Narratives and talking points take center stage for the next 200 or so days as we slowly tick towards another college football season. But what are those narratives that will shape the 2026 offseason inside the state of Texas? Let’s examine five of them.   

1. Texas as a national championship contender  

The pundits that anointed the Longhorns as the top contender for the national championship in 2025 weren’t wrong, they were just early. Texas became the fastest team to drop from No. 1 in the preseason AP Poll to unranked before rebounding and finishing the season just outside the playoff. The Horns won’t suffer a similar fate in 2026, not with a reloaded roster through the transfer portal and the return of quarterback Arch Manning. 

The collective eye-rolling from other fan bases every offseason as the Texas hype machine gets carried away is understandable. After all, the Horns are always expected to compete for conference and national championships despite rarely cashing in on those promises over the last two decades. Manning was put on a pedestal too early and was overrated heading into the season. But by the end of the year, he was underrated. He finished his first season as a starter with over 3,500 yards of total offense and 36 touchdowns. Over his last five games, Manning accounted for 15 touchdowns to only one interception. 

Manning is one of the top quarterbacks returning to college football and that is no longer a projection. Add an improved cast of supporting stars around him and the Longhorn offense should be one of the most feared in the country. Manning will be throwing to the likes of Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo while surrounded in the backfield by Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown. Oh, and the offensive line should be much better, anchored by tackles Trevor Goosby and Wake Forest transfer Melvin Siani.  

The biggest unknown is on defense after head coach Steve Sarkisian replaced defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski with Will Muschamp. Texas also lost LB Anthony Hill Jr. and safety Michael Taaffe. Playmakers such as DE Colin Simmons, LB Rasheem Biles, and DB Jelani McDonald give the Horns stars at each level of the defense. 

2. Texas Tech’s schedule 

If you thought Texas Tech’s 2025 schedule was a cakewalk, wait until you dig into the 2026 slate. The Red Raiders face Abilene Christian, Oregon State, and Sam Houston in non-conference play. The Big 12 schedule doesn’t include BYU or Utah. The road games are against Colorado, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, and Baylor. Three of those four teams finished 2025 with a losing record. Tech does host Houston, which won 10 games last year, as well as both Arizona schools and TCU, but this is about as easy a road back to the Big 12 Championship game as the Red Raiders can ask for. 

Texas Tech has entered Clemson in the 2010s territory in terms of conference domination. The question on people’s minds isn’t whether the Red Raiders repeat as Big 12 champs, it is whether they’re equipped to compete on the national stage. The shutout loss to Oregon in the Orange Bowl reinforced outsider opinions that the Big 12 isn’t on the same footing as the top teams in the other three P4 conferences. Tech should be provided ample opportunities to upend that narrative, just like Clemson did when it owned the ACC and eventually broke through the glass ceiling and began competing for national championships. 

3. Texas A&M’s road back to the College Football Playoff 

How much of Texas A&M’s success last season was owed to a friendly schedule? That’s the question on everyone’s mind who is beginning to project the Aggies into 2026. Mike Elko’s program was 10-0 against teams that finished the season ranked outside of the Top 25 compared to 1-2 against ranked teams. Four of their five SEC opponents – Auburn, Florida, Arkansas, and LSU – made coaching changes during or after the season because of disappointing 2025 campaigns. The other SEC opponents on the schedule were Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, and Texas. Only the Longhorns were considered a good team on that list and the Aggies lost to them by 10. 

Dig into quarterback Marcel Reed’s numbers and it tells a fascinating story about 2025. In 11 wins, Reed threw for 25 touchdowns to eight interceptions and 250 yards per game. In the two losses to end the season, Reed averaged 208 yards per game through the air while throwing zero touchdowns and four interceptions. Against Power Four competition, Reed only completed 58.6 percent of his passes while throwing 13 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. Compare that to the three games against G5 or FCS teams when he tosses nine touchdowns to only one interception while completing over 63 percent of his passes. 

Texas A&M must improve the run offense and run defense this offseason, but it also needs a big jump from Reed. He improved a ton between 2024 and 2025. A similar jump could put the Aggies back in SEC contention, which would put them back into the CFP mix. 

4. Texas State in the Pac-12 pecking order

The new-look Pac-12 will be the talk of the G6 ranks heading into 2026. The biggest storyline for our purposes is where the Bobcats fit into the pecking order of an eight-team conference. Boise State is perched atop the conference based on recent results and historical relevance as the King of the G5. Washington State and Oregon State are probably next because they’re legacy members of the conference and the general public still sees them as between P4 and G6. But after that, Texas State has a chance to become one of the top name brands in the Pac-12 in Year 1. 

The Bobcats should hit the ground running on the football field and the geographic advantage of being the lone school in the state of Texas also works in their favor. Head coach G.J. Kinne is entering Year 4 with what could be his most talented team, especially on offense. Brad Jackson returns at quarterback, as do star receivers Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. Keeping that trio in San Marcos was the biggest portal win for any G6 school in the country. The big move on the defensive side of the ball was the hiring of new coordinator Will Windham. 

What is success for Texas State in 2026? We think it is simple – compete for a spot in the conference championship game. By being in the mix during November, Texas State would offer proof that the move was the right one and that the Bobcats are on the doorstep of something special. Think of what SMU did in the ACC during the 2024 season – first impressions matter. 

5. Houston as a trendy Big 12 pick 

The favorites in the Big 12 are clear – Texas Tech and BYU. After that, the conference is its typical crapshoot. Last year, Baylor emerged as the trendy dark horse pick in the Big 12 out of Texas. This year, it might be Willie Fritz’s Coogs. Houston experienced the “Fritz Year 2 Bump” and rode that to a 10-win season that culminated with a victory over LSU in the Texas Bowl in front of a huge local crowd. 

There is plenty to like about Houston heading into 2026. Fritz is back, as are both of his coordinators and starting QB Conner Weigman. The Cougars quietly added one of the best portal classes in the Big 12 and avoided the catastrophic losses that plagued the 2025 offseason when A.J. Haulcy and Jeremiah Wilson left. Arizona State lost its quarterback to LSU. Texas Tech took Cincinnati’s. Iowa State lost its entire team to Penn State. Utah also lost its head coach. So, why can’t the Cougars reach Arlington?  

But as we mentioned with Texas A&M, Houston wasn’t without some schedule luck. Houston didn’t play BYU, Utah, Iowa State, or Kansas State last year, which were four of the top eight teams in the conference. The best wins on the schedule were against Arizona and Arizona State and that Sun Devils team was without their starting quarterback. The road is tougher this year. Houston’s Big 12 trips are to Texas Tech, Kansas State, Utah, Colorado, and West Virginia – all notoriously hard places for road teams.