WACO, TX – Ongoing construction on I-35 heading north through Waco seemed finished for a fleeting moment in 2024. All lanes were open and there was smooth sailing over the Brazos and towards the kolaches in West. Likewise, the Dave Aranda project looked like it was finally on track as his Bears ended the 2024 season with six straight regular season wins. 

The familiar sight of construction equipment and blocked lanes were back in Central Texas by 2025. And in McLane Stadium, doubt was creeping back into the minds of the Baylor faithful as Baylor dropped its second home game of the 2025 season, this time on a last-second field goal to defending Big 12 champion, Arizona State. 

Baylor (2-2, 0-1) is an enigma. The only consistency in the Aranda era is inconsistency. When the offense is rolling, the defense collapses. Against the Sun Devils on Saturday night, it was the usually reliable Baylor offense that let the team down with three turnovers that turned into nine Arizona State points. The defense played well; all things considered.

Baylor is now 21-25 in the Big 12 under Aranda. His mark in conference play since the 2021 Big 12 championship is 12-16. The Bears are 11-12 at home in conference play during his tenure and he’s now 32-31 overall as the head coach in Waco. Since the start of the 2022 season, they’ve lost 12 of their 16 home games against Power Four competition. 

College football is only as fun as it is miserable for your rivals. Baylor measures itself against the other three in-state Big 12 programs. Well, Texas Tech is 4-0 and just scored a huge road win at Utah. TCU is 3-0 after beating SMU. Houston is also 3-0. The Bears are falling behind and losing big games at home is becoming the norm. 

Bears lose in the margins: Close games come down to small details and it was Arizona State that avoided big mistakes despite being the road team. The Sun Devils won the turnover battle 3-0 and turned those Baylor mistakes into nine points. They won by three. 

The Bears also committed seven penalties for 75 yards, including a costly personal foul penalty on Arizona State's game-winning drive, and had a busted coverage defensively on 3rd-and-13 late in a pivotal drive that turned into a touchdown a couple of plays later. Sometimes football is pretty simple. 

The Bears aren’t good enough to overcome those types of mistakes against quality teams. And they shouldn’t be the team making those mistakes when playing at home. Baylor received a solid game from a defensive unit that was the clear weak link and still couldn’t hold serve at home. Complimentary football is a buzz word used by coaches at every level and the Bears don’t do that well. 

Déjà vu? Baylor is in familiar position. The team started 2-4 last season before rallying late with six straight wins to get back into contention. That included an 0-3 record in Big 12 play. The Bears are 2-2 overall and 0-1 in conference play after the loss to Arizona State, but the schedule sets up to help the Bears rebound. Next up is a trip to Stillwater to face an Oklahoma State team that already looks done on the season. After that is a home game against a Kansas State team that hasn’t played up to expectations.

Win those and that sets up a pivotal Big 12 clash on the road against TCU. Baylor doesn’t play Big 12 favorites Iowa State or Texas Tech in the regular season. Utah and Houston come to Waco. The season is only a month in and everything is still on the table for the Bears. Arizona State won the Big 12 last season with two conference losses. In fact, both teams that reached the 2024 Big 12 Championship game were 7-2 in conference play. 

Why the apathy in Waco? The attendance, or lack thereof, was jarring from the press box at McLane Stadium. The announced attendance was just north of 40,000, but no more than 35,000 were inside the stadium for the Big 12 opener against the defending conference champion. By the time Baylor took a 17-16 lead in the fourth quarter, even fewer were still near their seat. Even the fans inside the stadium weren’t as loud and rowdy as a Baylor team fighting for a huge home win in the Big 12 deserved. 

The loss to Auburn in Week 1 was disappointing and home results haven’t been exceptional over the last few years, but fans can’t expect more from the team than they do from themselves. The Bears have won eight of their last nine regular season games and are two weeks removed from beating SMU in a thrilling come from behind overtime victory on the road. 

Those who did attend and stay throughout the game were treated to an absolute banger between two teams that could win the conference. Contrast it to what we saw in an earlier Big 12 battle in Salt Lake City between Texas Tech and Utah and it is even more alarming. And that was at 10 a.m. local time compared to a night game in Waco.