With spring break in the rear-view mirror, all eyes in Texas focus on spring ball for the 13 FBS programs in Texas. The 2025 season was a banner year for the Lone Star State with five teams finishing in the AP Top 25 for the first time in history. Ten of the 13 programs reached a bowl game and two – Texas Tech and Texas A&M – made the College Football Playoff. Five of the seven Power Four programs have reached the CFP since 2022 and North Texas was one win away from becoming our first G6 team to make the dance. 

It is time to look forward to 2026, however. Texas Tech and Texas are CFP favorites right now with teams like Texas A&M and SMU hoping to return to the 12-team field. In the G6 ranks, Texas State moves to the Pac-12 and hopes it can duplicate the jump that the Mean Green had in 2025. 

1. Texas Tech Red Raiders 

The only defending conference champion in Texas gets the nod in our spring Power Poll because the Red Raiders are the most likely to reach the College Football Playoff in 2026. Some of that is schedule and conference affiliation. Some of that is the all-in nature of West Texas. Joey McGuire & Co. reloaded the roster with one of the top transfer hauls in America, including prized quarterback Brendan Sorsby. Texas Tech led the nation in defensive stop rate in 2025 and should overwhelm opponents again in the trenches and at linebacker. A 12-0 record is not only possible, but likely. Texas Tech’s win total projection in Las Vegas is 11.5. 

2. Texas Longhorns 

Steve Sarkisian and his Horns are all-in heading into 2026, his sixth season in charge. The Longhorns missed the CFP for the first time since 2023 last year, but those growing pains should pay dividends in 2026. Arch Manning overcame early season struggles to emerge as one of the top signal callers in college football by the end of the season and his supporting cast is much improved heading into his second season as a full-time starter. The Horns added WR Cam Coleman and RBs Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers to the arsenal, along with a pair of projected starters along the offensive line. The big mystery is how a defense led by Will Muschamp performs. A tough schedule that includes a home game against Ohio State in the non-conference is the main obstacle. 

3. Texas A&M Aggies 

The Aggies replaced their offensive coordinator and lost their top receiver, four starters along the offensive line, the SEC Defensive Player of the Year at edge rusher, and a multiple time captain at linebacker from a 2025 team that started 11-0 and reached the CFP for the first time in program history. The good news for Mike Elko entering Year 3 in charge is that Marcel Reed is one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the SEC and that the staff are proven talent evaluators in the portal and on the recruiting trail. Still, it is hard to overlook the 0-2 finish to the season and the fact that Reed threw 14 touchdowns to 11 interceptions against P4 opponents. The schedule is also much, much tougher in 2026, including a stretch to end the season that includes trips to Alabama and Oklahoma as well as home games against Tennessee and Texas. 

4. SMU Mustangs 

Rhett Lashlee’s program is 14-2 in regular season games against ACC opponents and were a game away from playing in their third straight conference championship game. The Mustangs are quietly 31-10 over the last three years with a 22-2 mark in conference games over that time. And don’t expect the Ponies to take a step back in 2026 despite the losses around third-year quarterback Kevin Jennings, who is the most underrated signal caller in Texas over the past two seasons. SMU is more talented than they’ve been, even if that talent remains mostly unproven. The program has recruited well over the past couple of cycles and that young talent is champing at the bit to prove themselves against a manageable conference schedule that doesn’t include games against Miami or Clemson. 

5. Houston Cougars 

The Coogs followed a familiar script for Willie Fritz programs by enjoying the Year 2 bump that’s characterized his stops at multiple programs. Houston is betting on continuity in 2026 and are the only P4 team in Texas to return its head coach, both coordinators, and starting quarterback from 2025. But how much of that 10-win season last year was schedule luck? The Coogs avoided BYU and Utah and lost its only contest against a Top 20 team when Texas Tech knocked them off in Houston by 24 points. We love the transfer portal additions, specifically on offense, but the road to Big 12 contention includes a tough road schedule that includes trips to Tech, Kansas State, and Utah. 

6. TCU Horned Frogs 

Sonny Dykes is 36-17 in four years as the head coach at TCU and the Horned Frogs are the only current Big 12 program with a win in the College Football Playoff. On one hand, they’ve won nine games in back-to-back seasons. On the other, they’re 14-13 against the Big 12 since the start of 2023. There is a boom-or-bust feeling in Fort Worth heading into 2026 after losing QB Josh Hoover to defending national champion Indiana in the offseason. Hope rests on Harvard transfer QB Jaden Craig’s pairing with new offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis, who should help the Frogs improve their rushing attack. Andy Avalos is in Year 3 as defensive coordinator but that side of the ball must replace star linebackers Kaleb Elarms-Orr and Namdi Obiazor, as well as long-time starting safety Bud Clark. 

7. Baylor Bears 

Speaking of boom-or-bust, the Baylor Bears are one of the nation’s biggest mysteries heading into 2026. Former Mr. Texas Football and Florida starting quarterback DJ Lagway arrives in Waco to help keep the Bears atop the Big 12’s best offenses. The side of the ball that needs improving is the defense, however. Head coach Dave Aranda, who enters the season on the hottest seat in America, relinquished play calling to former Kansas State defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman. There is a chance that the Bears are the surprise team in the Big 12. There is as much or greater of a chance that Baylor is searching for a new head coach before the end of the season. 

8. Texas State Bobcats 

The G6 team in Texas with the best chance to flirt with a CFP appearance is located in San Marcos where fourth-year head coach G.J. Kinne leads his program into the new-look Pac-12 with one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Expect QB Brad Jackson to be a household name by the end of the season because he could flirt with 4,000 total yards and 40 touchdowns. Texas State was the only program in the FBS to boast two 1,000-yard receivers last year and both are back in the fold. Defense is where the Bobcats need to take a step forward to compete for a conference championship and Kinne tabbed Will Windham to lead that group into 2026. 

9. UTSA Roadrunners 

Jeff Traylor’s program was the cream of the crop in the G6 here in the Lone Star State before falling back to earth over the last two years, mostly because of poor performances on the road. UTSA is 3-10 away from the Alamodome since the start of 2024 and must figure out how to play outside of San Antonio to return to conference contention. The Roadrunners do return Owen McCown at quarterback and believe new offensive coordinator Rick Bowie will help him reach his ceiling in 2026. The American Conference is wide open because of coaching changes at the top of the conference, including at South Florida, Tulane, and Memphis. 

10. North Texas Mean Green 

North Texas was one of a handful of American Conference contenders who lost their head coach to a Power Four job after 2025. Former West Virginia head man Neal Brown replaces Eric Morris, who is now at Oklahoma State with most of the Mean Green staff and star players from the magical run last year. Brown & Co. signed an excellent transfer portal class and should be in bowl contention in Year 1, but a brutal non-conference schedule that starts with a trip to Indiana will test the depth early. 

11. Rice Owls

Scott Abell’s first year on South Main can’t be viewed as anything but a success after his Owls reached a bowl game. The next step is to post a winning season, something Rice hasn’t done in the last 11 seasons. QB Chase Jenkins’ transfer after the season was a shock, but UCF transfer Jacurri Brown is a solid replacement who could potentially give the offense a higher ceiling and we expect the unit is better overall in Year 2 of the system. The defense must take a step forward, specifically in the secondary. 

12. Sam Houston Bearkats 

Sam Houston was dealt a tough hand in 2025 with head coach Phil Longo being hired late in the coaching carousel and home games played over an hour away because of construction at Bowers Stadium. A revolving door at quarterback led to the offense ranking last in Conference USA in scoring. The defense also ranked last in the conference in scoring. The good news is that Bowers is ready to host the Bearkats in 2026 and Sam Houston is one of only two programs in Texas to return its starting quarterback, head coach, and both play callers. There is a lot of unknowns on the roster heading into spring, but that is true of most programs in CUSA. 

13. UTEP Miners 

The Miners took a step backwards in Year 2 under Scotty Walden during a 2-10 season last year. Walden is 5-19 in two years in charge with a 4-12 mark in conference play. The good news for UTEP is that the Miners are now in the Mountain West, a conference the fan base has clamored for over the last two decades. The bad news is that the competition in the Mountain West will be tougher than it was in Conference USA and there isn’t a lot of optimism that the Miners are ready for the jump. Walden replaced most of his staff this offseason and brough in transfer quarterback EJ Colson from FCS Incarnate Word to help cut down on turnovers and unleash his offense. UTEP has its third defensive coordinator in three years.