Dave Aranda entered the 2024 season on the hottest seat in Texas. He enters 2025 with a conference championship contender. That’s how fast fortunes can change in a rowdy and wild Big 12.

Baylor returns quarterback Sawyer Robertson, running back Bryson Washington, its top wide receiver in Josh Cameron, and four starters along the offensive line. Aranda will continue calling plays defensively for a unit that must find a pass rush in 2025. The secondary figures to be the strength of the defense with Caden Jenkins and Devyn Bobby amongst the returning starters. 

BAYLOR BEARS 

2024 record: 8-5

Overview

The Baylor schedule is front loaded with stiff competition. But if the Bears survive and thrive, they could make a run for the Big 12 title game because they should be favored in each of the last five games. We’ll know how good Dave Aranda’s team is by Sept. 6, thanks to a home game against Auburn and a road contest with SMU in Week 1 and 2, respectively. Three of the first four Big 12 games are against Arizona State, Kansas State, and TCU. 

Biggest Game – Sept. 20 vs. Arizona State

Baylor enters the season with Big 12 title aspirations and what better way to lay a marker down early in the season than to beat the defending champs at home in the conference opener? The Bears also host fellow Big 12 contender Kansas State two weeks later.

Trap Game – Sept. 27 at Oklahoma State

The first seven games of the Baylor season include Auburn, SMU, Arizona State, Kansas State, and TCU. Three of those games are at home. One contest that might sneak up on the Bears during that run is a trip to Stillwater to face Mike Gundy’s unpredictable Cowboys. 

Upset Bid – Sept. 6 at SMU

Baylor starts the season at home against Auburn before traveling to the Hilltop to face an SMU squad that reached the College Football Playoff last season. A 2-0 start would provide the Bears with momentum to make a run at the Big 12 title and a trip to the College Football Playoff. 

Can’t Lose – Aug. 29 vs. Auburn 

I know this is an out-of-the-box pick because Auburn is currently a slight favorite to win this Week 1 game in Waco but hear me out. This is bigger than Baylor. The College Football Playoff is an invitational. A beauty pageant, really. And the Big 12 needs style points. Baylor is a real contender to win the conference title and those can’t be losing to mid-tier SEC teams if the Big 12 wants two bids come December. This game will set an early narrative for strength of schedules.  

Most Important Stretch – Sept. 20 – Oct. 18

The first two games against Auburn and SMU will set the narrative for Baylor, but the four-game stretch to start Big 12 play will determine its fate. That starts with a home game against defending champion Arizona State in Week 4 and ends a month later at TCU. Between that is a trip to Oklahoma State and a home game against Kansas State. Reaching the Big 12 championship game likely requires a 3-1 record over those four games. If Baylor loses to Auburn and SMU to start the season, the Bears could be sub-.500 with five games left. 

Full Schedule

Aug. 29                 Auburn                 
Sept. 6                  at SMU                  
Sept. 13               Samford              
Sept. 20               Arizona State  
Sept. 27               at Oklahoma State      
Oct. 4                     Kansas State   
Oct. 18                 at TCU                   
Oct. 25                 at Cincinnati   
Nov. 1                    UCF                         
Nov. 15                 Utah                        
Nov. 22                 at Arizona           
Nov. 29                 Houston