AUSTIN, TX – The politicking began as soon as the final whistle blew in Texas’ 27-17 win over Texas A&M on Black Friday. Steve Sarkisian believes that his Longhorns deserve a third straight trip to the College Football Playoffs and he brought receipts to the postgame interview before he walked off the field with a signature win at DKR. 

He reminded the nation after the win that his Longhorns are the first team since 2019 LSU to beat three top 10 teams in the regular season and that they’ve played three of the current top four teams in the country. He also pointed out that Texas has the fifth-hardest strength of schedule and outgained Ohio State by 200 yards in the road loss to start the season. 

“I think we’re absolutely a playoff team,” Sarkisian said. 

And it is hard to argue if the defining metric of a team is who they can beat. On its best day, the Longhorns are as good as anybody in the nation. They dominated the second halves in double-digit wins over rivals Oklahoma and Texas A&M. They dominated Vanderbilt for most of the game before allowing a comeback that lowered the margin of victory to three. No one in the country has three better wins than Texas. 

The losses shouldn’t hurt the Horns much, either. Well, at least not two of them. The first was on the road to Ohio State and Texas had the ball at midfield with a chance to tie the game with two minutes left in the contest. Another loss was on the road to Georgia. Sarkisian was quick to point out that his team shouldn’t be punished for scheduling hard. If the Longhorns don’t play at Ohio State and instead opt for a non-conference schedule like Indiana, they’d be a lock to reach the CFP. 

“Do you not want us to play Ohio State?” Sarkisian asked rhetorically. “If we’re a 10-2 team, this isn’t a discussion, we’re in the playoff.” 

The only real talking point to exclude the Longhorns from the CFP is the loss to Florida back in early October. No one, not even folks wearing burnt-orange sunglasses, will deny that it was a bad loss. The offensive line was dominated by the Gators in The Swamp and Texas looked far from a CFP contender in the 29-21 loss. But Sarkisian even had an answer for that after the game. 

“The team that played for the national championship last year lost to Northern Illinois.” 

The fate of Texas won’t be decided by Sarkisian, however. The CFP committee ranked Texas 16th entering Week 14. The 10-point win over the Aggies, who were undefeated and ranked third before this loss, will undoubtedly propel the Longhorns up the rankings, but by how much likely depends on other results on Saturday. 

Texas needs some help over the next two weekends. That would include a Michigan loss to Ohio State on Saturday because the Wolverines are ranked one spot ahead at 15th. Other teams standing in Texas’ way to a top 12 ranking include Vanderbilt, Utah, Miami, BYU, and Notre Dame. The Horns beat Vanderbilt. Utah is likely locked out of the Big 12 Championship game. BYU will be a double-digit underdog to Texas Tech if both reach Arlington. Miami’s best win is over a Notre Dame squad that lost to the Texas A&M team at home that the Longhorns just beat. 

Let’s look at which teams are locks for the playoffs and how many spots are up for grabs. From the Big Ten, Ohio State and Indiana are in regardless of what happens over the next couple of weeks. Same for Texas A&M, Georgia, and Ole Miss in the SEC. Oregon is in with a win over Washington on Saturday, as is Alabama if the Crimson Tide beat Auburn. The Big 12 and ACC champion and the G5 representative will receive auto-bids. Oklahoma also feels like a lock at 10-2 with a win over LSU tomorrow. 

So, if the favorites win this weekend, that means 11 of the 12 spots are spoken for with Texas left to battle it out with the likes of Notre Dame, Miami, and the Big 12 runner-up (likely BYU) for the last spot. A nightmare scenario for the teams on the bubble would be if BYU upset Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship game because then the Red Raiders would be thrown into the mix. 

If the last spot comes down to Texas, Miami, BYU, and Notre Dame, what does the committee do? So far, the group seemingly favors the Fighting Irish, which rank ninth and four spots in front of a Miami team that beat them and hold the same record. That’s despite Notre Dame’s best wins coming against USC and Pitt. 

Miami’s only win against a team currently ranked was in Week 1 over Notre Dame. BYU probably has the best resumé, at least on paper, of the three teams competing with the Longhorns for the last spot because of wins over Utah, Arizona, and Cincinnati.  

The SEC spent the entire offseason on a bully pulpit preaching about how much strength of schedule should matter. Three-loss Alabama and Ole Miss were left out last season for an 11-2 SMU squad that lost in the ACC Championship game and then were trounced by Penn State in the first round. Texas could be the benefactor from those talking points, especially if the committee is worried about the precedent it would set to leave out Texas because of a non-conference loss to Ohio State.