It's the second week of the 2023 Texas high school football season, with 700+ games scattered across the state. There are favorites...but who could spring the upset?

Using DCTF's computer projections, DCTF managing editor Greg Tepper identifies three teams that could pull the upset in Week 2.

Smithson Valley (0-1) at Killeen Harker Heights (1-0)
Harker Heights projected to win by 4 (51.7%)

I've said all week that Week 1 is the worst set of data we'll get all season — it's the first game of the year, we have no way of triangulating results, and a million other factors conspire to make it a largely unusable set of numbers. All of that is to say, I'm not prepared to throw dirt on Smithson Valley. A one-point loss to a 6A San Antonio Reagan team (which may be better than we anticipated) doesn't sway me from thinking the Rangers are true Region III contenders in 5A Division I, especially if the defense continues to play the way it has. It cuts the opposite way for Harker Heights, which drilled KISD bunkmate Ellison in its opener and looked good doing it, getting a balanced attack from quarterback Dylan Plake and a trio of running backs. This is a 6A against a 5A, and on the road no less, but Smithson Valley's defense should provide a much stiffer challenge to the Knights, and the offense led by receiver Freddie Dubose lifts off to draw the Rangers' record even.

Tenaha (1-0) at San Augustine (1-0)
Tenaha projected to win by 5 (63.5%)

Your feeling on this game will ultimately reflect how "back" you think San Augustine is. The Wolves limped into 2023 on a 19-game losing streak and losers of 23 of their previous 24 games...only to beat Hemphill — a Top 20 team in 3A Division II — by two touchdowns, on the road. Third-year coach Tory Barnes may have turned the ship around there with guys like DeMarion Teagle and Tymorian Cartwright. Now they return home to face a Tenaha team that was not all that convincing in their 21-20 win over West Sabine. It's better to win ugly than lose pretty, but the Tigers only mustered 177 yards of total offense on the night, which might be problematic against a potentially resurgent San Augustine squad. I certainly understand why Tenaha is the favorite based on the trajectory of these programs the past couple of years, but I think the Wolves could howl to 2-0.

Tuscola Jim Ned (1-0) at Holliday (1-0)
Holliday projected to win by 6 (66.1%)

Holliday is a rightful favorite in this game, ranked No. 8 in 3A Division II after edging out 4A Iowa Park in the opener. But Jim Ned was undoubtedly more impressive in Week 1, hammering reigning 2A Division I state champion Hawley behind a relentless defensive effort (4 sacks, 11 TFL and an interception) and a balanced attack from running back Brayden Shipman and quarterback Gray Beasley. My concern for Holliday here is their usage rate of quarterback Grant Cox — on their 42 offensive snaps in Week 1, Cox either threw or ran it 33 times. Now, it worked (152 yards rushing and two scores, another 71 yards passing), but he'll need some help and some offensive diversity to keep this Jim Ned team — fresh off largely shutting down a multi-star Hawley team — from keying on Cox. I think the matchup favors the Indians.