Week 13 served as the table setter for a high stakes weekend of action down the stretch. Five teams from the Lone Star State have playoff aspirations and four control their own destiny. Texas A&M is a lock and can clinch its first SEC Championship game berth with a win over Texas on Black Friday. SMU now controls its ACC championship destiny after launching Louisville into the sun and getting help from Pitt in a win over Georgia Tech. Texas Tech is the favorite in the Big 12 and North Texas is the betting favorite to win the American and receive the G5 bid. 

Week 13 also provided some important results for teams in bowl contention as UTSA continued to dominate conference opponents in the Alamodome and Texas State allowed 14 points in its second straight win to keep postseason hopes alive. The state of Texas is the capital of college football so far in 2025 and here are my 10 thoughts on another impressive weekend inside the borders. 

SMU controls ACC destiny 

SMU’s win over Louisville combined with Georgia Tech’s loss to Pitt means that the only thing the Mustangs need to do to reach a second straight ACC Championship game is to beat Cal in Week 14. They’ve won five of the last six with quarterback Kevin Jennings throwing for over 300 yards in three straight games. SMU is peaking at the right time, which shouldn’t be a surprise on the Hilltop. Rhett Lashlee is now 14-1 in November as a head coach and the Ponies are 22-1 in conference play since the start of 2022. They won the American Conference on the way out the door and played for the ACC championship last season. 

The reason so many programs fought against SMU returning to power conference football has become painfully obvious over the last two years. SMU won 10+ games from 1981-1984 until the hammer was brought down by the NCAA and then Mustangs were left for dead when the Southwest Conference dissolved in 1995. They toiled away in the WAC, CUSA, and the American before ponying up and buying their way back into Power Conference football. They’ve hit the ground running and immediately cashed in on the bet. SMU has won 11 games in back-to-back seasons and could reach double-digit wins again if the Ponies beat Cal and then win the ACC. That would also punch another ticket to the CFP.  

Mean Green Statement 

North Texas proved why it should be the highest-ranked G5 team in America heading into Week 14 after demolishing Rice on the road, 56-24. The Mean Green trailed 14-0 with 1:42 left in the first quarter before scoring 42 straight until the Owls scored on the final play of the third quarter. The three-headed monster of quarterback Drew Mestemaker, running back Caleb Hawkins, and wide receiver Wyatt Young dazzled on South Main. Mestemaker threw for 469 yards and three touchdowns with 295 of those yards and two touchdowns going to Young. Hawkins scored three rushing touchdowns to reach 21 total scores as a true freshman. 

The CFP committee ranked Tulane last week, signaling that the winner of the American is likely the G5 representative in the playoffs. North Texas will play Tulane for the championship if both win in Week 14. For North Texas, that’s a home against Temple and former Sam Houston head coach K.C. Keeler, who was North Texas defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity’s boss last season. James Madison struggled to beat a Washington State squad that was trounced by UNT earlier in the season, which should close the door on any talk of the Sun Belt champion receiving an auto-bid to the playoffs. 

That makes things simple for North Texas. Beat Temple and then Tulane in the AC Championship game and the Mean Green will be the 12-seed in the CFP. 

Baylor Blues 

Baylor University president Linda Livingstone announced that the Bears were retaining head coach Dave Aranda for the 2026 season. The road game against Arizona was a chance for Aranda & Co. to clinch bowl eligibility and build some goodwill with a reeling fan base. Instead, the Bears were outscored 20-0 in the fourth quarter to lose their fourth in the last five. Baylor must beat Houston at home next week to reach the postseason and have any chance to avoid a sub-.500 record third time in the last four seasons.

It was Baylor’s offense that failed down the stretch. The Bears scored on three of their first four drives and then didn’t register a single point in the second half. Their drive chart to end the game was interception, fumble, turnover on downs, interception, turnover on downs. That sunk a Baylor defense that allowed points on five of Arizona’s 10 drives. Baylor can’t win games when its offense isn’t excellent and that was proven again on Saturday. 

This will be a toxic offseason in Waco if Baylor doesn’t find a way to beat Houston and finish 6-6 in the regular season. And it is hard to blame the fan base for mostly checking out and not backing the administration’s decision to keep Aranda. The fact is he’s not the head coach if athletic director Mack Rhoades’ actions don’t lead to him resigning as athletic director last week. The thought of hiring a new AD and a head football coach was too much for the Baylor brass. 

Kicking issues could cost Texas A&M 

The 48-0 win over Samford served as a pseudo-open week for the Aggies as they prepare to face Texas on Black Friday with a chance to reach the SEC Championship game for the first time in program history. There wasn’t much to nitpick from the win, but a missed field goal in the second quarter does reveal a growing concern in Aggieland. For everything that Mike Elko’s squad does well, the place-kicking situation might be their undoing in close games down the road. 

Jared Zirkel took over duties for Randy Bond and missed his first attempt since the Utah State game in the second quarter against Samford. He made a 25- and 39-yard field goal after that, but it clear that Elko & Co. aren’t comfortable at the position as they’ve rotated kickers a few times now this season. The Aggies are now 14-of-22 on field goals this season and have missed at least one in six of their 11 games. It hasn’t mattered yet, but college football does an eerie job of testing a team’s scars in big moments. 

Golden Arch 

The Arch Manning on display in the 52-37 win over Arkansas is the one many expected heading into the season. He threw for 389 yards and four touchdowns through the air while adding another score on the ground and as a receiver to become the first player in Longhorn history to hit for the cycle. The vertical passing game Texas fans hoped Manning would provide was in full effect, as he averaged over 21 yards a completion and registered 11 completions over 15 yards. The Horns were 66th nationally in pass plays over 20 yards with 32 in 10 games entering Week 13. 

Much of Texas’ 2025 campaign has centered on Manning and if he’ll live up to his enormous hype. But Texas can win big with him at quarterback, even if he isn’t a future No. 1 NFL draft pick. He’s not the issue on The Forty Acres. If Texas doesn’t reach the CFP for the first time since 2022, it’ll be because of the offensive pieces around Manning. If the Longhorns add weapons around Manning, solidify the offensive line, and find an explosive running back, they’ll make a push for the championship in 2026. 

Frogs win a funky one at Houston 

The Horned Frogs won on the road against Houston despite turning the ball over four times and committing seven penalties, including one that erased a touchdown in the third quarter. The offense scored three points in the final three quarters. It was an ugly performance, but TCU doesn’t need to apologize for winning conference games on the road. After all, they don’t ask you how, they ask you how many. 

TCU’s season feels like a disappointment in Fort Worth, but the team win projection in Las Vegas was 6.5 and the Frogs are now 7-4 on the season with a winnable game at home against Cincinnati in the regular season finale. An eight-win season should provide momentum for the Frogs. Win the bowl game and that’d be consecutive nine-win seasons for Sonny Dykes & Co. There needs to be some changes – notably a change at offensive coordinator – but the sky isn’t falling in the way online discourse suggests. 

Houston crashes to earth 

The Cougars started the season 7-1 with its lone loss occurring against Big 12 favorite Texas Tech. But since the signature road win against defending Big 12 champion Arizona State, Houston has come back to earth. The 17-14 home loss to TCU was the second defeat in the last three games and both were as favorites. All three of Houston’s loss came at home, as well. 

The Cougars defense forced four turnovers and a late turnover on downs inside the red zone to give the offense one last opportunity. A long run by Conner Weigman set up Houston for a field goal attempt, but the normally reliable Ethan Sanchez missed it. TCU did a great job taking away tight end Tanner Koziol and the Coogs don’t have enough weapons around Weigman to overcome one of their man guys disappearing. Both touchdown drives came off turnovers. 

Right now, Houston’s offense is Weigman, Dean Conners, Amare Thomas, and Koziol. The injury to Stephon Johnson has loomed large for the offense. They need a few guys to step up around those four to alleviate some pressure. 

Heartbreak in El Paso 

UTEP seemingly finds new ways to lose nearly every week in Conference USA play. In the latest Battle of I-10 against rival New Mexico State, the Miners blew a 21-point first quarter lead and then a four-point lead with 56 seconds left at home to lose their fourth straight. They’re now 0-3 in one-score games in 2025 and 2-6 in such games under second-year head coach Scotty Walden. 

The 2025 season was supposed to be a springboard into a new reality for UTEP football. The program finally got the Mountain West invite it craved for years and the Miners entered the season with bowl aspirations. The loss to NMSU drops them to 2-9 on the season with a trip to Delaware remaining. Instead of taking a step forward, it feels like UTEP has taken a step back. They’ll be road dogs to the Blue Hens and are in danger of winning fewer than three games for the first time since 2019. 

Roadrunners? More like Homerunners, am I right? 

UTSA’s magic at home under Jeff Traylor needs to be studied. He’s now 33-4 in the Alamodome and 25-0 against conference foes at home in six years at UTSA. The 58-24 drubbing of East Carolina was the second straight home win over an American Conference contender. The Roadrunners led 34-3 at halftime as Owen McCown threw five touchdowns, Will Henderson III ran for 146 yards, and the defense forced three turnovers in what Traylor called a near perfect outing. They beat Tulane at home on Oct. 30 in similar fashion. 

The success at home is a double-edged sword for UTSA fans, though. How can a team that can beat Tulane – the top-ranked G5 team in America – and a good East Carolina squad so soundly at home but lose on the road to Temple? Last year, the Roadrunners lost at Rice in the same season it beat a ranked Memphis at home. 

The UTSA team we see at home is still a legit powerhouse in the G5 ranks. For some reason, that team disappears on the road. The key for Traylor & Co. in the offseason is to figure out how to get the 210 Triangle of Toughness to travel. The win over ECU put UTSA in its sixth straight bowl game and the last game of the season is at home against Army. That would normally be great news for UTSA and Traylor, although Army has handed UTSA two of its four home losses in the Traylor era.  

Defense leading Bobcats bounce back  

The Texas State defense was atrocious for the first nine games of the season. The Bobcats allowed at least 30 points in seven of the first eight games against FBS competition. The lowest total for an FBS opponent before the current two-game win streak was 27 by Eastern Michigan in the season opener. Texas State began Sun Belt play by allowing 31 to Arkansas State, 48 to Troy, 40 To Marshall, 53 to James Madison, and 42 to Louisiana – all in losses.

The tide began to turn in the second half against the Ragin’ Cajuns when the Texas State defense allowed only seven points in a failed comeback attempt. The resurgence continued by allowing 14 in a win over Southern Miss and then again on Saturday by allowing 14 in a victory over Louisiana-Monroe. Texas State is now a South Alabama win at home away from reaching its third consecutive bowl game in three years under G.J. Kinne. 

Star wide receiver Beau Sparks said after the game that his plan is to return to Texas State in 2026. If the Bobcats can also retain quarterback Brad Jackson and some of the other pieces offensively, they’re a real contender in Year 1 of the new-look Pac-12 if the defensive turnaround is a trend and not a blip. Texas State had higher aspirations than a six-win season entering 2025, but hats off to the Bobcats for picking themselves off the mat after a five-game losing streak to start Sun Belt play to get back into bowl contention and head into the offseason with some semblance of momentum.