We’ve made it to August and that means college football is back, baby. We made it through the dark and lonely offseason, so kiss your loved ones goodbye, improve your television set up, and get ready for 15-hour days on the couch each Saturday. 

To celebrate the return of college football, here are 10 bold predictions for the 2025 season. We’ll revisit the list after the year to see how well, or how poorly, I can see the future. 

10. UTSA or North Texas play for the American title 

UTSA is the third betting favorite to win the American Conference behind Tulane, a team it plays at home, and Navy, a team it doesn’t play at all. The Roadrunners also avoid Memphis and drew Army at home. Quarterback Owen McCown leads an offense that should rank amongst the lead’s best. The defense is a question mark. UTSA won 32 games over the three seasons from 2021-23, including a 7-1 mark in their American debut. We’ll assume the 7-6 mark last season was an aberration and not the start of a trend. 

The defense was a question mark for North Texas in the first two seasons of the Eric Morris era. He hopes that’s changed with the arrival of hot shot defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity, who turned around the Sam Houston defense in one year and helped the Bearkats win 10 games. We think the Mean Green are a dark horse candidate to reach the American championship game if Cassity can work his magic. Morris has proven he can replace his best players on offense and still score points. The schedule also shapes up for a run because North Texas avoids Memphis and Tulane and plays UTSA, Navy, and South Florida at home. 

9. Another 7-5 regular season for Texas State 

The last hurrah for Texas State in the Sun Belt is a tough one to predict. The Bobcats went 7-5 in the regular season in each of G.J. Kinne’s first two seasons in charge and we believe history will repeat itself because of roster turnover and a tough schedule. Texas State lost quarterback Jordan McCloud and Joey Hobert to graduation. Players such as Alex Harkey, Ish Maudi, Josh Eaton, and four defensive linemen left San Marcos for Power Four opportunities. 

BetMGM lists the team total at 7.5 and it is hard to find eight or more wins. The non-conference schedule includes a trip to UTSA to face a Roadrunners program that is 29-3 at home in Jeff Traylor’s tenure and a visit to Arizona State to face the defending Big 12 champions. The Sun Belt slate includes James Madison, Troy, and a game at Louisiana, a team that Texas State has never beaten. Lose those five games and that is a 7-5 finish. 

8. Rice has the lowest win total in the state 

I believe in Scott Abell’s long-term prospects to win at Rice. I’m not sure I believe those wins come often in 2025. This was a two-team race between the Owls and Sam Houston for me. It isn’t a coincidence that those are the two teams with new head coaches. Holding onto a roster is tough as a G6 program, it is even tougher with coaching staff turnover. The Owls didn’t suffer as much as Sam Houston, but the schedule is harder in the American. Rice isn’t the type of institution that allows for massive roster turnover so Abell is working with inherited players who might not fit the system right away. Rice plays Houston at home and away against Louisiana, UTSA, and Navy over the first six games. 

7. Texas A&M goes under the win total of 8 

As I’ve written this offseason, your view on Texas A&M’s prospects for 2025 hinge on belief, or lack of belief, in quarterback Marcel Reed. It is easy to talk yourself into believing the Aggies are a dark horse candidate in the SEC. It always is. They return arguably the top offensive line group in America, possess a tremendous running back room, improved the arsenal of weapons on offense through the portal, and should take a step forward in Year 2 on defense under Mike Elko. 

But I can’t talk myself into Reed. Maybe he’s a perfect fit with offensive coordinator Collin Klein and the Texas A&M offense looks like it did in the second half versus LSU, but the 0-4 stretch against P4 teams to end last season is hard to shake from memory. With a schedule that includes trips to Notre Dame, LSU, Missouri, and Texas and a home slate with contests against Auburn, Florida, and South Carolina, the Aggies will need Reed’s arm to win a couple of games and I’ll have to see it to believe it. 

6. SMU returns to the ACC championship game 

Reaching the title game in Charlotte won’t be as easy for the Mustangs in 2025. For one, they won’t be taken lightly. Two, the schedule is tougher. SMU plays Clemson and Miami in the regular season after avoiding both in the maiden voyage into the ACC. But that trip to Clemson is the only tough road game in conference play. The other coin flip games – Syracuse, Miami, Louisville – are all at home. A non-conference slate that includes Baylor and a visit to TCU in the last scheduled “Battle for the Iron Skillet” is a challenge, but even an 0-2 record in those games doesn’t impact SMU’s ACC potential. 

5. Houston starts 6-1

The Big 12 always produces a predicted bottom feeder turned Cinderella story. It was Baylor in 2021, TCU in 2022, Oklahoma State in 2023, and Arizona State in 2024. Houston is the most likely candidate to rise from bottom tier in the preseason to the top shelf by December. That’s because of our confidence in Willie Fritz the program builder and 30 new transfers, headlined by a healthy and in shape Conner Weigman at quarterback. The offensive line is revamped, as well. 

Close your eyes and let me paint the picture of the 6-1 Houston Cougars. They start with two relatively easy wins over SFA and Rice as the multitude of transfers and new coordinators work out the kinks. They then host a Colorado team that is undergoing major changes without Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter on a Friday night. After an early idle week, Houston heads to Oregon State. Have I talked you into a 4-0 start, yet? If I have, we only need the Coogs to win two of the next three against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Arizona to reach that six-win mark. 

4. UTEP wins a bowl game

The last time the Miners won a bowl game was 1967. Of the five bowl victories in program history, all took place at the Sun Bowl. That changes in 2025. UTEP should win at least six games in the regular season. The only two games on the schedule that feel impossible to win are against Texas and Liberty. Everything else is up for grabs. That’s life in Conference USA, especially with no Western Kentucky on the schedule. UTEP has signed the top recruiting class in CUSA the last two years and did a solid job in the portal. Seven or eight wins is possible and no one will be as motivated to win their bowl game if the Miners in fact make the postseason. 

3. TCU wins eight games

TCU is the forgotten Big 12 contender. The Frogs return starting quarterback Josh Hoover, most of its offensive line, and key pieces at all three levels of the defense. Sonny Dykes says the 2025 roster is his deepest yet at TCU and that there are 60-70 players in Fort Worth that he feels comfortable playing. Continuity is also a strength. Dykes is entering Year 4. Offensive coordinator Kendal Briles is entering Year 3. Defensive coordinator Andy Avalos is entering Year 2. Much was made this offseason about how Baylor finished the 2024 campaign and how that will propel the Bears toward Big 12 contention, but what about TCU? The Horned Frogs won six of their last seven and the only loss was by three points on the road in Waco. We think TCU smashes its win total of 6.5 and competes for one of the spots in the Big 12 championship game into November. The schedule is tough on paper with trips to Arizona State and Kansas State, but in the Big 12, everything is a coin flip.  

2. At least two Texas teams reach the CFP

The state of Texas has produced at least one CFP team over the last three seasons. It was TCU in 2022 and Texas in 2023. Last year, both the Longhorns and SMU reached the postseason. We believe two teams will return in 2025. Texas should be one of those teams. Even a 10-2 Texas team will make the CFP. The other spot is the tricky one. Can SMU repeat its success and return to the dance? Does Texas Tech’s portal crop hit and win the Big 12? What about Baylor or even TCU? The dark horse could be Texas A&M. Playing in the SEC provides more wiggle room because two losses doesn’t disqualify you from selection. We believe there are 4-6 contenders and that two will emerge. Our best guess would be Texas and Texas Tech. 

1. The Longhorns win the national championship  

Texas reached the semifinal in consecutive years and we believe the Horns will push past that mark and claim a national championship. The defense should be one of the top units in the country and Arch Manning and that offense will only improve as the year goes on. A 10-2 record will be good enough even if Texas doesn’t play for the SEC title because of a schedule that includes Ohio State, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Florida – all away from Austin. Texas could pull an Ohio State from last year when the Buckeyes were supremely talented but not the best regular season team. The 12-team playoff affords those types of programs more opportunities than ever to get their feet under them as the season goes on and that’s how we view the Longhorns in 2025.