Fair or foul, college football is as much a game of perception as it is a sport. The perception of the Big 12 is that it lacks the elite programs capable of winning national championships. 

Maybe it is peers with the ACC from top-to-bottom, but it lacks the helmets – think Clemson, Miami, Florida State – that draw national attention. Critics of the league say it doesn’t sign enough blue-chip talent to compete against SEC or Big Ten programs in December and beyond. 

A three-loss Alabama was ranked behind Big 12 champion Arizona State in the final CFP rankings for 2024. Ten-win BYU was ranked behind three SEC programs that ended the year with three loses. The committee announced clearly that they don’t consider the Big 12 to be a two-bid league. That’s now relevant for Texas Tech following its 26-22 road loss to Arizona State in Week 8. 

The Red Raiders can’t count on the same mercy that SEC or Big Ten programs receive after losing on the road, especially to the defending conference champion. Even with a high-dollar roster bolstered with high-end talent, Texas Tech won’t receive an invite to the ball with two regular season losses. 

There were no questions about the talent assembled in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are clearly the most talented team in the Big 12. Any question marks heading into the season about the Red Raiders were about the group’s ability to handle adversity when they faced it. After all, it is a group of perceived mercenaries. And we’ve seen that experiment fail catastrophically at Florida State when the Seminoles faced adversity in 2024. We’re about to find out if the Texas Tech version can band together and answer the bell after a knockdown in the eighth round. Everything was roses until this loss. 

McGuire is a culture guy and the best bet is that this loss doesn’t spiral into multiple losses and, as a result, into a disappointing season. The more pressing concern is at quarterback. Backup Will Hammond showed his promise in the win over Utah, but he showed his inexperience in the loss at Arizona State. The Hutto native was 22-of-37 for 167 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception while adding 47 yards and a score on 15 carries. 

The performance wasn’t awful and the grit he showed down the stretch is why the Texas Tech staff believes Hammond is the future at quarterback. 

But the lack of big plays and the up-and-down play over the first three quarters is why the 2025 squad needs Behren Morton to return and stay healthy. He was available as an emergency quarterback against Arizona State. He can’t miss much more time or the Red Raiders will fall short of 11-1 and a trip to Arlington. 

The 12-team playoff means this loss doesn’t end Texas Tech’s hopes of playing for a national title. To do so, however, the Red Raiders must run the table and do something the program hasn’t done since the 1950s – win an outright conference title. 

The good news for the folks in Lubbock is that the schedule sets up for success. Three of the last five are against the bottom of the conference with home games against Oklahoma State and UCF before closing out the season with a trip to West Virginia. The trip to Kansas State and the home game against BYU, who also entered Week 8 undefeated in conference play, should define the season.