Spring ball is done. My magazine assignments are turned in. And all that is left between us and the college football season, which kicks off at the FBS level in Texas on Aug. 29 when TCU travels across the pond to face North Carolina in Ireland, is roughly 100 days away. 

I traveled over 2,000 miles in April, wrote more than 50,000 words, and spoke to all 13 FBS head coaches in Texas to prepare for the Dave Campbell’s Texas Football summer magazine. Those stops helped me solidify some hot takes for the upcoming season, which I’ll share below. 

I waited until August to do this last year and a lookback at those predictions reveals a 50 percent success clip. I was right about North Texas playing in the American Conference championship, Texas State winning seven games, Houston starting 6-1, TCU winning eight games in the regular season, and that at least two Texas teams would make the College Football Playoff. I was wrong about Rice posting the lowest win total in Texas, A&M failing to hit the over, SMU returning to the ACC Championship game, UTEP winning a bowl, and Texas winning a national championship. 

But, spoiler alert, I might dip back into a couple of those predictions that were off and double down on some of those takes. 

10. North Texas finishes above .500 

The Mean Green won 12 games last year and were rewarded by a mass exodus that included head coach Eric Morris and QB Drew Mestemaker. Neal Brown was an inspired hire and North Texas will get back to the top of the American Conference soon, but not in 2026. Just reaching a bowl game and finishing the season 7-6 or better would be considered success in Denton. An 0-3 start is possible with road games against Indiana and Texas State and a home tilt with UNLV all by Sept. 20. The conference slate is manageable, however, and we expect the team to get better as the season goes along. Give me North Texas to finish at 6-6 and then win the bowl game to be 7-5. 

9. Rice misses a bowl game 

This might not seem like a spicy take until you realize that the Owls have gone bowling in three of the last four seasons, including in Year 1 of the Scotty Abell era. I feel confident that Rice will be improved in his second season in charge and that transfer quarterback Jacurri Brown provides a spark on offense while Jon Kay’s defense creates more turnovers. 

However, the schedule is brutal. The Owls might be an underdog in three of the four non-conference games and the last four games of the season include trips to North Texas and Temple, a dark horse AC contender, and home games against Tulane and Army. The season opener against Houston Christian and a home game against Tulsa on Oct. 17 might be the only two games that Rice is favored in all season.  

8. Five teams start the season in the AP Top 25 

Okay, maybe preseason polls don’t matter in the grand scheme of things, but they do set a baseline for expectations. The state of Texas will assuredly have three teams – Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech – in the AP Top 25. But I believe it’ll be five with Houston and SMU sneaking into the 20 to 25 range in the polls. SMU is right there with Louisville to reach the ACC Championship game against Miami and Houston returns its head coach, all three coordinators, and the starting quarterback from a 10-win team. Give me those five to start the year in the AP Top 25. Maybe TCU makes it six. 

7. Sam Houston reaches a bowl game 

Hand up, I’ll admit I can see Sam Houston’s going in two different directions and neither would shock me. On one hand, the roster is undoubtedly improved and head coach Phil Longo believes he has his present and future at quarterback in Landyn Locke. On the other, the Bearkats didn’t look prepared at times last year and that’s not always about talent. They ranked last in Conference USA in scoring offense and scoring defense and we have no idea if that was more about the talent on the roster or in the coaching booth. We’ll know more about Sam Houston after 2026, and I’ll be an optimist here and say an improved roster and a conference that allows upward mobility is enough for Sam Houston to reach 6-6. 

6. UTSA finishes the season with the most wins in the G6 (in Texas) 

This isn’t a prediction that the Roadrunners will be the best G6 team in Texas because that is likely determined in Week 2 when UTSA heads to San Marcos to face a Texas State team on a two-game winning streak in the rivalry. In fact, I have the Bobcats making it three in a row. But there are 11 other games on the schedule and I feel like UTSA’s path in American Conference action is easier than Texas State’s in its first voyage in the Pac-12.

For one, UTSA’s road conference games are Rice, Tulane, FAU, and UAB. Texas State’s road conference games are San Diego State, Boise State, Oregon State, and Colorado State. Advantage Roadrunners. UTSA also avoids Memphis, East Carolina, and Army. Conference familiarity and travel also play a role in my thinking here. UTSA’s played these teams and traveled to these stadiums. Texas State has not. How will the travel impact Texas State? That’s hard to know. 

Give me UTSA to finish 8-4 and for Texas State to be 7-5. I don’t think North Texas, Rice, UTEP, or Sam Houston get above six. 

5. SMU plays in the ACC title game 

Someone with real fortitude would go all-in and pick SMU to win the ACC, but I am not someone. The Hurricanes are clearly the conference favorite. The Mustangs are in that next group of contenders with Louisville, NC State, Georgia Tech, and Clemson. And while the start of the season includes trips to Florida State and Louisville in September, the rest of the schedule is friendly, namely not playing Miami. SMU doesn’t play a road game between Sept. 20 and Oct. 30. That’s insane. And the only two conference road games after the Sept. 20 trip to Louisville are Syracuse and Stanford. Rhett Lashlee & Co. are 14-2 in the regular season as an ACC program and they’ve won at Louisville before. Give me the Ponies to go 8-1 in conference play and face Miami in Charlotte. 

4. The Big 12 Championship game involves two Texas teams 

Texas Tech is one of them and that’s not a bold take, even if it is a good bet that QB Brendan Sorsby is ruled ineligible for the 2026 season. The Red Raiders still have an elite running back room and the best offensive and defensive lines in the Big 12. Not to mention the league’s best tight end, linebacker room, and cornerback. They also don’t face Utah or BYU. But who faces the Red Raiders in Arlington? Give me either Houston or TCU. I’m high on the Horned Frogs as a dark horse contender thanks to a new offensive system that will emphasize low turnovers and high efficiency. Houston will be a trendy dark horse pick because of continuity and trust in head coach Willie Fritz. 

3. Texas wins the SEC and plays for a national championship 

I picked Texas to win the national championship last year and I’ll admit that was off base. I should’ve seen the inconsistency coming after losing four starters along the offensive line and breaking in a brand new quarterback in Arch Manning. But I’m back on the horse and ready to be hurt again. Manning is now a seasoned vet, the offensive line returns three starters and was improved through the portal, and the skill positions are now stacked with stars like WR Cam Coleman and RB Raleek Brown. Colin Simmons headlines a defense that is now under the direction of Will Muschamp. The schedule is scary, but so are the Longhorns. I’m picking Oregon to win it all so I’ll predict that the Horns win the SEC and reach the title game. 

2. Dave Aranda makes it through the season 

Notice I didn’t predict that Aranda is the coach for 2027. But I do think he can make a strong case for it, especially early in the season. Baylor’s schedule sets up for a 3-1 or 4-0 start depending on the road game against Auburn in Atlanta. The next three after that are Prairie View A&M, La Tech, and Colorado – all at home. There is also a three-game stretch of winnable games against Kansas, UCF, and Iowa State starting on Oct. 24. It is perfectly reasonable to see the Bears being 6-3 heading into the final three games of the year. 

Baylor isn’t going to fire a coach that’s bowl eligible or in the hunt for a bowl that late into the season. Aranda probably needs eight or so wins to save his job and be on the sidelines in 2026 and a 6-3 start gives him a shot at that. The problem? The last three games are at BYU, vs. Texas Tech, and at Houston. End the year 0-3 and finish around .500 on the season, and the Baylor brass must move on. 

1. Three Texas teams reach the CFP 

Give me Texas and Texas Tech as near locks for the 12-team field. I believe both win their conferences. The Longhorns can also sneak in as a 10-2, or maybe even a 9-3, at-large bid because of that schedule, especially if they can beat Ohio State at home in Week 2. Give me SMU to reach the field in the same way it did in 2024. The Mustangs go 10-2 in the regular season with one of those losses being on the road to Notre Dame and then fall in a close one to Miami in the ACC Championship game to finish the year 10-3 and the 11-seed in the CFP.