ARLINGTON, TX – TCU became the seventh team to play for a national title since the College Football Playoff began during the 2014 season. The Horned Frogs were the first Big 12 team to qualify, and only the second program not named Clemson or Ohio State to qualify from outside the SEC, joining Oregon back in 2014. Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, and Clemson have accounted for 15 of the 18 national title game spots over the last nine years.

The eight previous national runners-up hold a combined 90-17 record in the year following the title game defeats. Oregon fared the worst, finishing the 2015 season at 9-4. Each of the other seven won at least 10 games. Two of those teams – Clemson following the loss to Alabama in 2015 and Alabama the following season – have rebounded to win national titles the year after a championship game loss.

TCU won’t find the road back to the national title game easy, even if it’ll be played a few hours down I-45 in Houston. Sonny Dykes, in only his second year in charge of the Horned Frogs, must reload the ranks after losing their top player at each position unit on offense and defense. Heisman runner-up and starting quarterback Max Duggan is gone. Wide receiver Quentin Johnston, offensive lineman Steve Avila, and defensive back Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, who won the Thorpe Award in 2022, were amongst the eight TCU players selected in the 2023 NFL Draft.

"What made the team really good last year was not focusing on the things we can't control," Dykes said at Big 12 media day. "I don't worry too much about what we lost. The challenge is to find replacements as leaders. If we can do that, we'll be good."

The Horned Frogs were picked to finish fifth in the Big 12 by the media members ahead of the yearly media days. The same group picked them to finish seventh last year, so you’ll excuse Dykes & Co. for not putting too much stock into preseason expectations. The disrespect is understandable, however, because TCU returns only 52 percent of its production from 2022, according to ESPN. That ranks 118th in the nation and second-to-last in the Big 12 in front of only Cincinnati.

The losses weren’t confined to the roster. Former offensive coordinator Garrett Riley left for Clemson. He was replaced by the controversial hire of Kendal Briles, the son of Art Briles, who was the most hated man in Fort Worth for a few years while leading rival Baylor. Art was ousted at Baylor in 2016 amid a sexual assault scandal on the football team while Kendal was the offensive coordinator. He’s since called plays at FAU, Houston, and Arkansas.

"We saw the value of a good run game to become a physical football team last year," Dykes said. "Kendal shares that same vision for our offense. He wants to run the football. That starts up front, and I think we have two excellent offensive tackles to build around."

The player working closest with Briles is expected starting quarterback Chandler Morris. Morris, a former Oklahoma transfer who played high school ball at Highland Park, started the first game of the 2022 season against Colorado before exiting due to injury in the third quarter. Duggan took over in the second half and the rest is history. At least as it pertains to 2022. Morris’ pain in 2022 might be TCU’s gain in 2023. He watched Duggan engineer a 12-0 regular season and a win in the Fiesta Bowl.

The Horned Frogs won’t be without talent. Morris led TCU to a 30-28 victory over a 12-win Baylor squad in 2021, earning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week honors after totaling 531 yards of total offense – the second-most in school history.

Dykes, a long-time benefactor of the transfer portal, added potential starters such as running back Trey Sanders, wide receiver JoJo Earle, and center Patrick Willis in the off-season. The defense returns all-conference performers such as defensive tackle Damonic Williams, linebacker Johnny Hodges, and cornerback Josh Newton. The safety unit might be the best position group on the team.

The biggest question surrounding TCU is subjective – what are reasonable expectations in Year 2 of the Dykes era? Does the ceiling become the floor? Baylor went from 12 wins and a Big 12 crown in 2021 to a 6-7 finish in 2023. An eight-win season feels like a good sign that the purple-colored carriage won’t turn into a pumpkin. A nine-win season to match that of Oregon in 2015 – a year after losing the championship game to Ohio State – should send TCU fans, and observers of the Big 12 at large, to the betting window to buy future stock on the Horned Frogs as the conference losses Oklahoma and Texas while the playoff expands to 12 teams.

"We have a lot of eyeballs on us now, and that's what we want," Dykes said. "We want to be all steak and no sizzle. We want to fly under the radar. Our goal is to overperform and under promise."