Five of the 13 FBS programs in Texas have reached the College Football Playoff since 2022. TCU was the first, knocking off Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl in 2022 before falling in a blowout loss to Georgia in the national championship game. The Texas Longhorns reached the semifinals in 2023 and 2024 and remain the only program with multiple appearances in the CFP. SMU cashed in quickly as a Power Four program, reaching the CFP and the ACC Championship game in 2024, while Texas Tech and Texas A&M made the 12-team field in 2025. 

That leaves only Baylor and Houston without a CFP appearance within the P4 ranks here in Texas, though the Bears would’ve qualified in 2021 had the 12-team field existed back then. Houston has only been in the Big 12 for three seasons. And then there are the six teams from the Lone Star State in the G6, including the trio of Texas State, North Texas, and UTSA. The Mean Green were one win away from reaching the CFP in 2025. Texas State is now in the Pac-12 and UTSA was a dominant program from 2021-23. 

So, which will be the next team from Texas to make the 12-team field? We rank the five most likely contenders below. 

1. Houston Cougars 

Location and the competency of head coach Willie Fritz puts the Cougars atop the list to crash the CFP party over the next few years, especially with five-star quarterback Keisean Henderson in the mix. Winning at the highest levels requires talent, and Houston is perfectly situated to stack star players from the high school ranks and through the transfer portal by bringing hometown exports back home, just like SMU does in Dallas. Fritz is a proven winner, illustrated by the 10-win season in Year 2, and as long as he’s in Third Ward, the Coogs have a chance to punch above their weight class and win a Big 12 title over the next two or three years. And that’s all it takes in the current 12-team format. 

2. Baylor Bears 

The Bears have reached a Big 12 Championship game at least once under its last three coaches, including outright conference titles in 2013 under Art Briles and 2021 with Dave Aranda in charge. Matt Rhule also reached a Big 12 title game. That’s more recent success at the Power Four level than Houston so we understand if Baylor fans feel like their school is the next team to reach the CFP. But losing seasons in three of the last four under Aranda have cooled the stock in Waco and the Bears must figure out how to regain the momentum they had from 2013-2021. Like Houston, all it takes is winning the Big 12 and Texas Tech proved that buy-in from donors and stability at head coach can provide a Golden Ticket into college football’s elite. Baylor has proven it can catch lightning in a bottle before.   

3. North Texas Mean Green 

The Mean Green came closer than any G6 program in the state when they reached the American Conference Championship game last year before losing to Tulane. North Texas holds a couple of advantages over its peers in the state because of location and resources. Denton offers new head coach Neal Brown the same advantages provided to TCU and SMU. He can recruit the high school ranks in the Metroplex while bringing home talent from the transfer portal. Facilities such as the indoor practice field is also an advantage over other G6 programs like Texas State and UTSA. Brown proved he can win conference championships at this level when he was at Troy and he’ll be able to put together one of the best rosters in the American after another cycle or two. 

4. Texas State Bobcats 

We think North Texas holds an edge overall because of location and facilities, but if a program from the G6 breaks through in 2026 or 2027, it is likely Texas State. The Bobcats are now in the Pac-12 and the automatic CFP spot for the G6 likely comes down to the champion of the Pac-12 or the American in most years. That’s why we don’t see Sam Houston or UTEP holding much of a shot. The 2026 version of the Bobcats could mirror what North Texas pulled off last year. Texas State should possess one of the top offenses in the G6 because of QB Brad Jackson and WRs Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. And like North Texas last year, head coach G.J. Kinne handed the defensive keys over to a proven coordinator who could help provide balance for its high-octane offense. 

5. UTSA Roadrunners 

The Roadrunners ruled the G6 landscape in this state for much of Jeff Traylor’s tenure, but back-to-back 6-6 finishes in the regular season provide legitimate concerns about the program’s current upside. San Antonio isn’t a hotbed of recruiting talent at the moment, at least not compared to DFW or Houston and might’ve been passed up by the Austin area. And as Traylor likes to point out, the Roadrunners can’t currently keep up with the spending at the top of the American Conference. Still, UTSA has been the most consistent G6 program in Texas and proved it can compete in the AC with a nine-win season in 2023 and has wins over Memphis in 2024 and Tulane in 2025 to prove that the Roadrunners can still beat anyone in the conference.