The regular season is over in college football and the state of Texas stands as the epicenter of the sport in 2025. Texas A&M and Texas Tech are virtual locks to reach the College Football Playoff. North Texas can do the same with a win over Tulane in the American Conference championship on Friday night. The Longhorns made a final case to the committee with a win over Texas A&M – it’s third against a Top 15 team this season. SMU dropped the ball in the ACC race, but 10 of the 13 FBS squads in the state are headed to the postseason. 

Here are our 10 thoughts from Week 14. 

Don’t expect the Longhorns to reach the CFP 

The politicking began as soon as the final whistle blew in Texas’ 27-17 win over Texas A&M on Black Friday. Steve Sarkisian believes that his Longhorns deserve a third straight trip to the College Football Playoffs and he brought receipts to the postgame interview before he walked off the field with a signature win at DKR. 

He reminded the nation after the win that his Longhorns are the first team since 2019 LSU to beat three top 10 teams in the regular season and that they’ve played three of the current top four teams in the country. He also pointed out that Texas has the fifth-hardest strength of schedule and outgained Ohio State by 200 yards in the road loss to start the season. 

“I think we’re absolutely a playoff team,” Sarkisian said. 

But we don’t think the Horns will make the cut. The Big Ten will get at least three in the CFP with Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon. The SEC will send Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M. There are three other conference champions guaranteed an auto-bid. That leaves one spot for teams like Miami, BYU, Vanderbilt, and Texas. The Longhorns will say scheduling Ohio State doomed them, but really it is the Florida loss and the margin of defeat against Georgia. Beat the Gators or only loss to the Bulldogs by a touchdown and the case for Texas is more realistic. 

Silver lining for Texas A&M 

Texas A&M entered the game 11-0 and ranked third in the CFP. The loss won’t drop the Aggies past No. 8 and that means Kyle Field will be home to a first-round playoff game. Conference championships don’t carry the same weight as they used to, but Texas A&M is one of the few programs left in the SEC or Big Ten that would’ve preferred to play in the conference championship rather than taking next week off in favor of a home game in the first round. Losing to your rival is never fun and Elko won’t admit that this loss was a blessing in disguise, but if we’re only talking about the Aggies’ chances to make a run in the CFP, this result gives them the best shot. 

All four teams with a bye into the quarterfinals lost last season in the first edition of the 12-team playoff. That included Oregon, who won the Big Ten in its first year in the conference but no one cared because the Ducks were blown out by Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Whether Texas A&M won or lost against Texas, Elko’s squad was playing a game before the quarterfinals. Why waste those 60 minutes on a mostly meaningless conference championship game? I’d much rather get the break on Dec. 6 and focus completely on the playoff. Maybe that stinks and is a sign of the erosion of what matters in college football, but the 12-team playoff has become the only real measuring stick. 

Texas Tech in line for CFP bye 

The Red Raiders should be in the CFP regardless of what happens in Arlington during the Big 12 Championship game. Win and Texas Tech is in line for a bye to the quarterfinals thanks to Texas A&M’s loss to Texas on Black Friday. Even with a loss, Tech should back into the field and play a first-round game on the road at a place like Texas A&M, Ole Miss, or Oregon. The sheer dominance throughout the season – all of their wins are by at least three possessions – and the fact that a loss in the Big 12 Championship game would be to a team that the Red Raiders already beat once would prevent them from falling completely out of the mix in favor of a Vanderbilt or Texas. 

SMU drops the ball 

The Rhett Lashlee era on the Hilltop has been defined by big wins in November. The 2025 season was the outlier, as the Mustangs fell on the road to Cal in the final minute of the game to blow any chance of returning to the ACC Championship game and the CFP. They allowed 452 yards in the loss, including 330 through the air. SMU also committed nine penalties for 94 yards and missed a field goal in a three-point road loss. 

SMU was 14-1 in November under Lashlee and 22-1 in conference play since the start of 2022 before the loss at Cal. It was the third loss as a favorite this year for the Ponies, who also lost to Baylor and Wake Forest in unexpected fashion. The Mustangs didn’t have the same type of talent on the defensive side of the ball as they did in the 2024 run and that showed up in the Baylor and Cal losses. The secondary needs an influx of talent and they’ll need to find some defensive linemen in the portal next month. 

How bout them Coogs? 

Houston won four games in 2023 and in 2024 as the expectations for Year 2 of the Willie Fritz era were tampered heading into 2025 for obvious reasons. The Cougars fired their offensive coordinator and had the defensive coordinator poached by Texas Tech. They also needed to overhaul the entire offense and were forced to replace their best two defensive backs after spring ball. The goal, at least on the outside, was to reach a bowl. Houston entered the year with a projected 5.5-win total in Vegas, so anything 6-6 or better would’ve confirmed that Fritz in Year 2 truly is magic. 

But the Coogs had bigger plans. Houston started the season 6-1 and were flirting with Big 12 contention late into the season. A bad loss to WVU was the lone wart because defeats to Texas Tech and TCU were understandable. And when the dust settled on the regular season, Houston had nine wins and a chance to reach double digits with a victory in the upcoming bowl game. We called Fritz “Novocain” because he always gets the job done with enough patience, but he’s further ahead of schedule than anyone could’ve predicted. No one knows if coaching hires will work out when they’re made, but the 2025 season proved that Houston made the right call with Fritz. 

Wheels off in Waco 

Dave Aranda was retained by Baylor because Mack Rhoades was forced out as athletic director late in the season and because the Bears had a solid recruiting class committed that could help turn the tide in Waco. Well, after Baylor fell to Houston and locked up its third losing season in four years and the fourth overall in the six-year tenure of Aranda, some of those marquee commits are beginning to jump ship. Four-star edge Jamarion Carlton flipped to Texas after watching the Longhorns beat Texas A&M and then four-star cornerback Jamarion Vincent flipped to Michigan on Sunday. Both are local products with Carlton at Temple and Vincent at Connally. 

It is impossible to sell the Baylor fan base on anything positive on the football side of things and the new AD has a big first year ahead of him or her because something needs to be done about the trajectory of the program. TCU went to a national championship game in 2022. SMU went to the CFP in 2023. Texas Tech is headed there in 2025. Houston just won nine games. Baylor’s peers in the Lone Star State are passing the Bears up and they have a year to decide if they want to go all-in on football or become a basketball school.  

The sky isn’t falling in Fort Worth

Peruse social media and Frog fans would have you believe that TCU suffered a terrible season that requires wholesale changes. But with a two-game winning streak to close the season puts the Horned Frogs at eight wins and with a chance to hit the nine-win mark for the second straight year. Sonny Dykes went 5-7 in 2023. In the other three years, he’s a combined 30-10. That’s not bad for a program that was a combined 23-24 in the four seasons prior to his arrival. 

Things aren’t perfect in Fort Worth, to be clear. We expect Dykes to make a few changes on his staff, most notably on offense and maybe even in the strength and conditioning department. Where the Frogs struggle is with physicality and a killer instinct. They haven’t run the ball well under Kendal Briles and they’ve become known for letting late leads slip away. Still, beating Houston and Cincinnati to close the season is a good accomplishment and the idea that Dykes would be on the hot seat is asinine for anyone without purple-tinted glasses. 

North Texas looks focused 

There was a worry that Eric Morris’ decision to take the Oklahoma State job would derail the 2025 season for the Mean Green. If the 52-25 thumping of Temple to guarantee a spot in the American Conference Championship game was any indication, that shouldn’t be a concern in Denton, America. Drew Mestemaker threw for 366 yards and three touchdowns with Wyatt Young and Cameron Dorner both topping the 100-yard mark as receivers. Caleb Hawkins ran for 186 yards and four touchdowns to give him North Texas’ record for rushing touchdowns in a season with 23, breaking his position coach Patrick Cobbs’ record. The defense forced a turnover and held the Owls to seven points in the first half. 

North Texas travels to Tulane on Friday night for the AC championship and a spot in the CFP on the line. Both head coaches are on their way out with news that Tulane head coach John Sumrall is accepting the head coaching job at Florida after the season. This is life in the G5. The coaches and players are always looking for the next opportunity and the P4 ranks offer more money and prestige. But that shouldn’t ruin the joy for Mean Green fans in 2025. This season will be talked about for decades. Beat Tulane and reach the CFP and it might be talked about for as long as North Texas plays football. 

Texas State punches bowl ticket 

The Bobcats looked dead in the water during their five-game losing streak to start Sun Belt play. At 3-6 and out of the conference race by November, it would’ve been easy for G.J. Kinne & Co. to close up shop and punt to the offseason. Instead, Texas State won three straight to finish the season and will reach the postseason for the third straight year under Kinne after not qualifying for a bowl game as an FBS program before his arrival. That’s a positive sign for Texas State even if this season was disappointing. The defense turned it around and quarterback Brad Jackson is a building piece if the Bobcats can keep him and some of his weapons, namely Beau Sparks, on the roster.

Army owns UTSA 

Jeff Traylor has lost five home games in six years as head coach at UTSA and three of those are to Army. He’s joked in the offseason that it is because Army is the only team that San Antonio roots for as hard as his Roadrunners considering the military background of so many in the Alamo City. UTSA has now finished the last two regular seasons at 6-6 and look a long way from competing for conference championships. 

Roadrunner fans became spoiled with 30 wins and two conference championships over three seasons from 2021-23 and the expectations are probably outsized in San Antonio, but the regression can’t be completely chalked up to a lack of resources. It isn’t losses to South Florida that infuriate the fan base, it is the defeats to Temple and Army this season and Tulsa and Rice last year. How can a team that can beat up Memphis or Tulane or East Carolina look so average against average competition? There are some big decisions waiting for Traylor in the offseason.