This is our complete preview of the Baylor Bears that you can find in the 2025 Dave Campbell's Texas Football Summer Magazine. To order your own copy, subscribe right HERE.

Ask any rancher or farmer in the Cen-Tex area surrounding Waco for their favorite fable and the one about the cow and the buffalo is sure to be told.  

The abbreviated version to the uninitiated is that both cows and buffalos can sense when a storm is approaching, but their reactions are opposites. The cows turn tail and run from the storm, prolonging their exposure. The buffalo run right through the storm, minimizing the hardship. The moral of the story is to face problems directly and that when discomfort knocks on the door, lean into it.  

Baylor head coach Dave Aranda spent the first few years of his tenure running from storms. He avoided the transfer portal heading into 2022 and it resulted in a 6-7 season. He shied away from utilizing NIL heading into 2023 and the Bears finished 3-9. Aranda, always self-reflective and willing to change, transformed into a buffalo as his grip on the Baylor head coaching job began to slip. The Bears began to profit through the portal with players such as Keaton Thomas and they even posted social media photos of assistant coaches wearing “We Pay Players” shirts at practice.  

Aranda became comfortable being uncomfortable. He openly worries about the current state of college football and the unknown future of college athletics. But he also knows that he can be an agent for the good that remains if he’s out of a job. Towards the end of the 2023 season, Aranda made a choice. He’d hire a new offensive coordinator, one with head coaching experience, so that he could return to calling defensive plays. The skill that landed him the head coaching job in Waco in the first place.  

“I was too worried about individual growth or individual journeys. I was too involved with people’s stories,” Aranda said. “I was doing too much non-football related things and not doing enough football at the same time. I tried to go back to the football coach I was as an assistant or a coordinator and I think that helped us become a better football team.”  

He entered the 2024 season on the hottest seat in college football. Baylor won a program record 12 games and a Big 12 championship in 2021 – his second in charge. The Bears were a combined 9-16 overall and 6-12 in the Big 12 over the next two seasons. Aranda’s seat only warmed following three consecutive losses to conference opponents in 2024.  

The Utah game didn’t count in the Big 12 standings, but it still dropped the Bears to 6-15 against Big 12 opponents since the start of 2022. A 43-21 loss to Iowa State on Oct. 5 felt like the last straw. An inescapable storm. One not even a buffalo, much less a Bear, could outrun.  

A 2-4 Baylor squad rolled into Lubbock two weeks after that loss to Iowa State with no lives left. A loss could’ve been the end of the Aranda era. Instead, his Bears crushed Texas Tech, 59-35, to start a six-game winning streak that not only saved Aranda’s job but changed the forecasts for the entire football program. Baylor entered last with a lame duck head coach. It enters this year as one of the Big 12 favorites.  

Aranda’s Bears return their starting quarterback, best two running backs, top two receivers, and four starters along the offensive line. Defensively, Thomas returns to lead a group that was bolstered once again through the portal.  

“We showed a lot of grit, a lot of maturity, in the second half of last season and that made me way proud,” Aranda said. “As coaches, we try to act like the outside noise and negativity doesn’t bleed into the locker room, but it does. That’s human nature. Our guys could’ve boughten into that negativity and believed it was true. Instead, we believed in our truth. That we’re good enough. That we can win games and execute in the biggest moments.”  

DCTF Take

Dave Aranda entered the 2024 season on the hottest seat in Texas. He enters 2025 with a conference championship contender. That’s how fast fortunes can change in a rowdy and wild Big 12. Baylor returns quarterback Sawyer Robertson, running back Bryson Washington, leading receiver Josh Cameron, and four starters along the offensive line. Aranda will continue calling plays defensively for a unit that must find a pass rush in 2025. Eleven of the 19 transfers added by the Bears in the offseason are on defense, with most of them expected to contribute along the defensive line or in the secondary.   

Offensive Breakdown

Baylor turned the keys to the offense over to Jake Spavital heading into 2024 and it paid dividends. The Bears improved from the 101st scoring offense in 2023 while averaging 23.1 points per game to the 19th best scoring offense last year with 34.4 points per game.  

“He makes life hard on defensive coordinators,” Baylor head coach Dave Aranda said. “He works hard and he’s way prepared. His offense is essentially all the plays defensive coordinators hate to scheme against. The offense saved us at times last year.”  

The Baylor offense could be even better in 2025. That belief is buoyed by the return of quarterback Sawyer Robertson (3,071 passing yards, 28 TD, 8 INT). Robertson entered last year as the backup to Dequan Finn but was quickly elevated to starting quarterback. He threw for at least three touchdowns in six of the team’s final nine games of the year. The Bears added Auburn transfer quarterback Walker White to compete for the backup spot with redshirt freshman Nate Bennett and true freshman Edward Griffin.  

Baylor returns leading receiver Josh Cameron (52 catches, 754 yards, 10 TDs). Cameron is a former walk-on from Cedar Park whose only offer out of high school was to Trinity in Division III. He’s also one of the best returners in the Big 12. News broke after spring ball that Ashtyn Hawkins was not granted an extra year of eligibility and that prompted the Bears to add Colorado State transfer Louis Brown IV in the second window.  

“We’re excited about our passing game,” Spavital said. “Josh (Cameron) is a proven receiver who did well in this system last year and we think we did a good job in the transfer portal to give Sawyer (Robertson) some weapons out wide. We also think we have a game-changer at tight end in Michael Trigg.” 

The two impact transfers to know at wide receiver are Kobe Prentice (Alabama) and Kole Wilson (Texas State). Prentice is a former Top 100 recruit nationally who recorded 31 catches for 337 yards as a freshman at Alabama. He leaves the Crimson Tide with 60 career catches for 780 yards and five scores. Wilson, who began his career at UIW in the FCS ranks, caught 43 passes last year for 630 yards and four scores.  

Tight end Michael Trigg (30 catches, 395 yards, 3 TD) is seen as the X-factor on the offense and Spavital credited his increased offensive involvement as one of the keys to jump starting the six-game winning streak to end the regular season.  

The running game should provide a nice balance for Robertson and the passing attack. Baylor’s top two rushers – Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass – are back on campus. Washington ran for 1,028 yards and 12 touchdowns while averaging 5.9 yards a carry. Pendergrass registered 671 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. Joseph Dodds and incoming freshman Caden Knighten are names to know behind those two.  

The offensive line is also experienced as the Bears return four of their five starters from last year. Sidney Fugar’s introduction into the starting lineup at left tackle last year was a game changer for Baylor, per Spavital. The only new starter is at right tackle where Kaden Sieracki is expected to replace the departing Campbell Barrington.  

Breakout Candidates

WR Kole Wilson – The Texas State transfer played in 25 games over two years for the Bobcats, hauling in 109 catches for 1,377 yards and 12 touchdowns. He’ll excel in Jake Spavital’s offense and can also help on kickoff returns. Wilson began his career at Incarnate Word.

RB Joseph Dodds – A Top 100 in-state prospect in the 2024 class, who starred at Tidehaven High School, took a redshirt last season while recovering from injury. There is a spot open at RB3 behind Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass and Dodds could offer a change of pace.

Projected Starters

QB 13 Sawyer Robertson Sr. 6-4, 220 Lubbock Coronado 

RB 30 Bryson Washington Soph. 6-0, 203 Franklin 

WR 34 Josh Cameron Sr. 6-1, 218 Cedar Park 

WR 19 Kole Wilson Sr. 5-9 165 Katy Paetow 

WR 16 Kobe Prentice Sr. 5-10, 182 Calera, Ala. 

TE 1 Michael Trigg Sr. 6-4, 246 Tampa, Fla. 

LT 69 Sidney Fugar Sr. 6-5, 341 Waldorf, Md.  

LG 62 Ryan Lengyel Sr. 6-5, 310 Jesuit Prep 

C 72 Coleton Price Jr. 6-3, 314 Bowie 

RG 68 Omar Aigbedion Sr. 6-3, 310 Katy 

RT 74 Kaden Sieracki Jr. 6-4, 314 The Woodlands 

K 95 Rhett Armstrong Fr. 6-5, 195 Monument, Colo.  

Keep an eye on

The Bears signed the 40th best recruiting class in the country last year and a few of those true freshmen could make an instant impact on the offensive side of the ball. Running back Caden Knighten received high marks in the spring. Wide receiver Taz Williams Jr. (Red Oak) was a three-star recruit who is a Top 100 wide receiver in the nation. The Bears also signed wide receivers Chase Collier, Jacorey Watson, Ashton Jones, and tight end Brody Wilhelm. Experienced depth in the two-deep could cause most, if not all, to redshirt. The staff loves quarterback Edward Griffin.  

 

By the numbers

34.4 – That’s the number of points Baylor scored per game in 2024, which ranked 19th in the FBS and was fourth most in the state of Texas.

46 – The Bears were the fourth-best offense in allowing tackles for loss behind only run-oriented option teams New Mexico, Army, and Navy.

79 – That’s the total number of 20-plus yard plays for the Bears last year, which was sixth-best in America and tops in the Big 12.

 

Defensive Breakdown

Baylor head coach Dave Aranda put his defensive coordinator hat back on and called plays for the Bears last season. The unit allowed 33.3 points in 2023, checking in at 116th nationally in scoring defense. Last year, the group allowed 26.7 points per game and ranked 81st in scoring defense. Not great, but an improvement.  

“I thought we improved as the season went on in a lot of areas, but we need to get even better this year,” Aranda admitted. “The guys played hard so effort wasn’t an issue, but we’re cleaning up some of the finer points to the defense and working on playing faster and with more confidence.”  

The linebacker unit should be the strength of the defense again this year despite the loss of Matt Jones. Keaton Thomas (114 tackles, 7 TFL, 2.5 sacks) returns to anchor the second level and provide leadership to the entire defense. Aranda and the defensive staff at Baylor think Thomas will play 10 years in the NFL. He’ll be flanked by FIU transfer Travion Barnes, who was the Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year in 2023 after ranking fifth nationally with 129 tackles. That is a staggering 11.73 tackles per game. Barnes missed the spring as he rehabbed from offseason surgery.  

The arrival of Texas A&M transfer nose guard Samu Taumanupepe provides Baylor with a big body in the middle of the defense that the unit was sorely missing the last couple of years. Taumanupepe is listed at 380 pounds, but the coaches say he was closer to 370 during spring practice and they expect him to play at 350-360 pound in the season. The closer he gets to that target weight, the larger his potential impact due to the potential for more snaps. His presence also allows Cooper Lanz to play boundary defensive end in Baylor’s three-man front. He’s better suited at that position at 288 pounds.  

Defensive end Jackie Marshall is poised for a breakout season, per the defensive staff. He was a highly graded player last year but expect his impact and production to grow as he plays more at field defensive end. That should provide him more opportunities to get into the backfield and collect tackles for loss and sacks. Devonte Tezino was another name mentioned along the defensive line.  

Edge rusher might be the biggest unknown for the Bears entering the 2025 season. The group only accounted for 23 sacks last year and the top three sack recorders – Jones, Treven Ma’ae, and Garmon Randolph – are no longer at Baylor. Neither is Steve Linton, who was fifth on the team in sacks. Those four losses accounted for 14 of the team’s sacks. Baylor needs transfer Emar’rion Winston (Oregon) and Matthew Fobbs-White (Tulane) can help increase the pressure off the edge.  

The secondary must improve for Baylor to become an elite defense in the Big 12. The Bears allowed 234.2 yards per game, which ranked 94th out of 134 teams. Aranda hopes a bounce back season from cornerback Caden Jenkins is in the cards. Other players in the mix at cornerback include Tevin Williams and transfers Calvin Simpson-Hunt, Caldra Williford, and KJ Makins. One safety spot is Devyn Bobby’s, while the other is a competition between transfers Devin Turner and Tyler Turner – no relation. 

Breakout Candidates

OLB Matthew Fobbs-White – One of the only glaring question marks for Baylor entering 2025 is off the edge. The Tulane transfer could emerge as the next pass rushing threat for the Bears after totaling 7.5 tackles for loss and four sacks with a PFF pass-rush grade of 91.3.

DB Calvin Simpson-Hunt – Played nine games last year for the national champion Ohio State Buckeyes. Simpson-Hunt is a Waxahachie product who transferred to Baylor with three seasons of eligibility left. He took a redshirt in 2023 and registered four tackles over his two seasons. He can play cornerback or safety.

 

Projected Starters

DE 0 Jackie Marshall Sr. 6-3, 290 LaPlace, La.  

NT 97 Cooper Lanz Sr. 6-3, 288 Denton Guyer 

DT 59 Devonte Tezino Jr. 6-5, 294 Killeen Ellison  

OLB 32 Emar’rion Winston Jr. 6-4, 255 Portland, Ore. 

MLB 11 Keaton Thomas Jr. 6-2, 224 Jacksonville, Fla. 

MLB 36 Travion Barnes Sr. 6-0, 224 Almonte Springs, Fla.  

NB 15 Carl Williams IV Jr. 6-1, 184 Baton Rouge, La. 

CB 8 Caden Jenkins Jr. 6-1, 177 Lewisville 

CB 27 Tevin Williams III Sr. 6-1, 188 Stillwater, Okla.  

SS 13 Devin Turner Sr. 6-2, 212 Frisco Lone Star 

FS 3 Devyn Bobby Sr. 5-11, 196 DeSoto 

P 94 Palmer Williams Jr. 6-2, 201 Advance, N.C. 

Keep an eye on

Carl Williams IV returns and is expected to start once again at the nickel position, but don’t be surprised if Kendrick Simpkins earns a role in the safety rotation as a run-stuffing defensive back who can also provide some pressure from the third level of the defense. The 6-foot, 207-pounder suffered a regular-season ending injury against Colorado and didn’t return until the bowl game. He only played in four regular season games and that allowed him to maintain a redshirt and return for his sixth season. Simpkins began his college career at Western Kentucky, where he started 22 times over 42 games.

By the numbers

26.7 – Baylor allowed nearly 27 points per game and ranked 81st nationally in scoring defense as Dave Aranda called the defense for the first time in Waco.

14 – That’s the number of interceptions tallied by the Baylor defense, which was 27th in the country and fourth most in Texas behind Texas, Texas A&M, and SMU.

63.33 – The Bears struggled with fourth-down defense and allowed first downs on 19 of their opponents’ 30 attempts. They ranked 111th in opponents’ fourth down conversion percentage.

 

Ceiling

11-1

The boom potential for a Baylor team that returns nearly every offensive starter and a strong nucleus of defenders is immense. The first seven games of the season will tell the story and a hot start with wins over Auburn and SMU would shoot the Bears stock to the moon.

Floor

7-5

Even an improved Baylor team could watch its record take a hit thanks to a tough schedule, especially at the beginning of the season. A 1-3 start is possible because of early games against Auburn, SMU, and Arizona State. The Bears also play Kansas State and TCU before the end of October. 

Coach Gossip

“Getting settled at offensive coordinator really helped that program because (Jake) Spavital has done a nice job there in Waco. Offense was their Achilles heel because they struggled to find a system and a quarterback but they had both last year. They’ve done a nice job recruiting, their team looks good, they play hard and physical. I thought they were honestly the best football team we played last year.”

“They’re loaded offensively. It would not surprise me if they were in the Big 12 championship. At the end of last year, they were as good as anybody in the Big 12. They’re a really, really good football team, especially offensively. It is interesting, though, that it has been the defense that’s driven whenever they’ve had successful years.”

“Credit to Baylor for not pulling the plug during the open week last year and giving Dave a chance to turn that around. And credit to him and his team for pulling it off.”

2024 RESULTS

Aug. 31                 Tarleton               W, 45-3
Sept. 7                  at Utah                 L, 23-12
Sept. 14               Air Force             W, 31-3
Sept. 21               at Colorado      L, 38-31 (OT)
Sept. 28               BYU                         L, 34-28
Oct. 5                     at Iowa State   L, 43-21
Oct. 19                 at Texas Tech W, 59-35
Oct. 26                 Oklahoma State            W, 38-28
Nov. 2                    TCU                         W, 37-34
Nov. 16                 at West Virginia              W, 49-35
Nov. 23                 at Houston       W, 20-10
Nov. 30                 Kansas                 W, 45-17
Dec. 31                LSU (Texas Bowl)          L, 44-31
Record: 8-5 (6-3)

2025 PREDICTIONS

Aug. 29                 Auburn                 W
Sept. 6                  at SMU                  L
Sept. 13               Samford              W
Sept. 20               Arizona State  L
Sept. 27               at Oklahoma State      W
Oct. 4                     Kansas State  L
Oct. 18                 at TCU                   W
Oct. 25                 at Cincinnati   W
Nov. 1                    UCF                         W
Nov. 15                 Utah                        W
Nov. 22                 at Arizona          W
Nov. 29                 Houston              W

Record: 9-3 (7-2)

Biggest Game

Sept. 20 vs. Arizona State

Baylor enters the season with Big 12 title aspirations and what better way to lay a marker down early in the season than to beat the defending champs at home in the conference opener? The Bears also host fellow Big 12 contender Kansas State two weeks later.

Trap Game

Sept. 27 at Oklahoma State

The first seven games of the Baylor season include Auburn, SMU, Arizona State, Kansas State, and TCU. Three of those games are at home. One contest that might sneak up on the Bears during that run is a trip to Stillwater to face Mike Gundy’s unpredictable Cowboys.

Upset Bid

Sept. 6 at SMU

Baylor starts the season at home against Auburn before traveling to the Hilltop to face an SMU squad that reached the College Football Playoff last season. A 2-0 start would provide the Bears with momentum to make a run at the Big 12 title and a trip to the College Football Playoff.