Steve Sarkisian was hired by Texas to return the Longhorns to national prominence. The Longhorns hadn’t won a conference championship since 2009 and had only posted one 10-win season since Colt McCoy was injured in the Rose Bowl against Alabama that same year.

He’s done exactly that, leading the Horns to 25 wins, two conference championship games in two separate conferences, and to the College Football Playoff semifinals in consecutive seasons.

But that’s not enough. Sark knows it. So do the players on the roster. At Texas, the standards are measured by championships. Something this program hasn’t achieved since 2005. Before that, it was 1970. Texas is trending in the right direction, however, and the team enters 2025 as one of the betting favorites to win the second iteration of the 12-team CFP. 

“My goal is to retire here and I’m 51 today, and I hope I can coach a long, long time,” Sarkisian said in the spring. “But the only way to do that is to have continued success because here the standard is the standard. You either compete and win championships or you don’t. There’s not a lot of grey area.”

The Texas brand never lost its luster. It was the on-field product that lost its shine.

Beyond the wins and losses, it was the NFL Draft that best illustrated the Longhorns’ fall from grace. Only one Longhorn was drafted in 2016 and 2017. No more than four were picked between 2018-2020. The last first round draft pick from the Forty Acres prior to Sark’s arrival was Malcom Brown in 2015 and he was the last pick of the round.

Just like the on-field results, the tide has turned in Austin. Five players, including Bijan Robinson with the eighth pick overall, were drafted in 2023. Over the last two seasons, no team in the country has produced more NFL draft picks than the 23 developed by Texas. The 12 picks in the recent 2025 draft were the school record for most in a seven-round draft.

“That says a lot about the work these guys have poured into building our program and the trajectory of where we’re headed because of these guys,” Sarkisian said about the run of NFL draft picks over the last two seasons. “This group of guys went to back-to-back college football playoff semifinals, led us to Top 5 rankings the last two years, won the Big 12, were in the SEC Championship game in overtime – things that hadn’t been done at Texas for a long time.”

A new herd of Horns must lead Texas over the next hurdle. They ranked 103rd nationally in returning production entering the spring with only 45% returning. Offensively, the Longhorns only return 29% of its production from last year, which was 126th in the FBS ranks. The defense checked in at 44th in the country with 61% of its production back from 2024.

A change of the guard doesn’t represent a rebuilding year for the Longhorns, however. Quite the opposite. The Arch Manning era begins on the Forty Acres this fall and the first game of the season is a trip to Ohio State to face the defending national champion Buckeyes, the team that ended Texas’ 2024 season. Sarkisian & Co. have signed four straight Top 5 recruiting classes and are one of the best staffs in the business at utilizing the transfer portal to supplement need positions.

“When I got here, I didn’t want to be a one-hit wonder,” Sarkisian said. “I didn’t want to live in the portal – one year we’re good and the next year we’re not. I want to win a national championship. There’s no question about it, but the fact that we went from 5-7 to 8-5 to the semifinals two years in a row lends itself to the consistency of our program and the foundation of our program.” 

DCTF Take

Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns try to reach the College Football Playoff for the third year in a row after consecutive losses in the semifinal round. Texas must replace Quinn Ewers, four starters on the offensive line and a pair of key defensive tackles in Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton. Sarkisian has put together one of the deepest and most talented rosters in America, however. The return of C.J. Baxter at running back and defensive stars such as linebacker Anthony Hill Jr., Michael Taaffe, and Colin Simmons give the Horns a chance at the SEC title. Arch Madness will dominate the headlines.

 

Offensive Breakdown

The Arch Manning era begins on the Forty Acres as the highly touted redshirt freshman enters 2025 as the face of the Texas offense. He’s appeared in nine games and is 2-0 as a starter with wins over ULM and Mississippi State. Manning completed 61 of 90 passes for 939 yards and nine touchdowns to just two interceptions last year. He also added 108 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.

“I think there’s something that’s unique about Arch,” Sarkisian said in the spring. “When you watch him throw, the arm talent and deep ball is there. Then you watch him move and you’re like, wait, this guy’s a better athlete than I thought. (He) definitely got grandpa’s genes. It’s not the uncles’, he’s got grandpa’s genes.”

Manning won’t be the only new face the Horns need to step up in 2025. Texas returns only 29% of its offensive production, which ranks 126th out of 136 in the FBS ranks. The unit loses its top two receivers in tight end Gunnar Helm and wide receiver Matthew Golden. Isaiah Bond and Silas Bolden are also gone. As are four of last year’s starting offensive linemen, including All-American left tackle Kelvin Banks and long-time starting center Jake Majors.

Texas didn’t raid the transfer portal for replacements on offense, however, as Sarkisian bets on his program’s recruitment and development. Not a single player in the projected two-deep exiting spring was added through the portal. Texas believes wide receivers DeAndre Moore and Ryan Wingo can lead the wide receiver room. Redshirt freshman Parker Livingstone earned rave reviews from Sarkisian and his teammates throughout the spring. The Horns also signed a talented true freshman crop of receivers that includes Kaliq Lockett and Jaime Ffrench.

Texas added Cal transfer tight end Jack Endries through the portal after spring ball. He caught 56 passes for 623 yards and two scores last year and will help the Longhorns replace Gunnar Helm’s production. The rest of the tight end room consists of young, promising prospects like Jordan Washington, Spencer Shannon, and Emaree Winston.

Right guard DJ Campbell is the only returning starter along the offensive line. Trevor Goosby is expected to replace Banks at left tackle. He was impressive as a redshirt freshman late in the season when he picked up a couple of starts for the injured Cam Williams. Sophomore Brandon Baker should slide into the starting spot at right tackle. Senior Cole Hutson is the favorite at center with Neto Umeozulu at left guard.

“The emergence of some new faces is going to be good,” Sarkisian said about his offensive line. “These guys were all high-level recruits, and now it’s their time, and that’s okay.” 

The deepest and most proven position unit on the offense is at running back. The only real loss was Jaydon Blue. Tre Wisner emerged as the No. 1 running back in the second half of last season and continued Sarkisian’s streak of fielding 1,000-yard rushers. The return of a healthy C.J. Baxter, who was the expected starter in 2024 before a preseason injury ended his campaign, bolsters the room. He was a five-star recruit out of high school. Sophomore Jerrick Gibson and redshirt freshman Christian Clark will also contribute in their second years on campus. 

Breakout Candidates

RB Jerrick Gibson – Gibson was third on the team in rushing attempts, yards, and touchdowns in his true freshman season while averaging 4.8 yards per carry. He’ll fight for scraps behind the returning C.J. Baxter, who missed last season due to an injury, and Tre Wisner, who eclipsed 1,000 yards on the ground in a breakout campaign.

WR Emmett Mosley V – Mosley was a transfer portal addition in the spring window who caught 48 passes for 525 yards and six touchdowns as a true freshman at Stanford. He recorded 13 catches for 168 yards and three scores in a win over Louisville on Nov. 16. He was listed at 6-foot-2, 205 pounds.

Projected Starters

QB          16            Arch Manning Soph.   6-4, 225               New Orleans, La.         

RB           4               CJ Baxter            Soph.   6-1, 230               Orlando, Fla. 

WR         1               Ryan Wingo      Soph.   6-2, 210               St. Louis, Mo.

WR         0               DeAndre Moore Jr.       Jr.             6-0, 195               Anaheim, Calif.             

WR         13            Parker Livingstone       RS-Fr. 6-4, 195               Lucas Lovejoy                 

TE            X               Jack Endries                      Jr.             6-4, 240               Danville, Calif.                                  

LT            74            Trevor Goosby                 Soph.   6-7, 315               Melissa

LG           72            Neto Umeozulu              Jr.             6-4, 330               Allen

C              54            Cole Hutson    Sr.           6-5, 310               Frisco

RG          52            DJ Campbell   Sr.           6-3, 330               Arlington Bowie

RT            73            Brandon Baker                Soph.   6-4, 315               Ontario, Calif.

K               X               Mason Shipley                 Sr.           6-0, 185               Liberty Hill

 

Keep an Eye On

Texas struggled to convert red-zone trips into touchdowns consistently over the last two years. The Horns ranked 54th nationally last year in red-zone touchdown percentage at 63.77%, which was an improvement from 2024 when they were 120th in the FBS ranks with a touchdown on just over half of their red-zone trips. The return of running back C.J. Baxter and Arch Manning at quarterback should provide Texas with more bulk in the backfield to excel in those situations. Baxter weighs over 230 pounds and Manning is listed at 6-foot-4, 222 pounds.

 

By the Numbers

33 – Points per game scored by the Longhorns, which ranked 29th in the FBS last season. That was down 2.8 points from 2023 when Texas was 15th. 

37 – That’s the number of sacks allowed by Texas last season, which was 118th in the country. No team allowed more tackles for loss than the Longhorns’ 114. 

63.77 – That’s the touchdown percentage for the Texas offense when it reached the red zone in 2024, which was up from 50.82 percent in 2023.

 

Defensive Breakdown 

The Texas defense must replace a pair of elite defensive tackles for the third year in a row. The Horns lost T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy after 2023 and Keondre Coburn and Moro Ojomo after 2022. This year, it is Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton who headed to the NFL after long and successful seasons on the Forty Acres.

Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski weathered the storm when Sweat and Murphy departed and head coach Steve Sarkisian feels the 2025 unit will once again be one of the best defenses in the SEC. The group ranked third in scoring defense, 13th in rushing defense, and seventh in passing defense a year ago.

“We have some real players on the defensive side of the ball, to where I don’t think Arch is ever going to have to go into a game thinking we have to outscore ‘em,” Sarkisian said in the spring. “It’s not going to feel like the weight of the world where if we don’t score 40, we’re in trouble.”

Texas returns a trio of gamebreakers at defensive end with Colin Simmons, Trey Moore, and Ethan Burke returning. Simmons won the Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Year Award after leading the Horns with nine sacks, which was the third most in a single season by a freshman at Texas. He also recorded 14 tackles for loss. Moore grew into Power Four football in his first year after transferring from UTSA, racking up 10.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks in 15 games.

The linebacker core also features future NFL talent, headlined by Anthony Hill Jr. The junior from Denton Ryan enters his third year on campus as arguably the best linebacker in the country and the best defensive player in Texas. He’s already started 22 games in his career. Hill led Texas with 107 tackles and 16 tackles for loss last year. Liona Lefau and transfer Brad Spence bolster the position room.

“One thing Anthony has proven over two years is his playmaking ability with the sacks, the forced fumbles, the interceptions, the big hits,” Sarkisian said. “What I’ve admired about him this spring is the level of consistency he’s playing at, being where he’s supposed to be when he’s supposed to be there.”

The strength of the Texas defense might be the secondary despite the loss of Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron at cornerback. Junior Malik Muhammad is back and will start at one of the cornerback positions. Former five-star recruit Kobe Black is now a sophomore and ready to be a starter at the other corner spot. Nickel Jaylon Guilbeau could also follow Barron’s lead and transition to cornerback as a senior.

The safety room is loaded with talent. Jelani McDonald could become the starter at Star, which is the nickel position in the Texas defense. He’s played in 23 games over two seasons and was mentioned often by the coaching staff during the spring as a top performer. Michael Taaffe is back to start at free safety. The former walk-on and lifelong Texas fan tallied 78 tackles, including 5.5 TFL and two sacks last year. He also intercepted two passes, including one against Texas A&M. Jordon Johnson-Rubell was the starter at boundary safety in the spring with Derek Williams Jr., expected back from injury over the summer.       

Breakout Candidates

LB Ty’Anthony Smith – The Jasper product played in all 16 games as a true freshman in 2024, mostly on special teams. The 6-1, 220-pound middle linebacker is the heir apparent to Anthony Hill and showed flashes of all-conference potential in extended time against UTSA and Florida, recording nine of his 16 tackles in those two games.

DB Xavier Filsaime  – A McKinney export who ranked seventh overall in-state during a 2024 cycle that included Colin Simmons, Terry Bussey, and DJ Lagway. Filsaime competed in seven games last year, including the Peach Bowl win over Arizona State and the Cotton Bowl loss to Ohio State. He’ll benefit from Duane Akina’s return.

Projected Starters

DE           1               Colin Simmons               Soph.   6-3, 245               Duncanville

NT           99            Cole Brevard   Sr.           6-3, 333               Carmel, Ind.

DT           44            Travis Shaw      Sr.           6-5, 330               Greensboro, N.C.

Buck     8               Trey Moore        Sr.           6-3, 245               Smithson Valley

MLB       0               Anthony Hill Jr.                Jr.            6-3, 235               Denton Ryan

WLB      18            Liona Lefau      Jr.            6-1, 225               Laie, Hawaii

NB          25            Jelani McDonald            Jr.             6-2, 205               Waco Connally

CB          5               Malik Muhammad        Jr.            6-0, 190               South Oak Cliff

CB          6               Kobe Black       Soph.   6-2, 200               Waco Connally

FS            16            Michael Taaffe                Sr.           6-0, 195               Westlake

BS           2              Derek Williams Jr.        Soph.   6-2, 195               New Iberia, La.

P               19            Jack Bouwmeester      Sr.           6-3, 197               Bendigo, Australia

Keep an Eye On

The Longhorns signed five defensive tackles who each weigh over 300 pounds over the two transfer portal windows to help offset the losses of Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton. Cole Brevard (Purdue), Travis Shaw (North Carolina), and Hero Kanu (Ohio State) enrolled in the winter and participated in spring practices. The Horns dipped back into the portal during the spring window for Maraad Watson (Syracuse) and Lavon Johnson (Maryland). Texas has sent six defensive tackles to the NFL over the last three seasons. The only other transfer portal addition on the defensive side of the ball was Arkansas linebacker Brad Spence.

By the Numbers

15.3 – Texas ranked third nationally in scoring defense trailing only national champion Ohio State and Ole Miss while allowing 15.3 points per game. The Horns allowed 18.9 in 2023.

2.88 – The number of sacks for Texas per game last year, which ranked 15th in the FBS. The Horns racked up 46 total sacks – fourth most in the country.

22 – Texas was tied for the national lead with BYU in interceptions last year. Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba accounted for 10 of those.

 

Ceiling

12-0

Why can’t Texas run the table if Arch Manning lives up to his last name? The Horns will be motivated to beat Ohio State and Georgia in 2025 after posting a combined 0-3 record against those two squads last year. They’ll be favored in every other contest thanks to a Top 5 roster in the nation.  

Floor

8-4

The bottom falling out for Texas equates to three or more losses and missing the College Football Playoff for the first time in three years. Road losses at Ohio State, Georgia, and Florida are easy to envision with a first-year starter at quarterback, as is a rivalry game defeat against Oklahoma or Texas A&M.

Coach Gossip

“They’re talented and well coached. To me, they’ve built the team in a way that’s required to be successful in college football. They’ve started up front on both sides of the football and that’s what Texas lacked for a long time. Amazing what hiring a competent coach at a place with unlimited resources can do, huh? You could see it coming if Sarkisian stayed on the straight and narrow.”

“Does Texas have the same type of guys that they had the last two years? You think about the number of not just draft picks but first-, second-round draft picks. Are they reloading enough to do that? And then, is Arch what everybody thinks he is? They’ve lost high draft picks at almost every position on the team the last two years and Arch might not have the talent around him that Quinn had. And those defensive tackles? That’s not easy to replace.”

2024 RESULTS

Aug. 31                 Colorado State               W, 52-0
Sept. 7                  at Michigan      W, 31-12
Sept. 14               UTSA                      W, 56-7
Sept. 21               ULM                        W, 51-3
Sept. 28               Mississippi State          W, 35-13
Oct. 12                 Oklahoma (Dallas)      W, 34-3
Oct. 19                 Georgia                L, 30-15
Oct. 26                 at Vanderbilt   W, 27-24
Nov. 9                    Florida                                    W, 49-17
Nov. 16                 at Arkansas      W, 20-10
Nov. 23                 Kentucky            W, 31-14
Nov. 30                 at Texas A&M  W, 17-7
Dec. 7                    Georgia (SEC Champ.)              L, 22-19 (OT)
Dec. 21                Clemson (CFP)               W, 38-24
Jan. 1                      Arizona State (CFP)    W, 39-31 (2OT)
Jan. 10                  Ohio State (CFP)           L, 28-14

Record: 13-3 (7-1)

 

2025 PREDICTIONS

Aug. 30                 at Ohio State   L

Sept. 6                  San Jose State                 W

Sept. 13               UTEP                      W
Sept. 20               Sam Houston W
Oct. 4                     at Florida            W
Oct. 11                 Oklahoma (Dallas)      W
Oct. 18                 at Kentucky      W
Oct. 25                 at Mississippi State    W
Nov. 1                    Vanderbilt         W
Nov. 15                 at Georgia          L
Nov. 22                 Arkansas            W
Nov. 29                Texas A&M        W
Record: 10-2 (7-1)

Biggest Game

Aug. 30 at Ohio State

Ohio State ended Texas’ 2024 season in the Cotton Bowl during the semifinal round of the College Football Playoff. The defending champion Buckeyes will play host to the Longhorns to start the 2025 season in what should be Arch Manning’s true introduction to the college football world.  

Trap Game

Oct. 4 at Florida

The week before the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma is historically a trap game warning for the Horns. That’s especially true in 2025 when Texas heads to Florida to face super sophomore D.J. Lagway and the Gators in The Swamp seven days before the annual tilt against the Sooners in Dallas.  

Upset Bid

Nov. 15 at Georgia

Texas will be favored in all but two games in the 2025 regular season. One of those underdog moments is against Ohio State in Week 1. The other? On the road against a Georgia squad that beat Texas twice in 2024, including in overtime for the SEC championship.