The state of Texas went 7-2 in a consequential Week 9. Texas A&M virtually punched its ticket to the CFP – and fired Brian Kelly in the process – during a second-half route of LSU in Tiger Stadium. The Longhorns escaped on the road in SEC play for the second straight week. Texas Tech lost a quarterback while the other is on the mend. North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker broke a school record and the Dave Aranda tenure at Baylor is at a crossroads. 

Before we start looking ahead to Week 10, here is a Week 9 recap from the FBS ranks in the Lone Star State. 

Aggies essentially a lock for CFP 

The magic number for SEC and Big Ten teams is 10. That’s how many regular season wins are required to guarantee a spot in the College Football Playoffs for programs within those two conferences. The blowout win over LSU on Saturday night resulted in Brian Kelly’s firing and in an eighth win for the No. 3-ranked Aggies. Add in the FCS game against Samford in a couple of weeks and that makes Texas A&M 9-0 on the season for this exercise. 

That means Mike Elko’s squad only needs to win one of the next three against SEC foes – Missouri, South Carolina, and Texas. The Aggies will be favored in all three, even though two are on the road. South Carolina and Texas have underachieved this season and Missouri just lost its starting QB. Texas A&M is headed to the CFP. The only question left is if the program can reach the SEC Championship game for the first time in program history.

Texas Two-Step 

The Horns pulled the same trick two weeks in a row on the road in the SEC. First, they escaped from Kentucky in a low-scoring affair that required a goal line stand in overtime. This weekend, it was a high-scoring shootout with Mississippi State. Texas is 6-2 overall and 3-1 in conference play, and while Sark’s squad is still every bit in the SEC and CFP races, it doesn’t feel that way. The Longhorns still host Vanderbilt and Texas A&M and are on the road against Georgia in a few weeks. I’m not sure anyone believes they can run the table and truly threaten for the postseason. It’s been a disappointing season on the Forty Acres. The headaches got worse with the report that Sarkisian is open to an NFL move. Rather that’s real or not is up for debate, but it’s just another distraction that this team didn’t need. 

Mestemaker the Playmaker 

North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker broke the school and conference record for passing yards in a game with 608 in a 54-20 victory over Charlotte. The Mean Green became the first G5 squad with seven wins and remain on track to threaten in the American even with the loss to South Florida a couple of weeks ago. Sure, Mestemaker is one of the best stories in college football. But he’s not just a cute story. He’s a star who ranks fourth in the country in passing yards per game behind Sawyer Robertson, Darian Mensah, and Jayden Maiava. 

Mestamaker’s success is always another datapoint that suggests head coach Eric Morris is the best offensive play caller in the country. Chandler Rogers ranked 15th in passing yards per game and the offense was 20th in scoring during the 2023 season. Chandler Morris was seventh in the FBS in passing yards per game in 2024 and the Mean Green were 23rd in scoring offense in 2024. This year, they’re the top scoring offense in the country, averaging 46.1 points per game – two more than anyone else. 

The national media wants to look ahead to what this means for Morris and Mestemaker AFTER 2025. The discussions of how much money they’ll demand and what colors they’ll wear are already creeping into articles and onto College GameDay. 

But that shouldn’t matter to North Texas fans. It matters to the administration and boosters who are working to lock Morris into a larger contract and find the funds to afford Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins, Morris, and defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity because that’s just how modern college football works. But the rest of the fan base should just enjoy the ride and see how far this group can carry the Mean Green.  

Texas Tech loses Will Hammond for season 

The Hutto native had started multiple games for the Red Raiders in relief of the oft-injured Behren Morton. He was great against Utah in a big win and showed his grit and promise in a late touchdown drive to give Texas Tech a lead over Arizona State that the defense couldn’t’ hold. Against Oklahoma State, however, Hammond’s 2025 campaign came to an end when he tore his ACL against the Cowboys in a 42-0 lead. The good news for Tech is that Morton is ready to play again and should start when the Red Raiders head to Kansas State. The bad news is that his health isn’t guaranteed to hold up for the rest of the season. If he can start from here on out, Tech is a playoff team and the Big 12 champion. If he can’t, this season will be a “what if” situation. 

It is time in Waco 

I wrote a whole column about it so I won’t waste another 1,000 words on the Dave Aranda situation, but I don’t understand how the Bears can sell the fan base on Year 7. Aranda has gone through multiple coordinators on both sides of the ball, including himself as defensive playmaker. It simply isn’t working. Baylor headed into the 2025 season with Big 12 title aspirations. The Bears are heading into their last open week just hoping to reach a bowl game. Baylor is 120th in scoring defense, sandwiched between Michigan State and Oregon State and only allowing .2 points fewer than Arkansas. Is the Baylor brass going to let him fire himself as DC and hire yet another coordinator? The coaching carousel is overflowing and maybe that keeps Aranda in Waco for another year, but don’t expect the fan base to be okay with it. 

Houston wins one for Texas

Arizona State was marching through the state of Texas. The Sun Devils beat Texas State in non-conference play and then beat the Big 12 trio of Baylor, TCU, and Texas Tech by a combined 10 points. Houston was our only hope left and the Cougars saved the day with a 24-16 win that kept Kenny Dillingham’s program from claiming part of the Lone Star State and elevated Willie Fritz’s program from cute story to legitimate contender. There are always Cinderella stories in the Big 12 and this year there are two – Houston and Cincinnati. The Coogs are 4-1 in conference play and are now ranked No. 22 in the AP Poll. The next two are winnable with West Virginia at home and then a trip to UCF. The final two games are against TCU and Baylor. Don’t be shocked if Houston wins 10 games this season. That Fritz Magic is real, folks. 

SMU drops a conference game 

For the first time since joining the ACC, the Ponies lost a regular season conference game. The 13-12 loss at Wake Forest was a tough watch. The defense played well, forcing five turnovers, but the offense couldn’t capitalize. A Kevin Jennings turnover deep in SMU territory was turned into a Demon Deacon touchdown drive and that proved the difference in the game. It was the quintessential trap game for the Mustangs. They knocked off Clemson on the road the weekend prior and have a home game against Miami coming up on Saturday. The defense is coming around, but a hobbled Jennings and an inconsistent run game will keep SMU from reliving the success of 2024. 

TCU ‘s tough road home 

Matt Jennings put it best on Twitter when he said, “This TCU team has an uncanny ability to win in ways that do not feel like winning.” I can’t put it any better than that. It happened two straight weeks in victories over Baylor at home and West Virginia on the road. The Frogs are bowl eligible at 6-2 overall and still loosely in the Big 12 mix at 3-2 in conference play. But winning eight games would be an accomplishment given the remaining schedule. Their remaining opponents are 16-4 in conference and 27-5 overall. Split those and end the season 8-4 and TCU fans should be happy with the season. The team total entering the year was 6.5. 

Rice hits the over 

Our friends in the desert set the Rice team total at 3.5. The Owls, under the direction of new head coach Scott Abell, got off to a 3-1 start and the 3.5 total felt like a sure bet. Then, Rice lost three straight, including a home game to FAU, and suddenly that no longer felt like a guarantee. The Owls took advantage of the open date in Week 8 and came out refreshed and improved as a double-digit underdog to UConn, winning in overtime to reach four wins and hit the over. Two more wins gets Rice to a bowl game. The remaining schedule is daunting, but a game against UAB could get the Owls to five wins. That would be a great proof of concept for Abell’s project.