | Region I | Paradise (11-1) vs. Bushland (11-1) | Paradise | 5 | 63.5% |
| 3A DI | Region I | Brock (9-3) vs. Clyde (11-1) | Brock | 32 | 93.7% |
| 3A DI | Region II | Winnsboro (11-0) vs. Whitney (11-1) | Winnsboro | 3 | 61.9% |
| 3A DI | Region II | Malakoff (12-0) vs. Grandview (11-1) | Malakoff | 15 | 75.0% |
| 3A DI | Region III | Columbus (12-0) vs. Lorena (10-2) | Columbus | 14 | 80.2% |
| 3A DI | Region III | Franklin (11-1) vs. Little River Academy (10-2) | Franklin | 11 | 73.2% |
| 3A DI | Region IV | Goliad (10-2) vs. Blanco (10-2) | Goliad | 3 | 61.9% |
| 3A DI | Region IV | Edna (9-2) vs. Vanderbilt Industrial (8-3) | Edna | 16 | 83.4% |
| 3A DII | Region I | Canadian (12-0) vs. Idalou (8-4) | Canadian | 30 | 98.8% |
| 3A DII | Region I | Wall (10-2) vs. Lubbock Roosevelt (9-3) | Wall | 20 | 86.8% |
| 3A DII | Region II | Gunter (12-0) vs. Comanche (8-4) | Gunter | 37 | 98.5% |
| 3A DII | Region II | Holliday (11-1) vs. Jacksboro (12-0) | Holliday | 2 | 53.0% |
| 3A DII | Region III | Newton (10-0) vs. Gilmer Harmony (10-2) | Newton | 17 | 79.2% |
| 3A DII | Region III | Daingerfield (9-3) vs. New London West Rusk (10-2) | Daingerfield | 18 | 79.7% |
| 3A DII | Region IV | Tidehaven (11-0) vs. Rogers (9-3) | Tidehaven | 25 | 98.2% |
| 3A DII | Region IV | Poth (11-1) vs. Lexington (9-3) | Poth | 20 | 86.8% |
| 2A DI | Region I | Hawley (10-2) vs. Sonora (11-1) | Hawley | 15 | 75.0% |
| 2A DI | Region I | Stratford (12-0) vs. New Deal (9-3) | Stratford | 18 | 79.7% |
| 2A DI | Region II | Tolar (11-1) vs. Italy (7-5) | Tolar | 31 | 97.4% |
| 2A DI | Region II | Marlin (10-2) vs. Tioga (9-3) | Marlin | 2 | 53.0% |
| 2A DI | Region III | Garrison (11-1) vs. Cooper (11-1) | Garrison | 2 | 53.0% |
| 2A DI | Region III | Timpson (12-0) vs. Honey Grove (10-1) | Timpson | 20 | 86.8% |
| 2A DI | Region IV | Refugio (11-1) vs. Weimar (10-2) | Refugio | 27 | 91.7% |
| 2A DI | Region IV | Ganado (10-2) vs. Holland (12-0) | Ganado | 10 | 72.0% |
| 2A DII | Region I | Sunray (10-2) vs. Wellington (9-3) | Sunray | 13 | 74.4% |
| 2A DII | Region I | Gruver (10-2) vs. Clarendon (9-3) | Gruver | 4 | 51.7% |
| 2A DII | Region II | Albany (12-0) vs. Muenster (8-4) | Albany | 19 | 87.3% |
| 2A DII | Region II | Collinsville (11-1) vs. Roscoe (10-2) | Collinsville | 12 | 78.8% |
| 2A DII | Region III | Mart (12-0) vs. Deweyville (10-2) | Mart | 23 | 95.0% |
| 2A DII | Region III | Lovelady (12-0) vs. Tenaha (10-2) | Lovelady | 8 | 68.1% |
| 2A DII | Region IV | Bremond (9-3) vs. Falls City (9-3) | Bremond | 11 | 73.2% |
| 2A DII | Region IV | Chilton (11-1) vs. Granger (10-2) | Chilton | 10 | 72.0% |
| 1A DI | Region I | Happy (11-1) vs. Miami (12-0) | Happy | 8 | 68.1% |
| 1A DI | Region II | Westbrook (11-1) vs. Borden County (11-1) | Westbrook | 13 | 74.4% |
| 1A DI | Region III | Abbott (12-0) vs. Gordon (12-0) | Abbott | 3 | 61.9% |
| 1A DI | Region IV | Jonesboro (11-1) vs. May (9-3) | Jonesboro | 20 | 86.8% |
| 1A DII | Region I | Lamesa Klondike (10-1) vs. Balmorhea (10-2) | Lamesa Klondike | 20 | 86.8% |
| 1A DII | Region II | Jayton (12-0) vs. Benjamin (12-0) | Jayton | 1 | 56.2% |
| 1A DII | Region III | Oglesby (11-0) vs. Iredell (11-1) | Oglesby | 9 | 67.5% |
| 1A DII | Region IV | Richland Springs (12-0) vs. Cherokee (10-1) | Richland Springs | 2 | 53.0% |
| TAPPS DI | — | Dallas Parish Episcopal (8-3) vs San Antonio Antonian Prep (9-2) | Dallas Parish Episcopal | 16 | 83.4% |
| TAPPS DI | — | Plano Prestonwood (7-3) vs Houston St. Thomas (11-0) | Plano Prestonwood | 2 | 53.0% |
| TAPPS DII | — | Argyle Liberty Christian (12-0) vs Fort Worth All Saints Episcopal (9-2) | Argyle Liberty Christian | 23 | 95.0% |
| TAPPS DII | — | Austin Regents School (11-1) vs Houston Second Baptist (8-4) | Austin Regents School | 8 | 68.1% |
| TAPPS DIII | — | Cypress Community Christian (8-3) vs San Antonio Holy Cross (9-2) | Cypress Community Christian | Too close to call | 50.1% |
| TAPPS DIII | — | Dallas Christian School (11-1) vs Lubbock Trinity Christian (8-2) | Dallas Christian School | 21 | 93.0% |
| TAPPS DIV | — | Dallas First Baptist Academy (11-0) vs Houston Northland Christian (7-4) | Dallas First Baptist Academy | 22 | 86.2% |
| TAPPS DIV | — | Lubbock Christian (10-2) vs Hallettsville Sacred Heart (11-0) | Lubbock Christian | 3 | 61.9% |
| TAPPS 6M DI | — | Austin Hill Country (9-1) vs Austin Veritas Academy (5-4) | Austin Hill Country | 24 | 92.6% |
| TAPPS 6M DI | — | Houston Emery-Weiner School (9-1) vs Giddings State School (8-3) | Houston Emery-Weiner School | 14 | 80.2% |
| TAPPS 6M DII | — | Abilene Christian (10-2) vs Lucas Christian Academy (10-2) | Abilene Christian | 1 | 56.2% |
| TAPPS 6M DII | — | Pasadena First Baptist (12-0) vs Conroe Covenant (11-1) | Pasadena First Baptist | 17 | 79.2% |
| TAPPS 6M DIII | — | Bryan St. Joseph (10-0) vs Baytown Christian (7-4) | Bryan St. Joseph | 9 | 67.5% |
| TAPPS 6M DIII | — | Prestonwood North (9-1) vs Nazarene Christian Academy (10-2) | Prestonwood North | 6 | 66.1% |
| TAIAO DI | — | Fort Bend Chargers Home Sch (10-2) vs Bulverde Gloria Deo (11-1) | Fort Bend Chargers Home School | 5 | 63.5% |
| TAIAO DII | — | East Texas Homeschool (ETHS) (9-1) vs Victoria Cobras Home Sch (11-0) | East Texas Homeschool | 6 | 66.1% |
| TAIAO DIII | — | Granbury Grace Classical (5-4) vs Hill County (4-8) | Granbury Grace Classical | 7 | 69.6% |
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