Turnarounds are part of what makes Texas high school football so compelling. Every season, a handful of teams go from afterthoughts to contenders seemingly overnight.

And according to our 2025 computer projections, these 10 programs are in line for the biggest leaps. Whether it’s a result of a favorable district draw, a loaded group of returners, or just a long-overdue breakthrough, these teams are projected to improve their win totals by as many as six victories compared to last year.

From state powers looking to bounce back to small programs poised for a breakout, here are Texas high school football’s biggest projected risers.

Editor's note — This list does not include Cedar Hill TLC or Dallas Samuell, each of whom forfeited multiple games in 2024, resulting in a final record not indicative of their on-field play.

Arlington Martin

2024 Result: 3-7, missed the playoffs
2025 Projection: 8-4, 6A DI area finalist

It was a frustrating second season for coach Chad Rives and the Warriors, who saw their 18-year playoff streak and five-year district championship streak snapped with a thudding 3-7 campaign, the program's fewest wins since 2003. But don't expect a new trend: the DCTF computer foresees a major bounceback for the Warriors, thanks in large part to strength in the trenches with TCU commit Jesse Ford on defense and bruising tackle Brandon Heath on offense. They're closer to a return to the district title than they are to another November at home.

Belton

2024 Result: 2-9, 5A DII bi-district finalist
2025 Projection: 7-4, 5A DII bi-district finalist

Staring at an ugly 0-7 record, the Tigers rallied to win the games that mattered — edging out Bryan Rudder and Waco — to salvage a playoff spot in 2024 before being unceremoniously drubbed by eventual state champion Richmond Randle in the first round. That's all in the past, though, and Belton is back, welcoming eight starters back on both sides of the ball, most notably quarterback Will Shepard, who won the job as a sophomore after Week 3 last year. That continuity and what should be an improved defense gets the Tigers back into contention.

DeLeon

2024 Result: 7-5, 2A DI area finalist
2025 Projection: 12-3, 2A DI state semifinalist

The Bearcats didn't do themselves any favors in non-district scheduling — they face eventual state champion Muenster, eventual state finalist Stamford and the always dangerous Hawley in the first five games, which resulted in three losses last year. But Region II of Class 2A Division I is about as unpredictable as it gets, and DeLeon looks like a team that can take advantage, with stud quarterback Heston Jobe ready to make a statewide name for himself. Reigning regional champ Hamilton looms large in a Week 11 showdown, but count the Bearcats among the favorites to play in December, despite last year's seven-win season.

Lamesa

2024 Result: 4-7, 3A DI bi-district finalist
2025 Projection: 10-2, 3A DI area finalist

The Tornadoes' 4-7 record last year comes with a bit of an asterisk — by virtue of being in a four-team District 2-3A DI, they played seven non-district games, going 1-6 during that stretch before running off a perfect district title surge to close the year. But their season ended abruptly in the first round of the playoffs to Amarillo River Road — a team that had already beaten them in the regular season. But this year is different, our computer thinks, projecting a 10-win season for the first time since 2000. The difference? An improved defense, as the Tors welcome back 12 total starters including two-way star Cylius McCurley.

Marion

2024 Result: 5-7, 3A DI area finalist
2025 Projection: 10-3, 3A DI regional semifinalist

Much of the conversation in Region IV of 3A Division I will surround Edna and Llano, and rightfully so — they start the year ranked No. 5 and No. 8 in the state, respectively. But don't sleep on Llano's district bunkmate Marion, who could make a huge surge off of its rather bizarre 5-7 season a year ago. Of the Bulldogs' seven losses last season, three of them came by one score, and their experience this year — 13 starters are back, and what should be a highly explosive offense led by quarterback Kade Pape — could put them over the top. Region IV is more than a two-horse race, and Marion aims to prove that.

Odessa Compass

2024 Result: 4-7, 3A DII bi-district finalist
2025 Projection: 9-3, 3A DII area finalist

Let's call a spade a spade — District 3-3A DII was a wild ride in 2024. The four-team district, comprised of far-flung outposts, play the rare double round-robin...and as a result, we got a three-way tie at the top at 4-2 between Alpine, Crane and these Compass Cougars. One team is almost certainly going to emerge from the fray this season, and we think it's Compass — the Cougars are one of the most experienced teams in Texas with 17 starters back, and a second year under coach Boe Smith should do wonders. So, too, should the returns of Braxton Morris and Ryian Farris, two gamebreakers sure to light up west Texas scoreboards. This looks like a team that can get its first playoff victory in program history.

Petrolia

2024 Result: 5-6, 2A DII bi-district finalist
2025 Projection: 10-2, 2A DII area finalist

In some ways, Petrolia ticks every box for what a team on the precipice of a big season tends to look like. A second year under coach Brad Blassingame should help; so should the return of 15 starters, including a one-two punch in the offensive backfield of Brodie Jackson and John Dagenaeis, who should be the tip of the Wing-T spear. But if you're not into the "vibes" and more into the hard numbers, consider this: Petrolia finished with a losing record despite having a positive point differential last season. That's right — the Pirates scored more points than they surrendered last season. If Bill James' Pythagorean expectation is to hold here, the Pirates were just plain unlucky last season, and this could set the stage for a big comeback — including their first 10-win season since playing for the 2002 state championship.

San Antonio Lanier

2024 Result: 5-6, 5A DII bi-district finalist
2025 Projection: 11-1, 5A DII area finalist

This might be our boldest projection in 2025, because we are projecting not just a huge improvement from 2024 for the Voks, but the best season in program history. Consider this: Lanier — which has been playing football since 1930 — has never enjoyed a 10-win season, and it's never finished the regular season unbeaten...but we think 2025 is the year. Why? A fourth year under coach Sal Tellez is key, as every player in the program has continuity with him. But perhaps more importantly, there are 16 starters back from last year's team, including two-way star Bryan Sanchez and quarterback Dylan Cash Llamas. Beyond that, District 12-5A DII looks like it is there for the taking, as the Voks are the most experienced contender in that San Antonio ISD grouping. It's bold, yes, but we think this could be an historic season on West César E. Chávez Boulevard.

Sanger

2024 Result: 4-6, missed the playoffs
2025 Projection: 10-2, 4A DII area finalist

This is a Matt Stepp special — our high school insider has been banging the drum about the Indians all season on our podcast, and it's comforting to see that the computer agrees with him. And honestly, it's easy to see why both the machine and our half-man-half-machine are so high on Chad Rogers' bunch. Ten starters are back for the Indians' offense, both the stars (like running back Reggie Jones, a nearly 1,500-yard rusher last season as a junior) and the glue guys (like all-district lineman Alex Zuniga). But it was defense that kept the Indians out of the playoffs last season, surrendering 32.8 points per game, and it looks like that unit will be markedly better, with junior linebacker Max Taylor leading the revival. And with by far the most experience of any team in District 5-4A DII, it's not too late to be a believer.

Sudan

2024 Result: 6-5, 2A DII bi-district finalist
2025 Projection: 11-2, 2A DII regional semifinalist

Unlike some other teams on this list, the Hornets are no stranger to success — just six years ago, Sudan finished 11-1. But the Hornets' inconsistent defense last season led to a middling result, which may have folks in the West Panhandle thinking the program's on the slide. But! What if we to tell you that in fact, Sudan is on the verge of a major bounceback? On paper, this is a deep, experienced team by 2A Division II standards, bringing back 19 of its 25 lettermen from the 2024 season. And with playmakers at all levels — from dual-threat QB/DB Caleb Groetken to TE/DB Cal Carter to OL/DL Luis Vargas — this feels like a team that is closing the gap rapidly between itself and the rest of the Region I contenders like Gruver, Wink, Stratford and Ropes. Don't say we didn't warn you.