FRISCO – The win totals during the Dave Aranda era look like he was playing darts for the first time: 2, 12, 6, 3, 8. The nearly .500 overall record of 31-30 through five seasons doesn’t paint an accurate picture of the swings experienced by the Baylor faithful since the start of the 2020 season. For a man with such an even-keeled nature, his teams can run hot and cold.

The highs have been high – most notably a program record 12 wins in 2021, which included a Big 12 championship and a win over Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl. The lows were low. The bottom was a 3-9 campaign in 2023 that began with a home loss to Texas State and ended with an 0-6 record at McLane Stadium against FBS teams and a 2-7 mark in Big 12 play. 

The 2024 season was a perfect encapsulation of the Aranda experience. The Bears started the season with a 2-4 mark and entered the road game against Texas Tech last year on a razor’s edge. A loss could’ve ended Aranda’s run. Instead, Baylor won. And then the team never lost again until the bowl game. 

“We learned how to win,” Baylor star quarterback Sawyer Robertson told Dave Campbell’s Texas Football on the first day of Big 12 Media Days. “Before (the Texas Tech game), we were snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. After we won that first game, we started rolling. Hoping to keep that momentum heading into this year.”

Aranda knows evolution is the key to survival. He came around on the transfer portal after a disappointing 2022 season and bought into NIL after that three-win team in 2023 wasn’t talented enough to compete in the Big 12. Ahead of 2024, he hired an offensive coordinator with head coaching experience – Jake Spavital – so Aranda himself could put his defensive coordinator hat back on. The one he wore at LSU in 2019 when the Tigers won a championship. 

But transfers and above-board payments to players weren’t the only changes in college football since the last time Aranda called defensive plays. He was on the front foot of defensive minds who began cracking the Air Raid code a decade ago. Football is cyclical, however, and the offenses have evolved in a way that forced Aranda to rethink his attack. 

“The things we called in 2015, 2016 could never work right now,” Aranda said. “The offenses in college football were one way and the things that we were doing in those times were effective in attacking where they were… The offenses have flipped it on us and now the things they do are designed to attack those schemes we were once successful with.”

As Aranda came to grips with how to attack modern offenses, Baylor turned the corner. The emergence of Bryson Washington in the run game unlocked Robertson and the Bears offense. The combination unleashed Baylor’s potential and removed Aranda from the proverbial hot seat. Baylor was picked 12th in the 2024 Preseason Big 12 Media Poll. The conference eliminated that practice ahead of 2025 but it is a safe bet to assume the Bears would’ve been in the Top 5 heading into 2025. 

Aranda doesn’t differentiate between positive and negative feedback from the outside world. It is all poison that can ruin a good team. Every player who spoke at Big 12 Media Days – all six of them – said that Aranda was the same man at 2-4 last year as he was at the end of the six-game winning streak. The results might change, but Aranda’s strength is that he remains the same. 

“The outside is always going to get into the inside some, but the more you’re focused on what you have to get done today and winning today, the less that noise from the outside matters," he said. “We don’t talk about (rankings or predictions) as a team. When I see that stuff on my phone, I scroll by it real fast. I do find ways to address it by constantly pushing the day-to-day stuff at a higher level.” 

But even the reserved Aranda admits that his Bears possess the required ingredients to win a Big 12 championship. The talent level that helped Baylor win big in 2021 is restored thanks to improved recruiting and a willingness to play the game off the field. Leadership is improved with Robertson and linebacker Keaton Thomas leading the charge. Spavital and Aranda are two of the most respected play callers in the game. And Aranda says this is the deepest roster he’s coached. 

In a crowded Big 12, is that enough?