In April 2024, the biggest storyline for Baylor Athletics was if Scott Drew would leave the Bears to become the head basketball coach at Kentucky. 

I was in town for the yearly summer magazine stop to talk to Dave Aranda, who was retained after a disappointing 2023 campaign, when he walked into athletic director Mack Rhoades’ office and convinced the Baylor brass that he could right the ship if he took over defensive play calling duties, hired an offensive coordinator with a modern scheme and head coaching experience, and leaned into the transfer portal and NIL. 

Before my interview with Aranda and a couple of players in the Baylor facility, I stopped at Dubl-R Old Fashioned Hamburgers and ordered a Dubl-Dubl with bacon and jalapenos. As it was being made, a cook in the back was holding a loud conversation with a regular about Drew’s pending decision. 

“Coach Drew should stay at Baylor,” he shouted over the noisy kitchen. “Kentucky will fire you for not winning a national championship. We don’t even fire head football coaches for only winning three games.”  

We all laughed but it turns out that the cook was a prophet. There was truth in the joke. Aranda dodged another bullet last week when Baylor University president Linda Livingstone stated in an email that the Bears would retain him for the 2026 season despite another season careening toward a losing season, which would be the third in the last four seasons and the fourth in six years under Aranda. 

This decision wasn’t made in a silo, obviously. The circumstances surrounding the Aranda decision can’t be overstated. If Rhoades didn’t resign as AD after a fall filled with personal controversy, including a run-in with star tight end Michael Trigg, Aranda is no longer the head coach at Baylor. The administration decided that searching for a new head football coach while simultaneously searching for a new athletic director was too daunting. Add in a large buyout and the new reality of needing money for a roster and the Aranda decision makes more sense. 

But even if the decision makes sense on paper, the backlash from it by the Baylor fan base is more than understandable. Joy in college football is measured against your peers. When they’re doing better than you, you’re miserable as a fan. When you’re better than your rivals, life is great. The Bears have been passed up by their peers in the Lone Star State and that makes keeping Aranda even more painful. 

TCU went to a national championship game in 2022 and the Frogs are 5-1 against Baylor in the Aranda era. Joey McGuire was the other finalist for the Baylor job when Aranda was hired ahead of the 2020 season and he’s currently leading a Top 10-ranked Texas Tech program that has splashed enough cash to move them to the front of the line in the Big 12. Even an SMU team that the Bears beat this year on the road is two more wins away from reaching the College Football Playoff for the second year in a row. New Big 12 members Houston has won eight games in Year 2 under Willie Fritz. 

When Aranda was hired, Baylor was no worse than fourth in the Texas college football pecking order behind Texas, Texas A&M, and maybe TCU. Now? They’re no better than sixth with Texas Tech and SMU jumping them in terms of perception and success, and Houston has an argument to be made that would place Baylor at seventh in Texas out of seven Power Four programs. 

The decision makers in Waco have a decision to make: Do they want Baylor to matter in the modern landscape of college football or should they throw all those resources to Drew’s basketball team and return to national prominence on the hardwood? Winning in college football in the revenue-sharing era takes a competent, aggressive coaching staff and a $20 million roster. Maybe the pockets aren't deep enough to compete head-to-head with Cody Campbell at Texas Tech or Bill Armstrong at SMU, but do the mega donors have the stomach to even try? 

So far, the answer is a resounding no. Houston and TCU’s advantage is proximity to talent. Texas and Texas A&M’s are tradition. SMU and Texas Tech’s are money. Baylor made up the ground for years with quality coaching under Art Briles and Matt Rhule. They helped the Bears outkick their coverage for a decade and made Baylor a true contender in the Big 12 that would’ve reached the 12-team playoff multiple times from 2011-2019 if it existed then. 

Aranda’s lone high came in 2021 when the Bears won the Big 12 and a program record 12 games. Since then, eight wins is the high-water mark and three of the four seasons have ended under .500. He’s 36-36 as the head coach in Waco and has a losing record against the Big 12. 

Maybe it works. Virginia kept Tony Elliott after a disappointing 2024 season, used the money that saved from avoiding the buyout on the roster, and now the program is on the doorstep of an ACC Championship game and a trip to the College Football Playoff. Florida State, Wisconsin, and Maryland made similar decisions as Baylor to keep an embattled head coach to avoid the huge price tag of change. Aranda has proven he can win big with the right roster. The only issue is that he didn't put together that specific roster - Rhule & Co. did. 

The next athletic director has a big job in front of him or her. McLane Stadium won’t be full in 2026 and most of the fan base is revolting online. The non-conference schedule includes Auburn on the road and SMU at home. Lose both of those games and Aranda might not make it to October. The Bears must decide if they want to sit at the big-boy table and contend for a spot in Tier 1 of the Big 12 in football.