Note: This story is featured in the 2026 edition of Dave Campbell's Texas Football's Summer Magazine, which you can order here.

Dave Aranda admits Baylor was naïve about the revenue share landscape in college football.

The Bears believed that teams in the Big 12 would adhere to the cap and that the enforcement agency – the College Sports Commission (CSC) – tasked with keeping balance within college football would have teeth.  

“At this time last year, no one at Baylor was talking about over-the-cap,” Aranda conceded.  “In “The Lord of the Rings” the hobbits were so comfortable in the shire. They just never believed that evil existed until it was right in front of their doorstep. In the Baylor bubble, that was us.” 

Baylor paid for its roster mismanagement with a 2025 campaign that finished with a 5-7 record – the Bears’ third losing record over the past four seasons and the fourth in six years under Aranda. He estimates that $3 to $4 million of the revenue share money distributed by Baylor was spent on players who stood on the sidelines for most of the season. The Bears spent too much money chasing high-profile high school recruits who simply weren’t ready to play, and many of them are no longer on the team.  

Being a step behind is becoming a trend for Aranda’s Bears. They were slow to the portal and slow to NIL. To his credit, he’s corrected those mistakes and not been stubborn about shifting strategies, but it does feel like the program continues to chase its tail. This offseason was no different, as the program transformed how they spend money and how they build a roster.  

“Our policy now is to reduce the money that is being spent on the high school and up the money that’s going to be spent on the portal and on retention,” Aranda said. With the amount of money we got, the money’s got to be on the field. That’s a huge change.” 

Another huge change was at defensive coordinator. Joe Klanderman was hired to be the new play caller on defense – the fourth since 2022. Aranda called the plays the last two seasons on that side of the ball and the experiment didn’t work. The only Big 12 team that allowed more points than the Bears in 2025 was Oklahoma State. They ranked 11th out of 16 teams in 2024.  

Aranda enters 2026 on the hottest seat in college football and he might’ve been out of a job if not for athletic director Mack Rhoades’ resignation in November. Aranda is 36-37 overall in six years as the head coach at Baylor. His team is 22-28 overall and 15-21 in the Big 12 since the start of the 2022 season.  

Aranda knows he’s under pressure. He’s read the columns, heard the podcasts, and seen the message board posts. He’s not running from how important 2026 is to his future and to the Baylor Bears. He cares deeply about righting the ship and turning his doubters into believers. He’d like to say that the criticism of his tenure the last couple of years hasn’t impacted him on a personal level, but that’d be a lie.  

“I probably care too much so that has been a challenge,” Aranda admitted. “I didn’t know that about myself before coming to Baylor because I really just had a bunch of success before coming to Baylor and I never felt the downs, the losing, or the failure.” 

There is reason for optimism in Waco, however. Baylor is spending money correctly and has poured more resources into the defense than it did when Aranda was calling plays. Missing the bowl game provided the staff with more time to comb the transfer portal for the right fits – on and off the field. But a Week 1 game against Auburn in Atlanta and a fan base on the edge means that Aranda & Co. can’t ease into the season. He thinks the Bears are ready.  

“There is a different feeling with this team. This team is way more connected. Things that were hard at this point last year are easy now.”