The Baylor Bears should move on from head coach Dave Aranda. If not during the open week, after the 2025 season.

The 41-20 loss to Cincinnati on Saturday dropped his program to 4-4 on the season and 2-3 in Big 12 play. They’ll need to win at least two of the next four, which include home games against UCF, Utah, and Houston and a trip to Arizona, to reach a bowl game and have a chance to finish with a winning record. 

Aranda is now 35-34 overall and 23-27 against the conference over halfway through Year 6. His high was the 2021 season when he led the Bears to 12 wins and a Big 12 championship with a roster mostly left over from the Matt Rhule era. Since that season, the Bears are 21-25 overall and 14-19 against the Big 12. Three of his five full seasons in charge have finished below .500, including two of the last three. 

The six-game winning streak to end 2024 was supposed to signal a corner turned. Aranda convinced athletic director Mack Rhoades and the Baylor brass that his move to defensive play-caller and the hire of high-octane offensive coordinator Jake Spavital, who held head coaching experience, would return the Bears to Big 12 contention. Twenty-one games into that experiment, Baylor looks as average as ever, and the 4-4 record proves it. 

The main issue plaguing the Bears over the last few years is the defense and that’s concerning because that is Aranda’s side of the ball. The unit gave up 41 to a Cincinnati offense that was averaging 37.9 entering the game. Last week, they allowed a TCU offense to gain more rushing yards against them than the Frogs had against the previous three conference foes combined. Look at what Auburn’s offense was against Baylor in Week 1 and what it has been against every other Power Four team its faced. 

Baylor entered Week 9 with the 118th scoring defense in the country, allowing 31.4 points per game. Since the start of the 2022 season, the Bears have allowed 28.9 points per game and haven’t had a season where they’ve allowed fewer than 26.7 points per game. They’re 112th in rushing defense, 106th in total defense, 123rd in sacks, 111th in tackles for loss, and 89th in turnovers forced. Opponents convert 41.28 percent of their third downs – 90th in the country – and are 100th in opponent red zone touchdown percentage. 

The saving grace of Baylor in the back half of 2024 and when successful in 2025 is the offense. The hiring of Spavital was the right one. The Bears average 36.3 points per game – 23rd in the nation – and have one of the best triplets in the Big 12 with quarterback Sawyer Robertson, running back Bryson Washington, and wide receiver Josh Cameron. The problem is that offense must play perfect or the team has no chance. Even when they do play perfect, that only gives them a 50 percent chance. 

What is the play if Rhoades & Co. decide to keep Aranda and run it back for Year 7? The stands are already empty and the Nov. 1 contest with UCF at McLane will look embarrassing on television. Robertson and Cameron are graduating and headed towards the NFL, as are some key pieces along the offensive line. There is no guarantee Spavital doesn’t get a bigger OC job, or even another crack at the G5 ranks with a crowded coaching carousel underway. How do you get the fan base to buy any hope in the future, especially if everything that’s made the last two seasons enjoyable are no longer in Waco? 

If Aranda was the defensive coordinator, he’d be fired after the season. He’s already gone through multiple coordinators on both sides of the ball. There are no more cards to play. Baylor gave him every opportunity, and it simply didn’t work. That doesn’t mean Aranda can’t coach. He’ll last five minutes on the market before some NFL or college team hires him as a defensive coordinator. But his tenure at Baylor is trending in the wrong direction, and it is time for the Bears to admit that and move on. 

The only reasons to keep Aranda are to not pay the buyout and/or to avoid jumping into a coaching carousel that could involve two dozen teams. But scared money doesn’t make money. With in-state rivals like Texas Tech, TCU, and now Houston jumping to the front of the Big 12 line, the Bears must act now.