MIAMI —Texas Tech and Oregon square off at the Orange Bowl in what should be one of the most intriguing games of the College Football Playoff. Kickoff is set at 11 a.m. Central with the Ducks currently favored by 2.5 with a projected total of 52.5, which is the second highest of the quarterfinal round behind only Georgia vs. Ole Miss. 

Oregon is 12-1 on the season with its only blemish coming against No. 1-ranked Indiana back on Oct. 11. The Ducks are on a seven-game winning streak that includes victories over Iowa and USC. They beat James Madison by 17 points in the first round of the CFP. Tech received a bye after winning the Big 12 championship in dominant fashion. The Red Raiders haven’t lost with starting quarterback Behren Morton in the line up with the lone blemish taking place on the road against Arizona State when he was out with an injury. 

These two teams are evenly matched on paper in what should be an excellent watch for neutrals. Here are five keys that could decide the game. 

1. Texas Tech’s pass rush 

The Red Raider defensive front seven gets its chance to prove that it is more than “Big 12 good” in a matchup against a solid Oregon pass pro. David Bailey (13.5 sacks) and Romello Height (9 sacks) headline a Texas Tech pass rush that’s averaging three sacks a game. The Ducks use RPOs and a quick pass game to help that front, allowing only 14 sacks in 12 games, which ranks 14th in the FBS. 

But in Oregon’s lone loss this year – a 30-20 defeat at home to Big Ten champion Indiana – the Ducks allowed six of those 14 sacks. Oregon’s weapons at wide receiver and tight end would scare any defense, even Texas Tech’s. Those weapons can be neutralized if the Red Raiders get pressure on the Ducks in the same manner that they did against the entire Big 12.  

2. Oregon’s run game 

The Ducks are quietly a run-based offense – 478 rushes to 363 pass attempts – and that prevents defenses from pinning their ears back and attacking QB Dante Moore. And just like the sack numbers mentioned above, the Indiana loss provides a road map for the Texas Tech defense. The Ducks averaged 6.12 yards per carry and 228.42 yards per game on the ground in their 11 wins. They ran for 81 yards on 30 carries against the Hoosiers. Oregon wants to run the ball, not only to gain yards and score points but to keep the Texas Tech pass rush honest. The odds shift dramatically in the Red Raiders’ favor if they can make Oregon’s offense one-dimensional and then let Bailey, Height, and that front seven go hunt. 

3. Behren Morton vs. Dante Moore 

Both offenses are in the Top 10 in scoring this year with Texas Tech at No. 2 with 42.5 points per game and Oregon at No. 9 with 39.4 points per game. But neither QB is in the Top 30 in passing. Morton is 35th in the FBS with 240.3 passing yards per game while Moore is 41st with 234.3. They are efficient, however. Morton has 22 interceptions to four interceptions while Moore has 28 touchdowns and eight picks. Moore was electric in the first-round win over James Madison, passing for 313 yards and four touchdowns, though he did throw two interceptions. Morton was 20-of-33 for 214 yards and a pair of touchdowns, including a dot to Coy Eakin in the Big 12 championship. 

4. Red zone touchdowns 

If there is an Achille’s heel for the Red Raiders, it is in the red zone. They’re 96th in the FBS in red zone touchdown percentage while only scoring TDs on 56.16 percent of their trips this season. That number drops to 28.57 percent in the three games against Top 25 competition – BYU and Utah. It hasn’t cost Texas Tech yet in a big game, but the Oregon offense figures to score enough points, even against a stout Tech defense, to force the Red Raiders into chasing touchdowns, not field goals. Oregon’s offense scores touchdowns on 67.92 percent of its red zone trips. The good news for Tech is that the Ducks’ defense struggles in the red zone, as well, allowing touchdowns on 70 percent of their opponents’ trips to the red zone, which ranks 120th in the FBS. 

5. Turnovers and explosive plays 

Turnovers and explosive plays can swing an evenly matched game between two great teams and that could prove the case in Miami on Thursday afternoon. Texas Tech is second in the country in turnover margin with a plus-17. The Red Raiders have forced an FBS-best 31 turnovers while only losing 17 in 2025. Oregon is 54thin turnovers forced with 17 on the season. Their turnover margin is plus-6 because the offense rarely turns it over. Long scrimmage plays are another spot that could swing this matchup with Oregon ranking first and Texas Tech tied for second in plays of 20 or more yards. Both are also in the Top 10 in plays that are 30 or more yards.