Readers often inquire about how I determine my conference predictions in the summer magazine. It’s not a complicated or scientific formula. I start by separating teams into tiers from top to bottom. Some conferences are more top-heavy with as many as five or six teams capable of winning the title. Others have one or two teams with a significant talent advantage compared to the rest of the conference.

My next step is to understand that the home team wins nearly 60% of college football games, which means the road team must be significantly better to predict a victory. If two teams are in the same tier, the game is considered a toss-up, and the home team is awarded the win. Conference games are denoted by an asterisk next to the opponent's name.

Angelo State

Date	Opponent	Result
Aug. 28	at Fort Hays State	L
Sept. 6	Emporia State	W
Sept. 13	at Eastern New Mexico*	W
Sept. 20	Western New Mexico*	W
Oct. 4	UTPB*	W
Oct. 11	at Texas A&M-Kingsville*	L
Oct. 18	Midwestern State*	W
Oct. 25	at Sul Ross State*	W
Nov. 1	at Central Washington	L
Nov. 8	Western Oregon	W
Nov. 15	at West Texas A&M	W

Prediction: 8-3, 7-2 LSC

Ceiling: 11-0

The best Rams offense in the Jeff Girsch era, combined with another solid defense, allows ASU to win their tough road contests, leading to another LSC title and the top seed in Super Region Four.

Floor: 5-6

ASU may only have five guaranteed wins on the schedule, but the Rams would need to suffer multiple injuries at key positions to finish below .500 in 2025.

Central Washington

Date	Opponent	Result
Aug. 28	Colorado Mesa	W
Sept. 6	at Montana	L
Sept. 20	West Texas A&M*	W
Sept. 27	at Western New Mexico*	W
Oct. 4	Eastern New Mexico*	W
Oct. 11	at UTPB*	L
Oct. 18	Texas A&M-Kingsville*	W
Oct. 25	at Midwestern State*	W
Nov. 1	Angelo State*	W
Nov. 8	at Sul Ross State*	W
Nov. 15	at Western Oregon*	W

Prediction: 9-2, 8-1 LSC

Ceiling: 10-1

If the Wildcats leave their Week 2 game against the Grizzlies healthy, they could run the table in the LSC with the lessons they learn playing against one of the top FCS teams.

Floor: 5-6

Colorado Mesa and Montana will be challenging contests, and key injuries could lead CWU into a downward spiral to end the season. Still, they have the depth to win at least five conference games.

Eastern New Mexico

Date	Opponent	Result
Aug. 28	New Mexico Highlands	W
Sept. 6	at Colorado Mesa	L
Sept. 13	Angelo State*	L
Sept. 20	at Midwestern State*	L
Oct. 4	at Central Washington*	L
Oct. 11	Western Oregon*	L
Oct. 18	at West Texas A&M*	L
Oct. 25	Western New Mexico*	W
Nov. 1	Sul Ross State*	W
Nov. 8	at UTPB*	L
Nov. 15	Texas A&M-Kingsville*	L

Prediction: 3-8, 2-7 LSC

Ceiling: 6-5

Kelley Lee’s offense finds its groove in his second season back in Portales and leads the Greyhounds to their highest win total since ENMU won eight games in 2019.

Floor: 0-11

Depth is always a concern for the teams at the lower end of funding in the LSC, and one or two injuries can quickly derail a team’s season in this situation. 

Midwestern State

Date	Opponent	Result
Aug. 30	at Missouri Southern	L
Sept. 6	Western Colorado	L
Sept. 20	Eastern New Mexico*	W
Sept. 27	at UTPB*	L
Oct. 4	Texas A&M-Kingsville*	L
Oct. 11	at Sul Ross State*	W
Oct. 18	at Angelo State*	L
Oct. 25	Central Washington*	L
Nov. 1	at Western Oregon*	L
Nov. 8	West Texas A&M*	W
Nov. 15	at Western New Mexico*	W

Prediction: 4-7, 4-5 LSC

Ceiling: 8-3

The Mustangs' offense excels under Kirk Bryant, and Blake Frazier’s defense remains solid to lead MSU to a spot in the NCAA Division II playoffs in Rich Renner’s second season at the helm.

Floor: 1-10

The reality is that MSU is no longer among the top-funded athletic departments in the LSC. The Mustangs are closer to the bottom than the top of the conference, and that will eventually be evident in the results.

Sul Ross State

Date	Opponent	Result
Aug. 30	at UTRGV	L
Sept. 13	at SFA	L
Sept. 20	at Western Oregon*	L
Sept. 27	Texas A&M-Kingsville*	L
Oct. 4	at West Texas A&M*	L
Oct. 11	Midwestern State*	L
Oct. 18	at Western New Mexico*	L
Oct. 25	Angelo State*	L
Nov. 1	at Eastern New Mexico*	L
Nov. 8	Central Washington*	L
Nov. 15	at UTPB*	L

Prediction: 0-11, 0-9 LSC

Ceiling: 3-8

Lee Hays works numerous miracles in his first season and leads the Lobos to three LSC victories, avoiding the cellar.

Floor: 0-11

The prediction isn’t an indictment of any coach. I’m not sure there’s a current DII head coach who would navigate the Lobos to success with such a brutal schedule. SRSU begins the season with three road games, and their home slate includes three of the top teams in the conference.

Texas A&M-Kingsville

Date	Opponent	Result
Sept. 6	Lincoln (Calif.)	W
Sept. 13	at Northwest Missouri State	L
Sept. 20	UTPB*	W
Sept. 27	at Sul Ross State*	W
Oct. 4	at Midwestern State*	W
Oct. 11	Angelo State*	W
Oct. 18	at Central Washington*	L
Oct. 25	Western Oregon*	W
Nov. 1	at West Texas A&M*	W
Nov. 8	Western New Mexico*	W
Nov. 15	at Eastern New Mexico*	W

Prediction: 9-2, 8-1 LSC

Ceiling: 9-2

My prediction typically falls in the middle of the difference between the ceiling and the floor. However, the only ingredient the Javelinas have been missing is an efficient offense, which could be the difference in one-score games when combined with their stout defense. Home wins over UTPB and Angelo State are crucial to reaching their full potential.

Floor: 3-8

The offense needs another year under head coach Scott Parr and offensive coordinator Brad Wilson, and the defense’s production slips compared to recent years.

UTPB

Date	Opponent	Result
Aug. 30	Central Oklahoma	L
Sept. 6	at Adams State	W
Sept. 20	at Texas A&M-Kingsville*	L
Sept. 27	Midwestern State*	W
Oct. 4	at Angelo State*	L
Oct. 11	Central Washington*	W
Oct. 18	at Western Oregon*	W
Oct. 25	West Texas A&M*	W
Nov. 1	at Western New Mexico*	W
Nov. 8	Eastern New Mexico*	W
Nov. 15	Sul Ross State*	W

Prediction: 8-3, 7-2

Ceiling: 11-0

The Falcons ride the momentum of a quality win to open the season against a nationally ranked UCO squad to secure the program’s second LSC outright title in three years and a postseason appearance for the third consecutive season.

Floor: 6-5

Early-season injuries at key positions proved costly for UTPB in 2024, and a similar situation could occur if the Falcons are unable to stay healthy while navigating a challenging first seven games.

West Texas A&M

Date	Opponent	Result
Aug. 28	at Western Colorado	L
Sept. 4	Colorado School of Mines	L
Sept. 13	at Western New Mexico*	W
Sept. 20	at Central Washington*	L
Sept. 27	Western Oregon*	W
Oct. 4	Sul Ross State*	W
Oct. 18	Eastern New Mexico*	W
Oct. 25	at UTPB*	L
Nov. 1	Texas A&M-Kingsville*	L
Nov. 8	at Midwestern State*	L
Nov. 15	Angelo State*	L

Prediction: 4-7, 4-5 LSC

Ceiling: 8-3

WT fans would be ecstatic with three wins in their first four contests, and that momentum could lead to a potential spot in the DII playoffs in a critical year for head coach Josh Lynn.

Floor: 2-9

The Buffs have been teetering between promise and disaster seemingly every year of Lynn’s tenure, and a multitude of negatives, including NCAA sanctions during the offseason, prove too much to overcome.

Western New Mexico

Date	Opponent	Result
Aug. 30	Adams State	W
Sept. 6	at New Mexico Highlands	L
Sept. 13	West Texas A&M*	L
Sept. 20	at Angelo State*	L
Sept. 27	Central Washington*	L
Oct. 4	at Western Oregon*	L
Oct. 18	Sul Ross State*	W
Oct. 25	at Eastern New Mexico*	L
Nov. 1	UTPB*	L
Nov. 8	at Texas A&M-Kingsville*	L
Nov. 15	Midwestern State*	L

Prediction: 2-9, 1-8 LSC

Ceiling: 5-6

It’s not implausible for WNMU to win five games, considering the Mustangs open with two winnable games and host Sul Ross later in the season. A win over rival ENMU and a home upset over WT or MSU isn’t out of the question.

Floor: 0-11

It feels like I’m short-changing WNMU at least one win in the prediction, but the Mustangs program is always one or two injuries away from another winless season.

Western Oregon

Date	Opponent	Result
Sept. 6	Southern Oregon	W
Sept. 13	at Cal Poly	L
Sept. 20	Sul Ross State*	W
Sept. 27	at West Texas A&M*	L
Oct. 4	Western New Mexico*	W
Oct. 11	at Eastern New Mexico*	W
Oct. 18	UTPB*	L
Oct. 25	at Texas A&M-Kingsville*	L
Nov. 1	Midwestern State*	W
Nov. 8	at Angelo State*	L
Nov. 15	Central Washington*	L

Prediction: 5-6, 4-5 LSC

Ceiling: 7-4

The Wolves don’t play the top teams in the LSC until the second half of their schedule, which allows WOU to build momentum and carry a 5-1 record into a home game against UTPB. A win at home over rival CWU is also plausible.

Floor: 3-8

It cannot be overstated how challenging the travel is for teams in the Lone Star Conference. While the Texas teams complain, WOU and CWU make four trips to Texas or New Mexico every season. Those long flights and bus trips eventually catch up to the Wolves this year.