Texas Tech must run the table and win the Big 12 championship to reach the College Football Playoff. That’s because the Big 12 will only get one bid.

This isn’t a value judgment. For our money, the Big 12 deserves at least two in the dance considering its record against fellow Power Four conferences, especially when compared to the ACC. But what should be is rarely what is in the world of college football. 

The reason the Big 12 will only get one bid in 2025 is simple: Math. There are 12 teams in the field and five of those spots are guaranteed to conference champions of the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, and the top-ranked G5 conference champion. With Notre Dame righting the ship and marching towards another trip to the CFP, that leaves six spots up for grabs. 

The Big Ten will take at least three of the spots in the tournament. Let’s say Ohio State wins the conference championship. Indiana and Oregon will also receive invites. The SEC is likely to land at least four, maybe even five, into the field. That includes the conference champion, which we'll say is Texas A&M for this exercise. The SEC is currently home to the No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, No. 7, and No. 9 team in the nation. A couple of those will fall off as more matchups happen, but it is unlikely that the SEC receives fewer than four bids this year with three of those being at-large. 

So, if the Big Ten takes two of the six at-large spots and the SEC snags three more, that leaves one at-large spot and it’ll be a dogfight between the second-place teams in the ACC and the Big 12. Right or wrong, we feel like the CFP committee will lean towards the ACC with how things stand right now. No. 8 Georgia Tech is 8-0, ranked two spots above undefeated BYU. No. 10 Miami, which is 6-1, sits three spots ahead of No. 13-ranked Texas Tech. Louisville is one spot ahead of Cincinnati. At every turn, the voters are favoring the ACC team over the Big 12 team. That’s not a good sign for the Big 12. 

Until the perception of the league changes, teams within the Big 12 won’t receive the benefit of the doubt. SEC teams aren’t punished for losing on the road to quality competition. Mostly everyone else is, especially in the Big 12. Parity is celebrated in the SEC, it is used as a pejorative when describing the Big 12. Texas Tech should receive a mulligan for losing by four on the road to the defending conference champion with a backup quarterback, but I’ll believe it when I see it. 

The Red Raiders must take the decision out of the hands of the committee. Think of it like an underdog in a boxing championship bout – don’t leave it in the hands of the judges or they’ll screw you. That’s where Texas Tech is. Do you trust the committee to pick a 10-2 Texas Tech over a 10-2 Miami? Or an 11-2 Texas Tech over an 11-2 Georgia Tech? I wouldn’t. The same is true if we plug in BYU or Cincinnati for Texas Tech. The committee showed what it thought of the Big 12 last year when Arizona State was ranked behind three-loss Alabama and when BYU was the lowest ranked two-loss P4 team.  

The good news for Joey McGuire & Co. is that they can control their own destiny. Texas Tech has four games left and one of those is at home against an undefeated BYU squad. Win that, and the Red Raiders can march to Arlington, likely for a showdown with Cincinnati. Tech should be favored in all four of its remaining conference games and would likely be the favorite in the Big 12 championship against any opponent in the conference. 

Tech is one of the best 12 teams in the country and they’re the most talented team in the Big 12. The defensive line is elite, the offensive line is among the best in the Big 12, and quarterback Behren Morton returns for the Week 10 trip to Kansas State. Anything short of a Big 12 championship and a trip to the CFP will feel like a disappointment, even with the injury concerns at quarterback. That’s how good this roster is compared to the rest of the conference. 

But this is college football and nothing is guaranteed. Games aren’t played with Vegas lines or power ratings. They’re played on the field. Texas Tech is five wins away from winning their first outright conference championship since the 1950s and becoming the fourth team in Texas to reach the CFP. The only thing that can stop them is themselves. Unless they lose one more game, of course, because then it would be the committee that stops them.