Expectations change as quickly as rosters in modern college football. Texas State didn’t win eight games in a single season over the Bobcats’ first 11 seasons as an FBS program. G.J. Kinne has reached that mark twice in two years in San Marcos.

The first time was celebrated like a Super Bowl. But last year, it felt more like a disappointment. That’s because Texas State entered the year with a stacked roster and hopes of winning the Sun Belt and contending for the G5 spot in the College Football Playoff.

“We beat UTSA and North Texas in the same season and I would think most years that would be celebrated like the best year ever, but for us last year, it wasn’t,” Kinne said. “I think that’s a good problem to have. It means we’ve had success and our fans want more. So do we.”

The next step is a Sun Belt championship. Texas State only posted one winning record in conference play before Kinne’s arrival and that was back in 2014 under Dennis Franchione. The Bobcats finished 5-3 in the Sun Belt last season to match that mark from 2014. Kinne enters Year 3 at Texas State with a 16-10 overall record and a 9-7 mark against conference foes.

To climb the mountaintop and compete alongside Louisiana and Troy in the West Division, Texas State must rely on a roster decimated by the transfer portal. The offense lost running back Ish Mahdi to Arizona, wide receiver Kole Wilson to Baylor, and left tackle Alex Harkey to Oregon. On the defensive line alone, the Bobcats lost Dominque Ratcliff to Indiana, Terry Webb to SMU, Ben Bell to Virginia Tech, and Tavian Coleman to Colorado.

“The portal was not kind to us,” Kinne said. “But, at the end of the day, the culture and what we’re building here is what will win us games. I would say this has been the most enjoyable team I’ve had here. I can’t predict how many games we’ll win, but going out there to practice has been fun.”

The Kinne era began with a bang. His first game as a head coach at the FBS level was a trip to Baylor to face the heavily favored Bears. The Bobcats left with a 42-31 victory and the headache of every fan base and media personality in the state wondering where Kinne would coach next. Heck, most of the Baylor fan base would’ve hired him on the spot and never let him drive back to San Marcos to celebrate.

But while the college football world contemplated Kinne’s next move, he concentrated on where his feet were. Few expected he’d still be at Texas State for a Year 3, but the signs were there that he intended to lay a foundation of success at Texas State, just like his mentor Jeff Traylor has done at rival UTSA. Kinne received a ton of press clippings for overturning the roster in Year 1 with a herd of transfers, but he quietly recruited the high school ranks the last two cycles to build a roster meant to last.

“It can be frustrating because our goal was to never go win a bunch early and then bail,” Kinne said. “We’re building this thing to last. Obviously, it is nice for people to think highly of you and all that, but I’m a Texas guy. Like, going to Purdue doesn’t fire me up, you know? I always point to Scott Frost at UCF. Like, no one tells you when you’re climbing the ladder of success to stop when you’re happy.”

Happiness for a head coach and a fan base in college football is measured in wins. For better or for worse, Kinne has re-established expectations in San Marcos and awaken a sleeping giant. One with major aspirations in and out of the Sun Belt. His first two years raised the floor. In 2025, Texas State hopes to raise the ceiling.

DCTF Take

Texas State perfectly illustrates how expectations alter perception in college football. The Bobcats and head coach G.J. Kinne were celebrated after winning eight games, including the bowl, in 2023 – his first season in charge. They repeated that same success in 2024, but it felt like a disappointment considering the lofty expectations in San Marcos entering the season. A roster flip was required after 2024 as the Bobcats lost most of their best players to the transfer portal or graduation. That’s life as a G5 program. A run at the Sun Belt West championship isn’t off the table.

Offensive Breakdown

Texas State lost offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich to Texas Tech after the Bobcats finished seventh in scoring offense (36.5 points per game) and fifth in total offense (476.9 yards per game) in 2024. They’ve finished in the top 11 of scoring offenses in both years under head coach G.J. Kinne and he doesn’t believe fans will notice a drastic change in offensive philosophy outside of tweaks to match the strengths of the roster.

Kinne elevated assistant wide receivers coach Landon Keopple to offensive coordinator in the offseason. The two also worked together at Hawaii and Incarnate Word. Who calls plays on Saturdays in the fall between the two is a detail to be ironed out in fall camp, but the offensive scheme that helped Kinne reach an FCS semifinal and win 16 games over two seasons at Texas State is here to stay.

“We’ve been together for a long time, so he knows how I think, what I like, how I operate,” Kinne said of Keopple. “Maybe this is my ego talking, but why would I go hire someone that someone else trained when I’ve already done that? There’s something to be said for hiring from within and keeping that continuity.”

Kinne & Co. must replace the starting quarterback for the third consecutive season. The Bobcats added transfer quarterbacks Holden Geriner, Nate Yarnell, and Gevani McCoy in the spring portal window to compete with the returning Brad Jackson. McCoy transferred out after spring ball and Texas State added SMU transfer Keldric Luster. The battle for the quarterback spot will last into fall camp and figures to be a three-man race between Jackson, Luster, and Geriner.

Texas State also lost its top three receivers from last year, including star Joey Hobert. The Bobcats know what to expect from Chris Dawn Jr. and Beau Sparks after the duo combined for 62 catches for 689 yards and eight touchdowns as reserves last season. Kylen Evans exited spring ball as the third receiver. Blake Smith’s return from injury is good news for the tight end position. Kinne hinted that his Bobcats could play more 12 personnel – one running back, two tight ends – than normal because of Titus Lyons and Ty Stamey.

The running back room is stacked with experience and talent, led by senior Lincoln Pare. He was the MVP in the bowl game and finished the year with a team-high eight rushing touchdowns on 95 carries for 554 yards. The loss of Ismail Mahdi to Arizona in the transfer portal hurts, but Pare, Jaylen Jenkins, Torrance Burgess Jr., and UNLV transfer Greg Burrell form arguably the best running back stable in the Sun Belt.

Offensive line is another position breaking in new faces at multiple spots. Texas State quietly led the state in rushing last season and repeating that success without the likes of Alex Harkey, who transferred to Oregon, and Nash Jones is a tough challenge. Dorion Strawn is the starter at left tackle. Tellek Lockette returns at right guard but could end up as the starting center. Sully Burns, Brock Riker, and transfer Lysander Moeolo are names to know in the trenches. Emeka Obigbo and Ezra Dotson-Oyetade are also in the mix at guard and center, respectively.

 

Breakout Candidates

RB Greg Burrell – A former three-star who arrives from UNLV after rushing 65 times for 366 yards and three touchdowns last season. He topped over 100 yards on 11 carries in a win over Utah Tech early in the season. He’ll be the biggest back for Texas State. 

QB Keldric Luster – Texas State added TJ Finley after spring ball in Kinne’s first season in charge and that worked out for the Bobcats. Luster was a three-star recruit at McKinney who played in seven games over two years at SMU. He could emerge as the starting quarterback by Week 1.

 

Projected Starters

QB          8               Brad Jackson  RS-Fr.  6-0, 200               San Antonio Reagan

RB           7               Lincoln Pare    Sr.           5-9, 200               Germantown, Tenn.

WR         1               Chris Dawn Jr.                 Jr.             5-7, 170               Mesquite Horn

WR         11            Beau Sparks    Jr.             5-11, 175            El Paso Franklin

WR         17            Kylen Evans     Soph.   6-2, 200               Frisco Emerson

TE            16            Blake Smith     Jr.             6-4, 247               Southlake Carroll

LT            64            Dorion Strawn                 Sr.           6-6, 315               Ennis   

LG           X               Lysander Moeolo          Sr.           6-6, 360               Viatogi, American Samoa

C              51            Brock Riker       Rs-Fr.   6-4, 290               Brock

RG          74            Tellek Lockette               Sr.           6-3, 327               Miami, Fla.

RT            68            Sully Burns       Soph.   6-7, 309               Plano

K               Not one on roster yet
 

Keep an Eye On

The Bobcats lack proven depth at wide receiver after losing their top three pass catchers from last year. The staff likes starters Chris Dawn Jr. and Beau Sparks, but there is uncertainty after those two. Texas State turned to the spring transfer portal to reinforce the ranks and add some potential breakout candidates out wide to help what will be a young and inexperienced starting quarterback regardless of who wins the job. Tyrin Smith (Cincinnati), Marvin Anderson (Cal), L.J. Johnson (Texas Tech), and Tiaquelin Mims (Southern Miss) can become instant factors in an offense that’s passed the ball 429 times in each of the last two seasons.

 

By the Numbers

36.5 – That’s how many points Texas State averaged per game last year, which was tied for seventh-best in the FBS with SMU. Only Texas Tech scored more in Texas.

339 – Only Miami registered more first downs on the season than the Bobcats. Texas State averaged over 26 first downs per game.

476.9 – Only four teams averaged more yards per game than Texas State during the eight-win 2024. North Texas was the only in-state school with more.

 

Defensive Breakdown

The plight facing G6 programs in modern college football is best illustrated by the Texas State defensive line. Ben Bell is now at Virginia Tech, though the talented defensive end wasn’t a huge factor last year as he preserved his redshirt for a chance at Power Four football. Terry Webb is at SMU. Dominque Ratcliff (Indiana) and Tavian Coleman (Colorado) are also gone. Oh, and Steven Parker ran out of eligibility.

Second-year defensive coordinator Dexter McCoil has his work cut out for him. The Bobcats improved from 114th in scoring defense to 60th in his first season calling plays as they chopped off over eight points allowed per game. The 24.5 points per game allowed in 2024 ranked fourth-best in the Sun Belt behind James Madison, Marshall, and Louisiana – two of the three teams that played for the conference championship.

“We’re a multiple, aggressive defense that dictates an offense and can be versatile in what we do and how we challenge an offense,” McCoil said of his defensive philosophy.  “I wouldn’t put us in a box as a four-man front or a three-man front. We’re going to run whatever best suits our personnel and helps us stop the opposing offense.”

The star up front figures to be Kalil Alexander, who was a breakout star for the Bobcats last season in the absence of Bell. He started in five games and played in all 13, leading the Bobcats with 11 tackles for loss. He also recorded 6.5 sacks and recovered two fumbles to go along with 39 tackles. The trio of Tymere Jackson, Jo’Laison Landry, and Kenard Snyder will compete for starting snaps opposite of Alexander and help Texas State rush the passer.

The top three defensive tackles after spring practice were Kamren Washington, Jordan Sanders, and Michael Nwokocha. Washington transferred in from Syracuse while Sanders arrived from Cal Poly. Washington was a reserve on the Bobcats last season, registering five tackles, including 3.5 for loss, while appearing in 10 games. A stout interior is key to repeating Texas State’s success stopping the run. Last year, the unit was third-best in the Sun Belt in that category.

Michael Boudoin III and Treylin Payne left spring as the expected starters at linebacker. Both played in 13 games for the Bobcats last season, but it was Payne that was more productive in 2024, tallying 28 tackles. Transfers Ayden Jones (Prairie View A&M) and Terrence Cooks (TCU) could also figure into the starting rotation. Cooks began his college career at Texas.

Battles in the secondary will continue throughout the summer and fall camp. A trio of cornerbacks – Jaden Rios, Canden Grogan, and Trez Moore – are competing for the two starting cornerback spots. Rios arrived from East Texas A&M while Moore began his career at UTEP. Grogan was a reserve who played in 13 games last year and recorded nine tackles and one pass breakup.

Texas State will play most snaps with three safeties on the field. Darius Jackson, Bobby Crosby, and Ryan Nolan figure to be those three safeties, though which two play deep and which one starts at nickel wasn’t settled in the spring. Nolan and Jackson combined for 80 tackles last season. Crosby only played in four regular season games due to injury, which preserved his eligibility for one more season.

Breakout Candidates

DE Jo’Laison Landry – The sophomore from C.E. King registered 7.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks in 13 games last season. He added five quarterback hurries and two forced fumbles in reserve duty. His role will increase this season and he could emerge as a starter opposite of Kalil Alexander. 

CB Trez Moore – The former UTEP transfer earned his lone start of the season for the Bobcats in 2024 in the bowl victory over North Texas. He did play in all 13 games and is in the competition to start at cornerback in 2025. Moore recorded two interceptions and four pass breakups last year.

 

Projected Starters

DE           22            Kalil Alexander                Sr.           6-3, 225               Charlotte, N.C.

DT           99            Kamren Washington  Jr.             6-2, 290               Mansfield Summit

DT           88               Jordan Sanders               Jr.             6-4, 285               Hawthorne, Calif.

DE           34            Tymere Jackson Jr.      RS-Fr.  6-3, 218               Waxahachie

WLB      29            Treylin Payne  Sr.           6-0, 215               Converse Judson

MLB       26            Michael Boudoin III     Sr. 6-4, 224       Hays

NB          27            Bobby Crosby                                    Sr.           6-2, 190               Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

CB          21            Canden Grogan              Sr.           6-3, 175               Barbers Hill

CB          9               Jaden Rios         Sr.           6-0, 172               Frisco Lone Star

FS            5               Darius Jackson               Jr.             6-2, 195               Red Oak

SS           32            Ryan Nolan       Jr.             5-10, 181            Gainesville, Fla.

P               38            David Nunez    Sr.           5-10, 182            Houston Second Baptist

Keep an Eye On

The Bobcats weren’t shy adding to the roster on both sides of the ball in the spring transfer portal window. They don’t need all those players to hit, but a handful might dictate the level of success Texas State enjoys in 2025. That’s especially true on defense where the program added Power Four defensive linemen Bryce Carter (Virginia), Donterry Russell (Mississippi State), David Abiara (SMU), and J.P. Deeter (Arizona State) in April and May. The Bobcats also added linebacker Ashton Heflin (Marshall) and defensive back D.J. Taylor (Cincinnati) after spring practices ended.

 

By the Numbers

24.5 – That’s how many points per game Texas State allowed last year, which ranks 60th in the FBS. That’s over eight points better than 2023.

96 – The Bobcats were one of the most disruptive defenses in the country as they ranked 14th nationally with nearly 100 tackles for loss on the year.

55.81 – Texas State was stingy in the red zone, allowing a touchdown in just over 55% of opponents’ trips. That was 45th in FBS.

Ceiling

10-2

A double-digit win season would put Texas State on the doorstep of its first conference championship as an FBS program. The Bobcats were solid on the road in 2024, and they’ll need to be again in 2025 with trips to UTSA, Arizona State, Marshall, and Louisiana on the docket.  

Floor

6-6

Dipping below bowl eligibility is tough to imagine, but a slide backwards from two straight eight-win seasons isn’t out of the cards if the Bobcats don’t hit on the transfers like they did in the previous two cycles with G.J. Kinne steering the ship. A tough schedule awaits a new cast of players. 

 

Coach Gossip

“I’m not sure there is a better evaluator of talent at the G5 level than G.J. Most of us at that level would kill for his roster last season and that’s a testament to him because it isn’t like most of those guys were big time before he got them to San Marcos. The transfer portal killed them, though, and I think losing Mack (Leftwich) is a bigger deal than most probably think it is.” 

“They probably should have won more games last year, if we’re being honest. It’s those details that cost you games and that is a young staff. Look at where a lot of their starters are now – that roster was loaded. They were better at the beginning of the season than the end and it takes consistency to break through from seven, eight wins to a conference championship.” 

2024 RESULTS

Aug. 31                 Lamar  W, 34-27
Sept. 7                  UTSA    W, 49-10
Sept. 12               Arizona State  L, 31-28
Sept. 28               at Sam Houston             L, 40-39
Oct. 3                     at Troy W, 38-17
Oct. 12                 Arkansas State               W, 41-9
Oct. 19                 at Old Dominion            L, 24-14
Oct. 29                 Louisiana           L, 23-17
Nov. 9                    at ULM                  W, 38-17
Nov. 16                 Southern Miss                 W, 58-3
Nov. 23                 Georgia State L, 52-44
Nov. 29                 South Alabama               W, 45-38

Record: 8-5 (5-3)

 

2025 PREDICTIONS

Aug. 30                 Eastern Michigan          W
Sept. 6                  at UTSA                L
Sept. 13               at Arizona State              L
Sept. 20               Nicholls               W
Oct. 4                     at Arkansas State         W

Oct. 11                 Troy       W
Oct. 18                 at Marshall       W

Oct. 28                 James Madison              L
Nov. 8                    at Louisiana     L

Nov. 15                 at Southern Miss           W
Nov. 22                 ULM      W
Nov. 29                 South Alabama               W
Record: 8-4 (6-2)

Biggest Game

Oct. 28 vs. James Madison

The Dukes quickly became the top dogs in the Sun Belt and are the preseason favorite again in 2025. With most of the headline games away from San Marcos – UTSA, Arizona State, Louisiana – the James Madison game feels like a chance to make a statement on a Tuesday night.

 

Trap Game

Oct. 18 at Marshall

Sandwiched between marquee home games against Troy and James Madison is a trip to West Virginia to face a Thundering Herd program undergoing a complete reset following Charles Huff’s departure. Marshall could struggle in Year 1 under Tony Gibson as he replaces most of his roster. 

Upset Bid

Nov. 8 at Louisiana

Texas State broke a long losing streak against UTSA and Troy in 2024. The Bobcats hope to slay a new beast in 2025 against a Louisiana program that is 11-0 against them since 2013. Texas State lost the last two by a combined 10 points with G.J. Kinne in charge.