Week 1 provided plenty of discourse across the state of Texas starting with the Longhorns’ loss, and Arch Manning’s poor play, on the road against now No. 1 Ohio State and ending with TCU’s dominant victory over Bill Belichick’s Fighting Jordon Hudson’s on Monday night. The 13 teams in the Lone Star State combined for an 8-5 record and enter Week 3 at 8-6 overall with Sam Houston starting in Week 0. 

Week 2 typically shows us what was true and what was false from Week 1. The slate is headlined by Baylor’s trip to SMU and the I-35 Rivalry between Texas State and UTSA. Here are my three questions for the week. 

1. Can either defense step up in UTSA vs. Texas State? 

The rivalry game against UTSA and Texas State is commonly referred to as the I-35 Rivalry. Anyone who has driven on I-35 in Texas knows it moves slower than the Chisolm and Shawnee Trails that it was built over. The modern version is more stop than go. But there might not be any stops in the game between the Roadrunners and the Bobcats at 2:30 p.m. inside the Alamodome. The projected total of 65.5 is the highest line in college football for Week 2. Vegas expects points. So should you. 

Texas State’s defense was better in 2024 but neither unit was dominant. The Bobcats ranked 60th in scoring defense compared to 103rd for UTSA. Both defenses ranked in the 100s in passing defense and each were in the bottom half of the country in run defense and opponent redzone touchdown percentage. Texas State gave up 27 points in a win over an Eastern Michigan team that will undoubtedly average fewer points than that by seasons end considering the team averaged 25.9 last season. Same can be said for the 42 given up by the Roadrunners against Texas A&M in Week 1. 

Both offenses are explosive. Texas State was 7th last year in scoring offense while UTSA was 27. The Roadrunners returned most of the starting lineup from that unit and put a scare into the Aggies last week, led by Robert Henry Jr.’s 177 rushing yards, which were fourth-most in the country during Week 1. Texas State’s Lincoln Pare checked in at 7th with 167 yards in the win over EMU. Both quarterbacks – Owen McCown and Brad Jackson – are playmakers, though McCown holds more experience. 

This one might come down to mistakes and big plays. Neither offense turned the ball over last week and neither defense caused one. The first offense to blink, or the first defense to rise and make a play, wins. If neither defensive unit is up for the task, this game comes down to who has the ball last. 

I’m taking UTSA to win but Texas State at +4.5. This one feels like a toss-up. Siding with the Roadrunners because they have the experienced QB and are 29-3 at home under Jeff Traylor. Don’t feel confident about it because Jackson is a star in the making. 

2. Will Baylor improve defensively? 

The Bears entered 2025 with high hopes. The fan base exited McLane Stadium after the Week 1 home loss to Auburn with a crisis in faith. That’s because the Bears played an all-too-familiar type of football game in the Dave Aranda era. His defense allowed 307 yards rushing on 5.9 yards per carry to a Tigers team that reached the end zone four times on the ground. Auburn scored 38 points in the win. In four of his five seasons in charge, Aranda’s defense has allowed over 20. They were 81st in scoring defense last season and 116th the year before. The 2021 unit is the only one to rank inside the Top 60 nationally. Not great, Bob. 

Baylor played zone (quarters or cover-2) for most of the game against the Auburn, suggesting that Aranda was so concerned about his pass defense against the Tiger receivers that he sacrificed a heavy box to slow down Jackson Arnold and the run game. The good news for Baylor is Week 2 opponent SMU isn’t as stacked at receiver and maybe Aranda plays more aggressive near the line of scrimmage to slow down the Ponies rushing attack. The bad news is Rhett Lashlee’s offense always score points. They were 7th in scoring offense last year at 36.5 points per game and 8th in 2023 at 38.7. SMU scored 31 in Week 1. 

A loss to SMU doesn’t ruin the season for Baylor. A Big 12 championship is the prize and losses to the Mustangs and Auburn doesn’t end that journey. The Bears started 2-4 last year before ripping off six straight wins to close the season. That run provided the hope heading into 2025 and kept Aranda in his seat. Another slow start heats that seat back up as a 2-4 start again isn’t out of the question with games against Arizona State and Kansas State scheduled early in Big 12 play. 

3. How much has SMU QB Kevin Jennings improved? 

Jennings took over for Preston Stone after the BYU loss in the third game of the season last year and led the Mustangs to the ACC Championship game and a spot in the College Football Playoff. Over his first four starts – TCU, Florida State, Louisville, and Stanford – the South Oak Cliff product threw for nine touchdowns to just two interceptions. Take away the three-interception performance on the road against Duke in late October of last year and Jennings threw for 19 touchdowns to four interceptions in eight of his first nine starts. 

But ask the average college football fan and even most national analysts about Jennings and the only memory is the Penn State loss in the first round of the CFP. In that game, Jennings threw for three interceptions to just one touchdown. It has colored his perception all offseason, fair or foul. The home game in Week 2 against Baylor offers KJ a chance to remind the audience what type of quarterback he is as he faces Baylor signal-caller Sawyer Robertson, who received more praise and accolades in the months leading into the season. 

Jennings added over 10 pounds of muscle to help his 6-0, 192-pound frame. He also had a whole offseason of being QB1 compared to last year when he was in a battle with Stone. Those extra reps must’ve helped the redshirt sophomore. As will a second year with quarterback coach D’Eriq King. He threw at least one interception in six of his 11 starts. SMU will need to score points against a shaky Baylor defense to keep up with the high-octane Bears offense. The only way the Baylor defense helps win this game on the road is if SMU, specifically Jennings, makes mistakes. 

Week 2 Picks Against the Spread 

SMU -3 over Baylor
Texas State +4.5 over UTSA
North Texas -9.5 over Western Michigan
Houston -13.5 over Rice
Sam Houston +6.5 over Hawaii 

2025 record: 5-4