Week 13 of the college football season is upon us and there are plenty of stakes on the table for several of the 13 FBS teams in Texas. Six teams – Texas A&M, Texas Tech, North Texas, SMU, Texas, and Houston – still hold chances to reach the College Football Playoff and all six are favored to win this weekend. Programs like UTSA, Rice, Baylor, and Texas State are trying to reach bowl games. 

Twelve of the 13 are in action in Week 12 with Texas Tech idle. The state of Texas is a combined 80-51 on the season and a record five teams are ranked inside the AP Top 25. There is a path for 11 of the 13 programs to make bowl games. That’s the kind of year we’ve experienced inside our border. 

Here’s what we’re thinking about heading into Saturday. 

1. Can Texas avoid late-season collapse?

Steve Sarkisian wants you to know that Texas hasn’t underachieved. He said so in his Monday press conference. But does his tone change if the Horns lose at home to Arkansas? What if they follow that up by losing at home to Texas A&M? Seeing a path for Texas to finish the season 7-5 doesn’t take much squinting. 

Sark is right that he and his Horns didn’t rank themselves No. 1 in the nation entering the year. He didn’t force the media to anoint Arch Manning too soon, either. But he also never backed away from national championship expectations or that this roster could achieve that. Believe me, I sat down with him in late April and had that exact conversation for the cover story of the summer magazine. 

Expectations are normally unfairly high on the Forty Acres. Sark raised those by reaching the semifinals in consecutive season with a roster that he largely inherited and a quarterback that was a seventh-round draft pick. The expectation, inside and outside of the building, was that a quarterback with a higher upside and a roster stocked with former blue-chip talent could lead the Longhorns to the national championship game and possible a title. 

Instead, Texas enters the last two weeks of the season with its playoff chances on life support. FanDuel lists the Horns’ chances to reach the CFP at +1600. Maybe wins over Arkansas and undefeated Texas A&M boost their chances, but we doubt it. Losing by four scores in November is hard to overcome, especially since this team also lost at Florida and needed miracles to beat Mississippi State and Kentucky. We have 10 data points for the Texas football team in 2025 and nine of them suggest that this team doesn’t deserve a playoff bid. The outlier was the Oklahoma win. 

Still, winning the last two, or at least beating Arkansas and then performing well against Texas A&M, would alleviate the building stress in the Texas fan base. The curse of the 12-team playoff is that not reaching it is deemed as a failure. Whether Sark considers that underachieving is his business. The rest of us do. 

2. Will SMU play for the ACC championship? 

The Mustangs don’t control their own destiny to the ACC Championship game despite sitting in a four-way tie with Georgia Tech, Virginia, and Pitt heading into the last two weeks of the regular season. SMU needs to win out and then needs to Georgia Tech to lose to Pitt on Nov. 22 or for Virginia to fall to Virginia Tech on Nov. 29. The Ponies face Louisville at home on Saturday and then travel to Cal in Week 14 to close out the regular season. 

These aren’t unchartered waters for SMU. The Mustangs are 21-1 in conference games since the start of 2023. They won the American on the way out of the conference and played for the ACC championship in Year 1 as Power Four members. Lashlee is 13-1 in November as the head man on the Hilltop and SMU is coming off an idle week. The moment shouldn’t be too big. 

3. Has Houston passed TCU, Baylor in pecking order? 

The Cougars moved up the Big 12 from the G5 ranks ahead of the 2023 season and were clearly fourth in the pecking order inside the state of Texas compared to fellow Big 12 schools TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech. TCU had reached the national championship in 2022 in Year 1 under Sonny Dykes. Joey McGuire also hit the ground running in Lubbock, leading the Red Raiders to wins over Texas and Oklahoma in 2022. Baylor was two years removed from winning the Big 12 championship and the Sugar Bowl. Houston had ground to make up on and off the field to truly become peers with that trio. 

Flash-forward a few years and Houston is 8-2 in Year 2 under Willie Fritz while Baylor and TCU fans are screaming for coaching changes on social media. Time flies, huh? Fortunes can change in an instant in college football, and while Texas Tech and its resources have planted a flag as the top program in the Big 12, Houston can make an argument that its right behind the Red Raiders inside the Lone Star State. 

For one, Houston has the most consistently successful coach of the three. The proximity to Houston talent is an advantage over Baylor, but the Horned Frogs are in the Metroplex so that’s probably a wash. The Coogs can reach the 10-win mark for the first time as Power Four members if they can close with wins over TCU and Baylor. College football success is measured against your rivals and losing to upstart Houston would be another dagger to the heart for Baylor and TCU fan bases that are already in crises mode. 

Picks Against the Spread

SMU -3 over Louisville 
Baylor +6.5 ove Arizona
Arkansas +9.5 over Texas
UTSA +2.5 over East Carolina
Houston -2.5 over TCU
North Texas -17.5 over Rice 

2025 record: 37-29