We’ve arrived in Week 11, and most of the 13 FBS programs in the Lone Star State still have plenty to play for. Some are still in the national title picture, others can get there by closing strong and stamping passes to the 12-team College Football Playoffs, and for others, bowl bids are on the horizon. Ten of the 13 programs play this week with Texas, SMU, and North Texas idle. 

Here are our three questions for the week. Picks against the spread are at the bottom.

1. Can Texas Tech handle the moment?  

The Red Raiders’ march to the Big 12 Championship game and the College Football Playoff hits its hardest remaining roadblock on Saturday morning when undefeated BYU comes to town. The stakes are high, but straightforward: Win and all that stands in Tech’s way are UCF and West Virginia, two of the worst teams in the Big 12. Lose and the dream dies in Lubbock for 2025. To ratchet up the pressure even more, ESPN College GameDay and former quarterback Patrick Mahomes will also be in the house. 

Texas Tech wants to be a power player in college football. And not just in 2025. The Red Raiders plan to be the next Oregon or Clemson, breaking through the glass ceiling and entering a new level in the CFB caste system. They have the resources, the fan base, and the opportunity. Now, they need the signature wins. The BYU clash in Week 11 provides that stage. All eyes will be on Joey McGuire’s squad, which was the plan when they signed the best portal class in America and invested in the roster. 

Tech is fighting against BYU and history. The Red Raiders haven’t won an outright conference championship since 1955 as members of the Border Conference. They were Big 12 South Division co-champions in 2008, the last time GameDay arrived in Lubbock, and shared Southwest Conference titles in 1976 and 1994, a year in which Texas A&M would’ve won it if not for NCAA sanctions. This is a new stage for Texas Tech. Can they take advantage and grab pole position for the Big 12’s guaranteed playoff spot?  

2. Does Texas A&M lock up a playoff spot with a win? 

Ten wins feels like the magic number for SEC and Big Ten teams to guarantee a spot in the CFP. The Aggies enter the Week 11 trip to Missouri with eight and an upcoming date with FCS Samford. That means a win at Mizzou is essentially Texas A&M’s 10th win. Even with losses to South Carolina and Texas down the stretch, would the committee really leave out an Aggies team that beat Notre Dame on the road, especially if the Fighting Irish are also a 10-2 squad knocking on the CFP door. 

There is a logjam atop the SEC standings and there is a way that five or six programs end the season at 10-2 with a pair of conference losses. What does the committee do if Texas and Oklahoma win out? That would leave Texas, OU, A&M, Alabama, and Georgia at 10-2. And that’s before considering what happens with Ole Miss, which probably has the easiest road to end the regular season. Vanderbilt also only has two losses entering Week 11. But we don’t think the SEC would get punished for that. That scenario isn’t doomsday for the Aggies or the Longhorns. It would instead spell trouble for the runners-up of the ACC and Big 12. 

We think a 10-2 Aggie team is a lock for the CFP and that means a win at Mizzou would do the trick. 

3. Is Texas State a bowl team?  

The fans in San Marcos would’ve thrown stones at a prognosticator that predicted their Bobcats wouldn’t make a bowl in 2025. After all, Texas State entered the season, its final in the Sun Belt, as the favorites in the West Division. That looked like an accurate forecast after the first month of the season because the Bobcats were 3-1 with a big win on the road against UTSA. 

But flash-forward a month and G.J. Kinne’s group still only has three wins following four consecutive losses to start Sun Belt play. They’ll need to win three of their next four to reach a bowl game. That won’t be an easy task. It starts this week with a trip to Louisiana to face a UL program that’s never lost to the Bobcats. A trip to Southern Miss is also on the horizon. 

Lose this week and the 2025 season feels over in San Marcos. A simply stunning turn of events in Year 3 of the Kinne era. 

Picks Against the Spread 

Houston -1.5 over UCF
BYU +10.5 over Texas Tech
Rice -2.5 over UAB
Jax State +1.5 over UTEP
Texas A&M -6.5 over Missouri
2025 record: 31-25