College football is never boring, and Week 11 around the state of Texas drives home that point. Texas was upset in overtime at home by Kansas. A Kansas team that went over a decade without a road win in the Big 12. Texas A&M lost any hope at an SEC title game appearance with a loss at Ole Miss. Baylor rebounded from its loss to TCU with an upset win over Oklahoma, and Texas Tech used a 62-yard field goal as time expired to beat Iowa State and achieve bowl eligibility. 

We examine the biggest storylines from the weekend with the 411, which includes four truths, one question, and one prediction from an action-packed weekend of football for the 12 FBS programs inside the Lone Star State. 

Four truths

Dave Aranda is a hot commodity: The last thing Baylor fans want to read less than 24 hours after upsetting Oklahoma at home to keep Big 12 title hopes alive is that Aranda is moving up coaching boards across the nation. Baylor was 3-7 in 2020, and there were questions surrounding Aranda and his ability to be more than a defensive coordinator. He’s answered any of those questions in 2021. The Zen Master is cool, calm, and collected, and his Baylor team plays like a mirror image to its head coach’s personality. 

The loss to TCU a week ago could’ve derailed the season. Instead, it fueled the Bears to a rebound performance in a 27-14 victory over Oklahoma despite an interception and only 117 passing yards by Gerry Bohanon. Baylor won with its running game and its defense. Abram Smith ran for 146 yards, while the defense held the Sooners to 260 yards of total offense and only seven points in each half. 

Baylor is a great job, but it is a stretch to call it a destination job. Bears fans watched Matt Rhule leave for the NFL after a season that ended in a Big 12 title game appearance. A similar decision might face Aranda after the 2021 season. Not an NFL job, but for one of the handful of openings at the FBS level. LSU, where Aranda was the defensive coordinator during a national championship season, is open. So is USC. Who knows what other jobs will open between now and January? 

UTSA was fortunate to remain undefeated: UTSA laid an egg in the 10-point win over Southern Miss. Most of the other teams on the UTSA schedule would’ve beaten the Roadrunners with that type of performance on Saturday. The offense looked lost for three of the four quarters. Quarterback Frank Harris, maybe the most improved player in Texas from last year to this year, made a few uncharacteristic mistakes, including two interceptions and a turnover on downs near the end zone when he kept the ball rather than handing it to Sincere McCormick. McCormick only managed 90 yards on 19 carries. Even wide receiver Zakhari Franklin was held in relative check. 

Southern Miss was without a quarterback, forcing Frank Gore Jr. to play the position. Southern Miss ran the wildcat for most of the game and still found itself in the lead until the final snap of the third quarter. As a team, the Golden Eagles passed the ball seven times for 52 yards. The rushing attack averaged just 2.9 yards a carry. Still, Southern Miss was in position to win the game due to a poor performance by the Roadrunners. 

Maybe that was a blessing in disguise. The Conference USA West division title is on the line next week in a home game against a UAB squad capable of beating UTSA if the Roadrunners show up with the same effort displayed against Southern Miss. At 10-0, UTSA has a real shot to finish the season undefeated, but the group must play better than it did on Saturday. 

There’s renewed energy in Lubbock: Let’s say it like it was: Texas Tech was never bought in on Matt Wells as the head coach of the Red Raiders. Maybe the guys hiring thought Wells was the right fit, but the donors, fans, and former letter winners never thought Wells was the right fit. Each of those groups made that perfectly clear to me during my two days in Lubbock to interview new head coach Joey McGuire and attend the Iowa State game. 

The Red Raider program is all-in on McGuire. The fans are happy. The donors approve. The high school coaches around the state are ready and willing to send their players to Lubbock. Spirits are high on the plains. Add a thrilling victory over Iowa State that required a 62-yard field goal as time expired to reach six wins and bowl eligibility, and the good feelings are back around the Texas Tech football team. 

Two things felt true after leaving Lubbock on Saturday night: Sonny Cumbie looks like the leading candidate to be the offensive coordinator in 2022, and quarterback Donovan Smith is a real contender for the starting spot next season. McGuire and Cumbie already have a close relationship, and the two are aligned with how the offense should look moving forward. Smith completed 25 of 32 passes for 322 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran the ball for 50 yards. The team passed 33 times. It ran the ball 34. That’s the type of balance McGuire wants moving forward. 

Texas, Texas A&M disappoint: The truth is that the perception of football inside the state of Texas, at least by those on the outside, is shaped by the success of Texas and Texas A&M. The state of Texas looks like a disappointment to the larger football world due to the poor seasons turned in by the two flagship universities of the Lone Star State. Texas A&M fell to 7-3 after a 10-point loss to Ole Miss. Two interceptions by Zach Calzada in the fourth quarter doomed a comeback attempt by the Aggies. A poor defense and a weird rotation at quarterback allowed Kansas to break a 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play. 

The problems at Texas A&M look fixable. The defense is outstanding. The offensive line is coming together. The Aggies simply need to find a quarterback, and it might be the injured Haynes King. Jimbo Fisher must also improve the play at wide receiver whether that’s with another year of development for the guys on campus or through recruiting and the transfer portal. The lack of explosive plays through the air is why Texas A&M isn’t competing for an SEC championship. 

The problems at Texas are systematic. The rotating door of coaches has left the current roster void of any belief. That’s why the Longhorns can’t close the door on any opponent, even Kansas at home. Texas is on a five-game losing streak. That’s not something experienced even at the low points of the Charlie Strong or Tom Herman era. Texas was leading at halftime in four of those games. Against Kansas, Texas made a fourth-quarter comeback and even took the lead in overtime, but the defense couldn’t get one last stop. That’s a team hoping to win, not expecting to win. 

One question 

Can North Texas rally to bowl eligibility? 

The Mean Green looked dead in the water after an embarrassing home loss to Marshall back on Oct. 15. The 49-21 defeat was 49-7 at half and it dropped North Texas to 1-5 on the season. Obituaries were being crafted for the end of the Seth Littrell era with half a season remaining. Instead of giving up, North Texas battled. The Mean Green are now on a three-game winning streak following a late win over UTEP. Bowl eligibility isn’t out of the question. North Texas can reach 5-6 with a win at FIU on Nov. 20 and then close the season at home against a UTSA squad that might already have its spot in the C-USA title game wrapped up. 

One prediction 

Houston wins the AAC: The Cougars are the most disrespected team in Texas. Houston is the first program to qualify for its conference championship game from the state of Texas in 2021, but not many people are singing the Cougars’ praises. Their winning streak moved to nine games after a 37-8 win over Temple. That win clinched a spot in the AAC championship game on Dec. 4, likely against Cincinnati. I like Houston’s chances in that game. Clayton Tune is on fire at the quarterback position. Alton McCaskill broke the school record for rushing touchdowns by a freshman with 14. Nathaniel Dell is the best wide receiver in the country that no one talks about. And the defense averages nearly five sacks a game. Oh, and Marcus Jones can return any kick or punt back for a touchdown. The Cougars are for real, and we need to treat them accordingly.