Texas Tech and TCU are the two best teams in the Big 12 through Week 4. Go argue with the sportsbooks. 

The Red Raiders are now the conference favorite after a season-defining road win at Utah at +280. The Horned Frogs, who now hold wins over Bill Belichick and SMU, are tied with Arizona State for second favorite at +550. Those two play each other Friday night in an important clash. 

Baylor is sixth at +1300 following its three-point loss to the Sun Devils at home on Saturday night. An undefeated Houston squad sits in ninth at +1800. 

The Big 12 runs through Texas. Not just literally considering that the title game is played in Arlington. But figuratively, as well, because the odds suggest at least one of the Texas teams reaches the Big 12 Championship game on Dec. 6. The four Texas programs are a combined 12-2 in 2025. Houston, Texas Tech, and TCU head into Week 5 amongst the 30 remaining undefeated teams in the FBS. 

Joey McGuire’s program created many headlines this offseason because of how much money Texas Tech spent in the portal, on an upgraded facility, and on the coaching staff while hiring a new offensive and defensive coordinator as well as fending off Notre Dame for James Blanchard. Not everyone on the outside was bought into the hype, however. The 2-10 season by Florida State in 2024 was a cautionary tale of what can go wrong on a team full of mercenaries. 

But McGuire’s superpower as a coach is his culture building. It’s what carried his state championship Cedar Hill teams and it’s why Dave Aranda kept him on staff at Baylor after beating him out of the head job in Waco. McGuire knows how to connect with people, most of all his players. Maybe there are better head coaches out there in terms of play-calling or overall schematics, but maybe McGuire is the perfect type of coach for the new era of roster building. 

“We’ve got a good football team and they care a lot about each other,” McGuire said after running away from Utah in the fourth quarter. “There’s a lot of things said about our team and a lot of things written about the cost of the roster and this and that. I would challenge anybody to have a closer locker room, guys that care more about the Double-T than care about themselves, and that shows up in tight games.” 

Texas Tech has all the makings for a Big 12 champion and a scary team to face in the College Football Playoff. The weapons on offense are always good and the Red Raiders seemingly have two quality quarterbacks after Will Hammond’s breakout performance. But what this version of the Red Raiders possesses that those past iterations didn’t is prowess on the lines of scrimmage. Utah is typically the bully. Tech forced the Utes to tap out in Week 4. 

Tech is known for offense. Mike Leach. Kliff Kingsbury. Patrick Mahomes and Graham Harrell. Michael Crabtree and Wes Welker. What it isn’t known for is defense, not since the Spike Dykes days, at least. Texas Tech enters its first idle week as the 14th best scoring defense in the FBS. The unit was 122nd in 2024. As crazy as it sounds, Lubbock might be home to the best defense in the conference. 

Even the Texas Tech doubters knew the Red Raiders could compete for a Big 12 crown if McGuire & Co. put it all together. Not many folks outside of Fort Worth believed TCU was one of the two or three best teams in the league entering the year. The same books listing the Horned Frogs as one of the favorites to reach Arlington had their team total set at 6.5 for 2025. There were times in July and August that a bettor could receive plus points on TCU against North Carolina and SMU. The Frogs beat both teams by double digits.

TCU ranks second in the Big 12 in scoring, trailing only Texas Tech, and quarterback Josh Hoover is the reason for optimism in Funky Town. He’s thrown for over 300 yards in all three games this year, including 379 and five touchdowns in the Iron Skillet win over SMU. Wide receiver Eric McAlister caught eight of those passes for 254 yards and three touchdowns in the game. 

Even if Houston and Baylor don’t reach Arlington, those two teams will get plenty of chances to help determine who does. The Cougars host Texas Tech in two weeks and TCU in late November. They travel to Arizona State on Oct. 25. Our money is on Willie Fritz’s bunch finding a way to win at least one of those three games. Baylor heads to TCU on Oct. 18. 

There are 32 teams that claim shared or full Big 12 championships since 1996. Twenty-one of those teams – Oklahoma (14), Texas (4), Nebraska (2), Texas A&M (1) – represent schools that are no longer in the conference. That leaves only six programs remaining with a claim to a Big 12 title and Baylor is one of only three teams with multiple championships, joining Kansas State and Colorado. 

A power vacuum exists without Oklahoma and Texas and the programs inside the Lone Star State can fill it because of an advantage in resources. Fans say they want parity but conference reputations are built by the high-end programs, not competitive depth. The SEC hangs its hat on Alabama and Georgia’s accomplishments, not on Kentucky’s or Mississippi State’s. Same with the Big Ten and Ohio State and Michigan. The ACC is considered by many as the third-best conference in America but that’s only because of Clemson, Miami, and Florida State. 

The Big 12 needs a Tier 1. A villain. Two or three teams to drive the national narrative. Maybe that’s Texas Tech. Maybe it becomes a program in a hotbed of talent like Houston or TCU. If the start of the 2025 season is an indicator, the best bet for the next Big 12 superpower is in this state.