REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Longview cruised to the regional title a year ago and enter 2023 as the Region II favorite, but despite the Lobos returning a large amount of talent, the road to the state semifinals will be filled with more potential pitfalls in the always tough Region II race.

Mansfield Timberview absolutely dominated 5-5A Division I a year ago, posting a 13-1 mark before falling to Longview in the regional finals. The Wolves return a stacked group on the defensive side of the ball, but they’ve got a new coach and several new faces on offense. Richland will close the gap on Timberview but not enough to dethrone the Wolves. Birdville graduated heavy as well, so that gives Newman Smith and WT White both a realistic shot at third place; that Week 10 Thursday game between Newman Smith and WT White is likely going to be for the final playoff spot in the district.

There are a couple of distinct tiers in 6-5A Division I heading into the season. The top tier features three teams who have a legitimate shot at the district title in Lone Star, Reedy and Wakeland; all three won playoff games a year ago, with Reedy winning the district and going three rounds deep. The Lions have the defense to get it done, but does the offense have enough firepower after graduating seven starters? That may open the door for Lone Star, but don’t count Wakeland out; the Wolverines have the best QB in the district and some dynamic weapons, but the defense will have to improve. It’s a four-team race for the final playoff spot between Sherman, Frisco Heritage, Frisco Centennial and Frisco High with Sherman getting edge over Heritage, primarily because this year’s game is in Sherman.

Longview and Lancaster are expected to battle it out for the district title, and there’s a decent chance these two teams play twice in 2023. This year’s regular season meeting is in Lancaster which may give WEBO a slight edge (at least in the regular season). Forney is a good bet for the third spot as the Jackrabbits made big strides a year ago and should be even better in 2023. McKinney North got the final playoff spot in the district a year ago, but this year they’ll have to beat Lufkin and Tyler in East Texas to get into the playoffs and doing that double will be tough.

Down in Southeast Texas, Port Arthur Memorial is the favorite to win 8-5A Division I as its coming off a district title and 11-win season. Keep an eye on the Titans loaded group of sophomores who could keep them in the discussion for much bigger in the next couple of seasons. Barbers Hill’s strong close to the 2022 season gives the Eagles the nod for second and the chance to host a bi-district playoff game against a DFW team, which is a major advantage. Kingwood Park, who finished fourth last year, brings a dozen starters back should be in the playoff mix along with La Porte, which made major strides under first-year head coach Kevin Berneathy. Crosby hired Joe Willis late in the offseason, but the Cougars will be young and adapting to new schemes at the same time so don’t be surprised if they struggle a bit.

DISTRICT PREDICTIONS

District 5-5A Division I

1. Mansfield Timberview
2. Richland
3. Birdville
4. Carrollton Smith
5. Dallas White
6. Dallas Adams
7. Dallas Molina
8. Carrollton Turner
9. Dallas Sunset

District 6-5A Division I

1. Frisco Lone Star
2. Frisco Reedy
3. Frisco Wakeland
4. Sherman
5. Frisco Heritage
6. Frisco
7. Frisco Centennial
8. Frisco Lebanon Trail
9. Frisco Liberty

District 7-5A Division I

1. Lancaster
2. Longview
3. Forney
4. Lufkin
5. McKinney North
6. Tyler
7. West Mesquite
8. North Mesquite

District 8-5A Division I

1. Port Arthur Memorial
2. Barbers Hill
3. Humble Kingwood Park
4. La Porte
5. New Caney Porter
6. Crosby
7. Baytown Lee
8. Goose Creek Memorial
9. Baytown Sterling

PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS

W5 Mansfield Timberview vs F6 Sherman

R8 Barbers Hill vs T7 Forney

W6 Frisco Lone Star vs F5 Carrollton Smith

R7 Longview vs T8 Humble Kingwood Park

W7 Lancaster vs F8 La Porte

R6 Frisco Reedy vs T5 Birdville

W8 Port Arthur Memorial vs F7 Lufkin

R5 Richland vs T6 Frisco Wakeland

REGIONAL CHAMPION

Longview over Lancaster