The 2025 college football season is unique in that none of the 13 FBS coaches are on the hot seat entering the year.

Steve Sarkisian, Rhett Lashlee, Jeff Traylor, and G.J. Kinne feel like made men at their respective programs. Scott Abell and Phil Longo are in Year 1. Scotty Walden and Willie Fritz are in Year 2 at jobs that everyone knows needs at least 3-4 years to judge.

That leaves five head coaches that enter 2025 under real pressure. Maybe not to be fired, but to eliminate negative narratives heading into 2026. 

5. Texas A&M coach Mike Elko 

Pressure always exists for the head coach at Texas A&M. The Aggies broke the bank to rid themselves of Jimbo Fisher and start anew with Elko, who led the Aggies to eight wins in Year 1. He’s not on the verge of the hot seat in 2026 if another seven- or eight-win season arrives in College Station, but he was hired with the expectation to elevate the program into SEC championship contention. Going 8-4 simply won’t quench the 12th Man’s thirst. Finishing Year 1 with four consecutive losses to Power Four opponents, including the Horns at home, didn’t help. 

Texas A&M hasn’t won 10 games or more since 2012 – the program’s first in the SEC. The Aggies have finished the season with at least two SEC losses in every year except 2020. With rival Texas on the verge of three straight CFP appearances and already reaching an SEC title game, Elko is undoubtedly under pressure to raise the ceiling in Aggieland. 

4. Baylor coach Dave Aranda

What a difference a year makes. Aranda entered 2024 on arguably the hottest seat in college football. His Bears enter 2025 as a Big 12 title contender. That turnaround is a credit to Aranda. He was slow to the transfer portal and to NIL and it almost cost him the job. He’s accepted the new reality of college football – even if he doesn’t like it that much – and the roster is improved. The hiring of Jake Spavital as offensive coordinator and Aranda’s role as defensive play caller were crucial to the 2024 success. 

But the good vibes are contingent on Baylor reaching its potential in 2025. Aranda’s tenure has been very Jekyll and Hyde with strong seasons in 2021 and 2024 and sub-.500 records in 2022 and 2023. A disappointing 2025 could put him back on the hot seat – or even worse, back on the job market. The Baylor brass want Aranda to succeed and he’ll be given every opportunity to do so in 2025. He’s proven that he can win the Big 12 and he beat rivals TCU and Texas Tech last year. 

3. TCU coach Sonny Dykes

Dykes is an interesting case in pressure. How can a coach who led his team to a national championship game only three seasons ago be this high on the list? Some of it is due to perception. Many feel like he did that with Gary Patterson’s team and the blowout loss to Georgia in that title game dampened some of the good vibes exiting Year 1. TCU then bottomed out the next year and became the first team in a dozen years to miss a bowl game the season after playing for a national title. His Frogs finished 2024 strong and won nine games, but the 3-3 start still lingers in the back of people’s minds. 

College football coaches are also judged against the progress of their closest rivals. SMU and Baylor knocked off TCU last year. Texas Tech is spending tons of money and has won the offseason perception battle. If Baylor and Texas Tech end up in the Big 12 championship game while TCU limps to a .500 or worse finish – the Horned Frogs' team total projection in Vegas is only 6.5 – watch out. TCU has long been the premier team in the Metroplex, but consecutive losses to SMU as the Iron Skillet fades away won’t be a good look.

2. North Texas coach Eric Morris

North Texas fired Seth Littrell because the fan base believes that the Mean Green should be competing for conference championships. That hasn’t materialized in Morris’ first two seasons in Denton, America. He’s 11-14 as the head coach and is 0-3 against in-state rivals UTSA and Texas State. The offense has been great, but Morris isn’t being judged as an offensive coordinator. He’ll be judged by wins and losses. His first major hire – defensive coordinator Matt Caponi – didn’t work out. The arrival of Skyler Cassity might help the Mean Green become a more balanced team and give them a chance in the AAC. 

Like we mentioned with TCU, head coaches aren’t judged in a vacuum. They’re compared to their peers. For North Texas, those are teams like UTSA and Texas State. The Bobcats bested North Texas in last year’s bowl game and are now off to the Pac-12. UTSA has played for three conference championships and beat North Texas in a down year last season. The schedule sets up nicely for Morris & Co. this year and anything less than eight wins will feel like a disappointment. 

1. Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire 

Two things can be true at once. McGuire is the only coach in modern Texas Tech history to post a winning record in conference play in each of his first three years. Spike Dykes didn’t do that. Neither did Mike Leach or Steve Sloan. The last coach to do it for the Red Raiders was DeWitt Weaver from 1951-1953 when the Red Raiders played in the Border Conference. McGuire has met expectations and laid the groundwork for Texas Tech to win its first conference championship since the 1970s. 

But good isn’t good enough anymore in West Texas. The extra resources pumped into the program through facilities, NIL, and the coaching staff mean the ceiling is now the floor in Hub City. Texas Tech won the offseason with a stacked portal class and two excellent hires at coordinator. Now, McGuire & Co. need to win on the field. That means a trip to the Big 12 championship. Anything less than that will feel like a failure, especially with a relatively manageable schedule.